While oil and gas prices have fallen following the Democrats’ midterm victory, assuming they would seek to end the conflict with Iran, experts say energy costs are unlikely to return to pre-war levels given the magnitude of the disruptions to global oil flows caused by the conflict. That has left consumers in a precarious position, according to financial experts. Even households that manage to keep up with daily expenses can find themselves in credit card debt due to a single unexpected bill. “Credit card debt typically has practical causes: Medical bills, car repairs, home repairs, and everyday essentials like gas and groceries are among the most common stories we hear from customers,” Rossman said. “Often the story goes something like this: ‘I was doing well until X happened.’ That is, until the surprise medical bill came. Or the roof leaked. Or the car broke down. That starts a cycle of debt that’s hard to shake.” If there is a positive side, it is in the labor market, which remains in a low retention pattern, although with low hiring. Many economists believe that as long as there is widespread employment with incomes that provide a financial cushion, consumer spending is unlikely to fall off a cliff. More recently, employment growth has shown some signs of stabilizing. Over the past three months, job growth has averaged 137,000, compared with an average loss of 45,000 over the same period in 2025. “The main support for consumer spending is employment,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at financial group Nationwide. With gas prices coming back down, consumers may start to see more daylight, he said. FOR SUBSCRIBERS However, wage growth remains stagnant, suggesting that employers are not yet raising the price for job seekers. Meanwhile, the number of Americans who have been out of work for six months or more continues to rise, reaching around 2 million as of the end of October. That group now represents 27.6% of all unemployed workers, the highest share since December 2021, a sign of how difficult it can be to find a job. Commentary on other recent earnings calls from consumer-facing companies shows a fractured consumer landscape, with some sectors proving resilient and others on shakier ground. Reynolds Consumer Products, maker of Reynolds Wrap and Hefty, echoed this sentiment. “Household budgets remain under pressure, and we continue to see that reflected in purchasing behavior across all of our categories,” said CEO Scott Huckins, noting that shoppers are more aggressively seeking promotions and discounts or higher value packages.
