So much for starting October the right way. My picks sucked last week. I was good early on, going 9-7, but late-game shenanigans cost me a chance to have a decent week against the spread. I went 4-11-1 ATS last week, as I got a lot of backdoor coverages. My all-time record for the season is 38-26-0 and my ATS record is a dismal 25-37-2. How can I be so bad? There’s no time to sulk. It’s time to turn it around and this week I think I have a chance to get closer to .500 for the season. Then we can develop things from there. Come on. All lines through DraftKings; All times ETTampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) Thursday, 8:15 pm on Amazon Prime The Bucs are 0-4 and playing a rookie quarterback in Jalon Daniels. He will make his first start as a visitor. On a Thursday night? That’s hard. The Cowboys are coming off a big win in Houston and the offense was dynamic. Dak Prescott continues in this one. Pick: Cowboys 34, Bucs 14 Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) London Sunday at 9:30am on NFL Network (Streaming: Fubo – try it for free) The Eagles are really banged up and are coming off a tough loss to the Rams. Then right tackle Lane Johnson retired on Tuesday. They have a lot of key players out, which has to help the Jaguars. The Jaguars are second in scoring defense and have stopped the streak all year. They will limit the Eagles’ offense in this one. The Jaguars are 4-1. Pick: Jaguars 28, Eagles 16 Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (+3) Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Streaming: Fubo – try it for free) These two don’t like each other. The Bears have been excellent running the ball, but this could be the game in which they appear to be playing without Caleb Williams. Expect Jordan Love to have a big day throwing it to the other side, finally. The Packers win surprisingly. Pick: Packers 27, Bears 24 Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+7) Both teams are 0-4, which is surprising when it comes to the Texans. The Titans have played a lot of close games, and they will do so again here. But CJ Stroud will make the plays late to win this one. Pick: Texans 23, Titans 17 Cincinnati Bengals (-7) at Miami Dolphins Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo – free trial) The Bengals are suffering at receiver with Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase suffering injuries last week against the Jaguars. But there is a chance they can play. Even if they don’t, the Bengals will move the ball. Miami plays hard, but is undermanned. Pick: Bengals 23, Dolphins 13 Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-3.5) This is a long trip for the Raiders, who are coming off a tough divisional loss. The Patriots seemed to put things right against the Bills, which meant Drake Maye came to life. Let’s hope that continues here as the Patriots get to 3-2. Pick: Patriots 28, Raiders 24 Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo – free trial) The Saints looked terrible in their loss to the Falcons on Monday night and now face an undefeated Vikings team. That Minnesota defense is special. The Saints are really banged up on defense. Maybe Kyler Murray can do it against him. I think so. Pick: Vikings 24, Saints 17 Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5) The Browns are 3-1 and have won three games in a row, while the Jets have lost three in a row. But after two trips they are back home. That matters. Look for a better performance here from their offense as they defeated the Browns. Pick: Jets 20, Browns 16 Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) The Colts have won two straight while facing the Steelers on the road after beating the Commanders in London last week. This is a tough trade as long as the Steelers get extra days off. That matters. The Steelers will get back on track with a victory led by Aaron Rodgers. Pick: Steelers 33, Colts 23 New York Giants (+3) at Washington Commanders Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo, try it for free) There is a chance Jayden Daniels plays for the Commanders. That’s the good news. But he will be wearing an elbow brace. How much will it restrict you? The Giants are 3-1, but this is a great test on the road. I think they will be up to the task. Give me Jameis Winston playing well as the Giants get to 4-1. Pick: Giants 26, Commanders 24 Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) The Broncos are playing back-to-back road games after losing in San Francisco last week. The Chargers haven’t won. They will do it here. Despair will be in play for the Chargers. The Broncos have offensive problems right now that will show up. Look for Los Angeles to calm the critics for a week. Pick: Chargers 23, Broncos 17 Detroit Lions (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals Sunday, 4:25 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo – try it for free) The Lions are playing on the road after a loss Sunday night. They can’t stop anyone on defense. But the Cardinals also have some defensive problems. Expect the Lions to beat Arizona in a shootout as Jared Goff puts up big numbers. Pick: Lions 40, Cardinals 31 San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) Sunday, 4:25 pm on Fox (Streaming: Fubo – try it for free) This is a huge division game that will be a physical war, as it always is between these two. The 49ers are undefeated, but this is a tough road test. The Seahawks are the healthier team, but the 49ers have played better. The 49ers have played well in Seattle, but I think Seattle’s defense will come out on top to win. Pick: Seahawks 28, 49ers 21 Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons Sunday, 8:20 pm on NBC (Stream: Fubo – try it for free) This could be a Ravens team without Lamar Jackson after suffering an ankle injury last week. If he can’t go, Tyler Huntley will start. That means this will be a Derrick Henry game. The Falcons impressed on Monday night, defeating the Saints, but this is a short week and a better opponent. The Ravens will bounce back if Jackson doesn’t play and will be excited if he does. Pick: Ravens 24, Falcons 17 Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) Monday, 8:15 pm on ESPN (Streaming: Fubo – try it for free) This is one of the best games of the week. The Bills are coming off a tough loss to the Patriots, while the Rams bounced back to beat the Eagles. Look for plenty of points in this one, as Josh Allen and Matt Stafford have big games. In the end, the Rams will make the late plays to win it. Pick: Rams 34, Bills 33
