Voters in two German states go to the polls with the political future of embattled Chancellor Friedrich Merz hanging in the balance and an emboldened far-right aiming for bigger gains. Two weeks after a seismic election in Saxony-Anhalt in which the anti-immigration and pro-Kremlin Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) scored its highest result in a regional poll, the nativist party is again expected to drain support from Merz’s conservative party. Christian Democratic Union (CDU). How brutal the result is could affect Merz’s ability to remain leader after just 16 months in power, possibly setting the wheels in motion for his replacement or even early elections, which is currently considered unlikely but not ruled out. A campaign poster for AfD candidates Kristin Brinker and Julian Adrat in Berlin. Photograph: Liesa Johannssen/Reuters Around 2.5 million people have the right to vote in the capital, Berlin, and almost 1.3 million in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, on the Baltic coast. Polling stations open at 8 a.m. local time on Sunday and will close at 6 p.m., when Merz and his allies will watch the exit polls in suspense. The hapless chancellor has resisted calls to resign and vowed to fight for a flagship package of economic and social welfare changes that he says are crucial for Germany’s future. “We, as a government, were elected for four years, I was elected for four years,” he told an industry group. “And I want to use these four years to get the country out of this difficult period.” Merz, whose personal approval ratings have plummeted to 10%, canceled a plan to speak at the U.N. general assembly in New York because “his presence is required in Berlin” after the election, a government official said. His credibility has been tarnished by broken campaign promises to return growth to Europe’s largest economy and reduce the AfD, the largest opposition party in parliament and number one in opinion polls. size.Protesters attend an anti-AfD demonstration in Berlin earlier this week. Photograph: Liesa Johannssen/ReutersThe AfD did not achieve an absolute majority in former communist Saxony-Anhalt, which would have allowed it to govern alone. It is looking for defectors from other parties to become the first far-right force to govern a German state since the Nazi period. However, polls indicate that the AfD will fall short of that prospect in Sunday’s two elections, even with its palpable sense of momentum. In Berlin, which is one of Germany’s 16 federal states, the ruling CDU is vying for first place against the far-left Die Linke, which has called for the expropriation of corporate landlords to fight rising housing costs. Around 85% of Berlin households rent their homes and advertised rentals have almost doubled since 2014, when the city was still described as “poor but sexy” by its then mayor, Klaus Wowereit. playing tennis while much of the German capital was hit by a blackout caused by a fire last winter. Stefan Evers, Berlin’s top finance official, replaced him as a candidate but failed to improve the party’s poll results. Campaign posters for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election in Schwerin, Germany. Photograph: Annegret Hilse/Reuters In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the situation looks even more complicated for Merz, whose weakness regional leaders have blamed on his poor performance. The AfD and the Social Democrats are locked in a very tight race, while the CDU risks achieving its first single-digit result in 75 years. If he exits parliament entirely by falling below the 5% threshold for representation, it would be unprecedented in the post-war period and mark a painful setback for Merz’s quest to remain in office. “But the risk of the CDU rebelling against him and replacing the unpopular chancellor appears to have increased from 20% 10 days ago to about 35% now, in my opinion,” he said in a research note. Although some economic indicators have improved under Merz, rising living costs and deindustrialization in core sectors such as auto manufacturing in the face of Chinese competition have taken a heavy toll. Meanwhile, a significant reduction in new arrivals to the border has failed to win back AfD voters, who are responding to the party’s strong focus on economic anxiety, fears around crime and resistance to Merz’s unconditional support for Ukraine. he built his victory in Saxony-Anhalt largely by mobilizing non-voters. Opponents hope the specter of a far-right giant across Germany will get voters to the polls to support the main democratic parties, after tens of thousands joined street protests against the AfD following the defeat in Saxony-Anhalt.
