I want to take you all back to January 2025. The Arizona State Sun Devils just completed an improbable run to the College Football Playoffs, just two years after the disastrous Herm Edwards era. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you register or place a bet, FOX News may receive compensation. This content was created by a team working independently of the FOX newsroom. Head coach Kenny Dillingham, in just his second year on the job, had guided the program through NCAA sanctions and three-win seasons to a Big 12 championship and had his team on the verge of a playoff victory over Texas thanks to the contributions of intriguing players like Cam Skattebo, Jordyn Tyson and Sam Leavitt. EXCEED EXPECTATIONS THIS COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON? ARLINGTON, TX – NOVEMBER 20: Arizona State Sun Devils QB Sam Leavitt celebrates with his parents winning the Big XII Conference Championship between the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Iowa State Cyclones on December 6, 2024 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. (Photo by John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Just two years later, the Sun Devils are now 2-2 with an anemic offense, fresh off a beatdown at the hands of Baylor, a team currently employing a coach who was in a ridiculous state just a month earlier. Less than a year after Arizona State’s magical CFP emergence, two more coaches were making names for themselves at schools on opposite ends of the country. Jedd Fisch inherited a Washington program in 2024 that had just competed for a national championship the season before he arrived, but had to replace nearly 100% of the team’s production from the previous year. After a 6-7 campaign that year that showed promise, Fisch followed up with a nine-win season that included a bowl victory over Boise State and featured a quarterback named Demond Williams who was the toast of college football. Washington Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch during the game against the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. The game took place on November 22, 2025. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images) RUMORS OF LINCOLN RILEY’S HOT SEAT GET STRONGER AFTER ‘FIRE LINCOLN’ CHANTS DURING USC-WASHINGTON Meanwhile, more than 2,600 miles to the southeast, Brent Key was turning Georgia Tech into a legitimate threat in the ACC with a super innovative offense and a Heisman hope by the name of Haynes King at quarterback. The Yellow Jackets rose to number seven in the AP Poll, their highest mark in nearly two decades, and even finished the season ranked for the first time since 2014. Georgia Tech head football coach Brent Key walks onto the field during a game between the Yellow Jackets and Syracuse Orange at Bobby Dodd Stadium on October 25, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Andrew J. Clark/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images) Ten months later, both Washington and Georgia Tech, along with the aforementioned Sun Devils, look like shells of their former selves just a season ago. It happens. These schools are not designed to compete for more than one or two seasons in a row without strong fluctuations from year to year. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COACHES WHO “CAN’T” WIN A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP AND COACHES WHO “HAVEN’T” While programs like Ohio State, Texas, Oregon and Georgia have the infrastructure, funding and talent pools to be consistently excellent year after year, Washington State, Georgia Techs and Arizona around the world need to take advantage of the very thin windows and go “all in” every time they recognize that those windows get closer. That goes for their coaches, too. There was a time when Dillingham, Fisch and Key were tied to every big job in college football after their respective “window years.” Georgia Tech head football coach Brent Key (center) celebrates surrounded by fans after an NCAA college football game against Clemson. The game was in Atlanta, Georgia, on Sept. 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Colin Hubbard) Dillingham was talked about as Mike Norvell’s possible replacement at Florida State following his dismal 2024 season, and the 36-year-old head coach was even talked about for the Michigan job shortly after Sherrone Moore was fired. SEASON: SHANE BEAMER OR MIKE NORVELL? Speaking of Maize and Blue, Fisch was also thought to be the leader in the clubhouse to accept the job in Ann Arbor, and both he and Key were widely considered candidates for the Florida vacancy, with Fisch receiving additional attention given his alumni status in Gainesville. These three coaches were some of the most popular names in the last two recruiting cycles and, for whatever reason, they decided to stay at their respective there’s no shame in that, and for Dillingham and Key, it could also be due to the fact that they’re coaching at their alma maters. But the question remains: Did they miss the opportunity to parlay their successful seasons into jobs on bigger, more established shows? If Washington, Arizona State and Georgia Tech each finish with six or seven losses this season, their respective coaches probably won’t take many calls when high-level jobs open up in November. although Dillingham has specifically called out Arizona State’s fan base and support clubs for a lack of funding in the past, and based on conversations I’ve had with people close to the Gators football program about the job in Florida, it’s something Fisch would easily accept under the right circumstances. Time will tell for these three coaches, as well as others who are making a name for themselves at “mid-level” Power 4 programs. PRETENDERS: TEXAS SURVIVES, MICHIGAN’S KARMA AND THE COACHES ARE SWEATING Maybe one of these three will win 10 or 11 games in 2027 and get a top-level job that makes me look like a fool. It worked for Matt Campbell, who had multiple historic seasons at Iowa State in 2020 and 2024 only to turn down other offers. It was only after Penn State came calling a year later that Campbell finally decided to leave the comfort of Ames. Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell looks on from the field during Penn State’s blue-white spring game at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania, on April 25, 2026. (Matthew O’Haren/Imagn Images) Patience is a virtue, as is loyalty, but when it comes to being a college football coach, sometimes those things can work against you. You’re only as good as your last season, and many of these Athletic director hires have a serious case of recency bias when it comes to selecting their next football coach. I’ll be interested to see where Kenny Dillingham, Brent Key and Jedd Fisch are in a year. Will they settle into cushy new jobs in Tallahassee, Los Angeles and Norman? Or will they be the latest victims of the “what have you done for me lately” league that is Power 4 college football? NEWS APPThere’s only one way to find out. Austin Perry is a writer for OutKick.
