The Memorandum of Understanding aimed at ending the fighting between the United States and Iran is set to expire on Monday, with few signs that either side is willing to extend the agreement, which both sides have accused each other of violating for weeks. “We have not yet made a decision to restart negotiations with the United States,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a Telegram post on Saturday. Meanwhile, mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continued to exchange messages with Iran. Araghchi added that Iran was working on a separate agreement with Oman to discuss new sea routes for the Strait of Hormuz, but stressed that this was only possible if a political solution was reached. On the American side, President Donald Trump told supporters in New York on Friday that the United States would soon claim the critically important waterway for itself. Here’s what you need to know when the MoU expires. What is the MoU? The agreement, signed on June 17 by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, followed rare high-level talks hosted by Pakistan. Their goal was to end more than three months of war that had killed thousands of people and paralyzed trade movement in the Gulf, especially oil and gas exports on which the world depends. Leaving complex issues such as Iran’s nuclear program to be dealt with later, the agreement sought not only to find an immediate diplomatic solution to stop the war with Tehran, but also to end the conflict in Lebanon. Iran and the United States, the agreement said, “declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations” and that a “final agreement” would “confirm the permanent end of the war on all fronts.” The agreement said that this “final agreement” would be endorsed by the UN Security Council and would be reached in a maximum of 60 days, which could be extended by mutual agreement. The United States was to end its naval blockade within 30 days, withdraw its forces from the vicinity of Iran after the “final deal” was reached, and begin work on a reconstruction and development package for Iran of at least $300 billion. Washington also agreed to end sanctions against Iran, issue waivers for Iranian oil exports and allow Tehran access to frozen funds. Iran, for its part, had to clear the mines from the Strait of Hormuz and allow ships to pass “without charges” for 60 days. Tehran also reaffirmed that it would not pursue nuclear weapons and would negotiate issues such as enrichment, the details of which would be set out in a “final agreement” that would be endorsed by the UN. Was the MoU successful? Although the American and Iranian versions of the agreement differed slightly, much of the dispute since its signing has centered on more basic issues, such as whether it was a ceasefire or a more permanent agreement and what each side was supposed to do. It was soon disputed whether the entire agreement was still in force, and on June 27, Trump called Iranian attacks in the region “a foolish violation” of the agreement. Iran said the US strikes “violate Article 1 of the Memorandum of Understanding.” On July 7, Trump said the deal was “over” and the United States continued to launch attacks against Iran, including against what Tehran called civilian infrastructure, killing at least 50 people. Iranian officials said the United States had “violated and suspended” all of its commitments and Tehran had “also suspended all of our own commitments.” Since then, the United States has not fully lifted sanctions against Iran and Trump has scoffed at the idea of paying Iran for reconstruction, suggesting instead that Tehran pay compensation to the families of protesters it had killed “over the last 50 years” as well as “all the people it has killed and seriously injured with its roadside bombs and many conflicts.” Hormuz has also not materialized, and Iranian and American officials continue to insist that their side controls the strait. Earlier this week, the Pentagon said it had fired on a Panama-flagged cargo ship in the strait because it “violated the US blockade against Iran.” “The ceasefire stopped and became obsolete after the United States failed to comply with the terms of the agreement, or the MoU,” Mostafa Khoshcheshm, a professor at Tehran University of Applied Sciences, told Al Jazeera. In particular, he added, Tehran believes that the United States has failed in its promises to release Iranian assets, lift sanctions, lift its naval blockade and have Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon. “Now, formally, on paper, it is said that the deadline is over,” Khoshcheshm said. What will happen next? Although the MoU is set to expire on Monday, what exactly that means depends on which side you ask. Iran’s Araghchi said on Friday that what was in Islamabad’s MoU was “the end of the war, not a ceasefire”, according to the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA). He added that since the United States violated the MoU and continued attacks, “there was no 60-day ceasefire that needed to be extended.” The recent reorganization of Iran’s national security apparatus suggests a tougher stance in future talks and less willingness to back down, particularly on control of Hormuz. Earlier this month, for example, former IRGC chief Mohsen Rezaee was named the new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, its top security body. The move aims to better synchronize military and civilian operations, analysts told Al Jazeera. Rezaee’s appointment, along with other recent leadership changes, “demonstrates that Iran believes it has the upper hand,” Khoshcheshm said. Any new talks would likely bring Iran to the table with more demands, he said, from ending the war in Gaza, to lifting sanctions and the blockade of Yemen, and even calling for the denuclearization of Israel. With few cards left to play for the US, Trump and his administration have intensified the rhetoric about cross-strait and economic warfare. Trump on Friday announced plans to formally claim the waterway for the U.S. “I will soon declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory,” he said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said Friday that the United States will pursue measures that have “never been seen before” in Iran. But there aren’t many levers left that Trump can pull if he wants to put more pressure on Tehran, Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Washington, DC-based Stimson Center, told Al Jazeera. depleted, its strategic oil reserves depleted and key military equipment, including aircraft carriers, have remained at sea months longer than planned, meaning the United States has few military options left to try. As for economic pressure, Tehran has shown that it can inflict its own economic damage by disrupting traffic passing through Hormuz, Slavin said. “Iran is playing hardball here, clearly furious with the Trump administration for failing to comply, in its view, with the MoU signed in June,” Slavin said. “They are making the international economy sweat and they are making Donald Trump sweat.” One way or another, Iran would likely be reimbursed for the war and gain great control over the Strait of Hormuz, Slavin said. This conflict, he said, “is resolved by agreement, probably after our midterm elections, when there will be less impact on the vote.” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Galibaf told reporters in Tehran on Saturday that the concessions Iran won in the MoU were “a source of pride and victory.” “I can say with complete conviction that we truly emerged victorious from this war, both militarily and politically,” he said.
