The midterm elections in the United States are just around the corner: on Tuesday, November 3, American voters will elect their representatives in the US Congress. President Donald Trump’s right-wing conservative Republican Party currently has a majority in both chambers. But in other parts of the world the election results are already available. The majority of voters in both Serbia and Brazil voted for left-wing parties. Those results won’t influence the midterm elections in the United States, but the victories of the Student List in Serbia and the current president, Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, in Brazil are still bad news for Trump. In Serbia, it has lost an important European ally: the outgoing president, Aleksandar Vucic. And in Brazil, the Trump camp hoped Flavio Bolsonaro would triumph. Former president and Trump ally Aleksandar Vucic was defeated in Serbia’s parliamentary election on October 25 Image: Darko Vojinovic/AP Photo/picture Alliance “Trump was a strong supporter of both Jair Bolsonaro, the Trump-like figure who served as president before Lula defeated him in 2022, and his son Flavio,” says Lawrence J. Haas, a senior researcher at the US Department of Foreign Affairs. policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, who was communications director for Al Gore, Bill Clinton’s vice president, in the 1990s. “Trump was not happy with the defeat of any of the Bolsonaros,” he continues, “and he has no sympathy for Lula. So, relations will remain cold at best.” Trump declared that the Brazilian elections appeared “rigged” Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation in Brazil for alleged corruption and money laundering. After losing the election, he fled the country for Florida. The US State Department granted him and his family entry visas despite the pending legal action. Bolsonaro has refused to admit defeat. Instead, he claims there were irregularities in the vote. This is very reminiscent of Trump, who continues to claim – falsely – that Joe Biden and the Democratic Party “stole” the US election in 2020. Trump’s comments about Bolsonaro’s defeat sounded very familiar. “Frankly, it looked like another rigged election,” the US president said Monday. “Elections have to be indisputable, and that seemed very wrong to me.” How secure are the US midterm elections? To view this video, please enable JavaScript and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video. Good relations with Putin ally Vucic Aleksandar Vucic had ruled Serbia as president with an iron fist since 2017. He resigned just before this election to run for prime minister, a position he previously held from 2014 to 2017. Vucic has commented in the past that he and President Trump are like-minded people. Trump’s eldest son, Donald Jr., visited Vucic in Belgrade shortly before the November 2024 US presidential election, and again a few months later. The US Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), closely associated with Trump’s MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) movement, recently announced that it would host a meeting in Belgrade in November, at which Vucic would be the keynote speaker. It is unclear whether this is still the case. Another thing Vucic and Trump have in common is that Serbia’s soon-to-be-former president has a much more positive attitude toward Russian President Vladimir Putin than most other European heads of state. Vucic did not join EU countries in imposing sanctions on Russia after it launched its war of aggression against Ukraine. Belgrade still buys Russian raw materials and Serbian state media under Vucic presented a more positive image of Russia than the EU. Trump also appears increasingly leaning toward Moscow. His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, recently described Putin as a “humanitarian,” while, in an interview, Trump himself openly admitted that he got along better with Putin than with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The end of the Vucic government now means that Trump has lost one of his few like-minded allies in Europe. Is Trump trying to end the war in Ukraine or helping Putin win it? To view this video, please enable JavaScript and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Israel: Result Still Unclear There is still a possibility of an outcome in the Israeli election that may be to Trump’s liking. With more than 96% of the votes counted, the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in the lead. However, Trump ally Netanyahu has lost his majority and coalition negotiations will be very difficult. Trump and Netanyahu have been close allies since long before February of this year, when they joined forces to launch a war against Iran. In 2018, during his first term, Trump moved the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This was controversial, because both Israel and the Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital. Netanyahu’s camp welcomed the decision. Today, the United States remains by far Israel’s most important partner, while Israel is an important regional ally for the United States. It is unclear what his relationship would be like under a different Israeli government. If Netanyahu remains in power, little or nothing will change. The Israeli right-wing leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighted his closeness to Trump in his election campaign Image: Oded Balilty/AP Photo/picture Alliance There are no bright prospects for Trump in the midterm elections With Vucic’s defeat, Trump has lost a loyal ally. And Lula’s victory means, for him, that an unpleasant president remains in power. None of this is good for Trump, but foreign policy analyst Haas said it won’t influence his country’s important midterm elections. “Americans will vote […] But this doesn’t bode well for Trump either. “Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president heading into a midterm election since Harry Truman in 1946,” Haas explained. “Americans are very concerned about affordability issues, [and] They strongly oppose the war between the United States and Iran.” Benjamín Álvarez Gruber in Miami contributed to this report, which was originally written in German.
