The Phillies announced that left-hander Jesús Luzardo has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 12, with inflammation in his left shoulder. Left-hander Kyle Backhus has been retired as the corresponding move. Before the official announcement, manager Don Mattingly passed the information to reporters, including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Luzardo was ruled out of his most recent start due to some tightness in his throwing shoulder. An MRI revealed no structural damage. The Phils initially expected him to feel better after a few days of rest, but he hasn’t progressed as much as expected, so he’s headed to the IL. According to Gelb, the Phillies hope Luzardo can appear in the playoffs, but his schedule is quite uncertain at this point. The lefty has had a fantastic season, posting a 2.87 ERA in 29 starts. His 30.4% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate, and 48.3% ground ball rate are solid numbers. FanGraphs has credited him with 5.5 wins above replacement this year, which puts him fourth in the National League behind Jacob Misiorowski, Cristopher Sánchez and Chris Sale. Losing a pitcher of that caliber would be tough at any time but it’s especially notable at this stretch of the schedule. The Phillies are currently in a tight race for the National League wild card. The Cubs are in first place, a half-game ahead of the Phillies. The Padres are in third place, just one game behind Philadelphia. The Diamondbacks are 2.5 games behind San Diego. That’s still a healthy position for the Phillies. Playoff odds on FanGraphs give them a 95.6% chance of getting in. PECOTA’s Baseball Prospectus rankings are even more optimistic, giving the Phillies a 98.4% chance. But losing Luzardo doesn’t help. And even if playoff berth is all but guaranteed, there are still other things at stake. Catching the Cubs for the top wild card spot would mean home-field advantage in the first round, for example. Falling to sixth place could lead to facing the Dodgers in the second round. Then, of course, there is the question of the club’s playoff rotation. Ideally, the club’s top three in a playoff series would be Sanchez, Luzardo and Wheeler in some order. If Luzardo needs to miss some time, then Andrew Painter and/or Aaron Nola will rise in importance. Yesterday, Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote that the club had not yet decided who would be the fourth starter in the playoffs. One of those two may need to move up to No. 3. Neither Nola nor Painter are having a good season overall. The veteran Nola has a 4.69 ERA in his 30 starts. His strikeout and walk numbers are still decent. The effectiveness is mainly due to problems with home runs. Some metrics, like SIERA, expect home run numbers to even out over time. This year’s Nola 3.94 SIERA is a good example of this. However, this is Nola’s fourth consecutive season with a home run per fly ball ratio of 15.6% or higher. The league average is 11.6% this year, for reference. As that trend continues, it becomes harder to expect him to regress in that department. His SIERA has been in the 3.00s all that time, but his actual ERA has mostly been above that, including a 6.01 ERA last year. At least he has some momentum on his side. He had a 5.75 ERA in the first half but has a 3.08 ERA since the All-Star break. However, his speed stats have been mostly the same, aside from better sequencing luck. Before the pause, its rate of 67.9% was a few points below this year’s average of 72.3%. But Nola has been at 96.2% lately. Painter has also improved lately, but with a little more to back it up. Overall, he has a 5.54 ERA in his rookie season. He posted a 7.06 ERA in his first 14 appearances. He struck out just 17.7% of opponents and his 38.9% ground ball rate was also a few steps below par. He was sent back to Triple-A in June. He was recalled in late July and has since posted a 3.58 ERA in nine starts, with an improved 22.6% strikeout rate and 46% ground ball rate. Meanwhile, the focus will be on securing a playoff spot with Wheeler, Sanchez, Painter and Nola in four rotation spots. According to Gelb, the Phillies could throw a bullpen game soon, possibly on Friday. Assuming the Phillies make the postseason, they’ll have to make some decisions about who gets the ball, whether Luzardo is back in the mix or not. Photo courtesy of Eric Hartline, Imagn Images
