The MVP award has essentially become a “best quarterback” award, with rare exceptions. No non-quarterback has won the MVP award since Vikings running back Adrian Peterson took the distinction over Peyton Manning in 2012. In the current century, a non-quarterback has won MVP just four times: Marshall Faulk in 2000, Shaun Alexander in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and Peterson in 2012. This year, a couple of running backs deserve serious consideration, based on what we’ve seen for four weeks. Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is a touchdown waiting to happen, on any play. His 59-yard touchdown run on the first drive Monday night in New Orleans set the tone for the Atlantas’ 45-24 victory. Through four games, Robinson has 494 rushing yards and 120 receiving yards and five total touchdowns. Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III has become the final straw in Kansas City’s cocktail. He has 537 rushing yards, 84 receiving yards and six total touchdowns. He is also the third player in NFL history to have 170 or more rushing yards in two of the first four games of a season, joining only Jim Brown and OJ Simpson. Both Robinson and Walker have 99 touches. Walker has gained 621 yards. Robinson has won 614. When it comes to MVP betting odds (which are instructive of the general perceptions that are sure to influence some or many of the Associated Press 50 voters), both Robinson and Walker are low on the list. Robinson, who was 70-1 when Simms and I discussed the dynamic this morning on PFT Live, is now 60-1. Walker is 50-1. Currently, the eight most likely players on the odds list are quarterbacks. Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs is 30-1, which may be a reflection of bets placed on him before the season began. (He has 102 touches and 540 yards from scrimmage, with seven touchdowns.) Here is the real question. Is the perception of “value” skewed by the fact that top quarterbacks make much more money than top quarterbacks? The top of the quarterback market is approaching $65 million a year. Gibbs, the highest-paid running back, earns $22.5 million a year. Robinson earns $22.25 million a year. Walker, who signed as a free agent months before Robinson and Gibbs’ deals were finalized, earns $14.35 million per year. (To put it equivalently, Gibbs’ deal is worth $16.995 million per year since signing, Robinson’s deal averages $16.36 million since signing.) The best running backs are much more valuable to their teams than the market suggests. The existing market held back Walker, Robinson and Gibbs. The increased risk of injury at the position is a major factor in teams’ unwillingness to take on the financial risk of the player ever being unavailable. While his “value” may not be adequately reflected in his contracts, it should be recognized in his consideration for the MVP award. Current betting trends show that this is not the case. Whether it is will come down to voters’ ability and willingness to stop looking at the MVP as a quarterback award and start looking at the definition of the award, as the AP put it. “The player who was most valuable to his team throughout the season.” Robinson and Walker fit together perfectly. Gibbs will too, if the Lions can rebound from a slow start and become real contenders.
