I have no explanation for the last two weeks. But I’ll use an unexpected streak of success to give a warning to anyone who wakes up one day in the middle of a good streak. In Week 8, I went 13-1 in the straight picks exercise only. (No more picks against the spread, for reasons I explained above.) By Week 9, I finished 14-1. That’s 27-2 in two weeks. (Which translates to 87-48-1 for the year, which doesn’t sound as good as “27-2”). Now, a warning, specifically for anyone who has bet or is going to bet on sports. The worst thing you can do is get lucky. Because you will think that you have suddenly become good. Then, you’ll let it run until your luck runs out. That’s when it becomes dangerous. Because you’ll fool yourself into thinking it’s just a temporary setback, that your secret formula for picking winners is still viable, and that you’ll chase your losses. You’ll keep digging that hole, confident that it’s only a matter of time before your sudden genius returns. Over time, you will find yourself in an unsustainable financial situation. That’s what happens to many players. They don’t start losing and keep losing. They earn enough to think they know more than them, when the reality is that no one knows anything. And then the wheels come off. And then they become desperate to get the wheels moving again. Case in point: Last week, someone who has been a part of the NFL universe for more than 30 years expressed shock that the Cowboys were favored by just 4.5 points against the Colts. With the Colts in disarray due to multiple trades and set to make even more trades, the Cowboys would win easily. It was, the person said, “a sure thing.” Final score? Cowboys 27, Colts 23. Nothing is certain in the game. Well, there is one. If you ever allow yourself to believe that you are smarter than the house and don’t get out of there in time, you are sure to eventually declare bankruptcy. Giants Commanders (Thursday Night) Can Dan Quinn and company come up with another way to screw things up at a key moment? Giants 23, Commanders 17. Patriots vs. Lions (Germany) It’s time for desperation for New England, like this It was when they found a way to beat the Bills. Patriots 23, Lions 20. Chiefs at Falcons The Falcons are capable of winning every game. It is simply impossible to know when that version of the team will appear. Chiefs 27, Falcons 17. Texans at Browns Time is running out for Houston. And the Browns appear to be in the early stages of a slide. Texans 20, Browns 16. Vikings at Packers One of the craziest weeks in Vikings history ends on a high note, thanks to the Packers’ failure to run the ball effectively. Vikings 24, Packers 20. Dolphins at Colts With the uncertainty of the trade deadline, the Colts can get back to focusing on trying to win football games. Colts 17. Dolphins 7. Panthers at Saints If the Saints can play a full 60 minutes together, they could be very dangerous. Saints 27, Panthers 20. Bills at Jets The Bills have a tough six-game stretch ahead of them; They know not to be victims of a cheating game. Bills 30, Jets 17. Jaguars at Titans Liam Coen and Robert Saleh reunite. One has an elite squad. Not one. Jaguars 24, Titans 13. Rams at Cardinals The Cardinals still don’t know how to win a home game. Rams 17, Cardinals 13. Seahawks at Raiders It will take a little time to get Fernando Mendoza up to speed. Seahawks 16, Raiders 9.49ers at Cowboys If it wasn’t clear that the Cowboys are far from being elite, it will be 49ers, 31, Cowboys 20. Steelers at Bengals. Joe Burrow’s MVP case is further strengthened with a primetime victory. Bengals 27, Steelers 23. Chargers at Ravens Jacoby Brissett’s job is simple. Win some winnable games to keep the team relevant when Lamar Jackson returns. Ravens 14, Chargers 6.
