After the deadliest attack on Saudi Arabia in more than a decade, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faces increasing pressure to find a way to stop the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen from firing missiles and drones at his country. But the prince, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, has few options as he faces an asymmetric conflict with an adversary that has grown stronger since he led a disastrous war against it a decade ago, analysts say. The Houthis have carried out three fatal attacks on an international airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, over the past week. They included a strike at a passenger terminal on Saturday that killed at least 12 people and injured more than 300, many of them seriously, forcing officials to suspend operations at the airport. Saudi officials did not specify the nature of the attack, but a Gulf official and a U.S. official briefed on the attack said the Houthis attacked a terminal at the airport with a cruise missile. The strikes, which continued Sunday according to Saudi civil aviation authorities, have brought home the kingdom’s distant war in Yemen, stripping Saudi Arabian civilians of the sense of security they had largely maintained over years from a Saudi-led bombing campaign in neighboring Yemen. The Houthis say their attacks are retaliation. They have touched the heart of Prince Mohammed’s ambitions to transform Saudi Arabia from an island, oil-dependent nation into a global hub for business and tourism. There is no easy path forward for the crown prince. Reaching a political resolution with the Houthis has become more difficult as their demands have increased, and an attempt to defeat the group militarily is unlikely to succeed, analysts say. The militia has little to lose and has become increasingly hardened after repeated clashes with more powerful enemies. Saudi Arabia is receiving significant military support from the United States to fight the Houthis, including targeting assistance and in-flight refueling. President Trump said he would “make a decision” about intervening more directly in the conflict after Saturday’s attack. However, Trump carried out a bombing campaign against the Houthis last year and declared a quick victory after the United States burned through weapons and ammunition at a rate of around $1 billion in the first month alone. “The only realistic solution for the Saudis is an end to the Iranian-American war, in which the United States gets the Iranians to commit the Houthis to ending hostilities as part of the overall agreement,” said F. Gregory Gause, a Saudi specialist at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based research group. “Unfortunately for the Saudis, it is unclear to what extent President Trump is listening to them in this regard.” The Saudi government will likely try to weaken the group before negotiating a deal to end the conflict, said Yasmine Farouk, director of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project at International Crisis Group, a research firm. From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, it is too early to engage in talks while the Houthis still “retain the ability to launch” such attacks, Ms. Farouk said. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree has issued repeated warnings to airlines and travelers against using Saudi airports, declaring them a “theater of operations for our forces.” The airport attacks came ahead of several major political and business events in Saudi Arabia, including Prince Mohammed’s iconic annual investment summit, during which world leaders, billionaires and executives often flock to Riyadh. It’s unclear whether high-profile guests will feel safe enough to attend now. “The problem for the Saudis is that they experience more damage from Houthi attacks on their infrastructure than the other way around,” Gause said. “An attack on Riyadh airport could lead someone thinking about investing in the country to reconsider.” Instead, much of Sana’a, the Yemeni capital, controlled by the Houthis, has already been destroyed. Saturday’s attack was the deadliest in Saudi Arabia since a suicide bombing at a mosque in 2015, and the deadliest attack in any Arab Gulf country since the start of the US-Israel war against Iran in February. The Houthis came to power in 2014 when they took over Sana’a, defeating Yemen’s internationally recognized government. Shortly afterward, Prince Mohammed, in one of his first acts as Saudi Arabia’s 29-year-old defense minister, pledged to restore the Yemeni government by declaring war on the Houthis, at the time a ragtag group of rebels. Since then, the prince has consolidated his power within Saudi Arabia and beyond. However, the Houthis have also become stronger and more self-sufficient, posing one of the toughest challenges to their plans. The militia, which rules its impoverished territory with an iron fist, appears to be calculating that it can inflict more pain on Saudi Arabia than the kingdom can inflict on it, analysts say. The Saudi-led bombing campaign a decade ago precipitated one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises and contributed to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in Yemen from violence, famine and disease. Human rights groups said the campaign disproportionately targeted civilians. In one of the most notorious attacks, which drew international condemnation, a Saudi fighter jet bombed a school bus in 2018, killing 44 children and 10 adults. However, the Houthis survived, consolidating their power over northern Yemen. A truce in 2022 brought fragile peace to the country, until the United States and Israel attacked Iran more than seven months ago, sparking a regional war. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis began to escalate in July. when an airstrike hit the Sanaa international airport. The militia accused Saudi Arabia of launching the attack. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government claimed responsibility and said it had been acting to prevent the landing of an unauthorized Iranian plane. Analysts, however, say it is unlikely that the Yemeni government, which relies heavily on Saudi Arabia for financial and military support, acted on its own. After that attack, the Houthis, who have long bristled at restrictions on their airspace imposed by Saudi Arabia, announced that they intended to pursue a policy of “blockade after blockade.” They declared an embargo on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, which has become a major alternative route for Saudi oil exports after the Iran war disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen’s civil war has reignited, with fierce clashes between the Houthis and forces backed by Saudi Arabia and allied with the Yemeni government. That culminated last week, when the Yemeni government announced a new offensive against the Houthis, vowing to expel them from territory they had seized over the past 12 years. Saudi Arabia announced a new bombing campaign to support the government. Despite the escalating conflict, Saudi officials have tried to maintain a sense of normality. Authorities kept Riyadh airport open after two deadly attacks, closing it only after Saturday’s mass casualty event. “The Saudis have been claiming that they are the great kingdom and that heterogeneous militias cannot threaten their security,” said Abdulghani Al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sana’a Center, a Yemeni research organization. “They still maintain the façade even though it has been completely destroyed.” On Sunday, as foreign diplomats in Riyadh received warnings about a possible missile bound for the capital, advising them to shelter in place, a meeting of energy ministers in the city went ahead as planned. The only announcement from organizers asked attendees to take their seats as they awaited the arrival of Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi energy minister. “It is sad not to have all our friends, but it is understandable that they have their own precautionary measures that did not allow them to be with us,” Prince Abdulaziz told the crowd. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a Washington-based research group, said it arrived “safe and sound” on Saturday. But about 30 minutes after leaving Riyadh airport, he was hit. Still, Mr. McNally said he was not surprised that the Saudi government was moving ahead with events. “Saudi Arabia has invested a lot in this, literally and figuratively, and they are determined to move forward,” he said. Kate Kelly and Jonathan Swan contributed reporting from Washington.
