Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – The capture of the Tigray regional capital, Mekelle, by Ethiopian federal forces and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters has rekindled painful memories of the 2020-22 Tigray war, with residents fearing a return to protracted violence, displacement and economic hardship. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) confirmed on Saturday that it had withdrawn from Mekelle, saying its regional administration would temporarily operate from another location. Government forces and allied fighters entered the city on Saturday, and a pro-government militia source, an aid worker and a Mekelle resident confirmed to the Reuters news agency on Sunday that they were in control of the city. The development comes less than four years after the Ethiopian government and the TPLF signed the Pretoria agreement that ended two years of devastating fighting. Berihu, a 32-year-old Bajaj driver in Shire, northwest Tigray, said the latest fighting had been particularly difficult. “I feel very heartbroken to know that Tigray has returned to a full-scale war,” he said in a telephone interview with Al Jazeera. “We’ve already seen what the last war did to our people, and now it seems like we’re going through it all again.” The 2020-22 war is estimated to have killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions and caused extensive damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. The African Union-facilitated deal, signed in Pretoria in November 2022, ended large-scale fighting, but key issues including the status of disputed territories, the return of displaced people and the disarmament of Tigray forces remained unresolved. In July, the TPLF said the Pretoria agreement had effectively collapsed, accusing the federal government of failing to implement key provisions. The federal government rejected that characterization and said it remained committed to the peace process, while accusing the TPLF of undermining the agreement. The political dispute was accompanied by rising military tensions, including reports of sporadic clashes and drone attacks in parts of Tigray. The two sides also traded accusations over troop movements and preparations for new fighting. The capture of Mekelle marks a major development in the renewed conflict, placing the city once again at the center of the fighting. Fear spreads beyond Tigray. In Addis Ababa, the events have also alarmed residents who remember the consequences of the previous war. Abel, a 30-year-old shopkeeper, said the fighting had felt distant until explosions were heard in the capital. “I woke up and heard that my city had been hit,” he said. “You hear about fighting in Tigray and you feel very far away. But when you hear about explosions in Addis Ababa, you start to wonder what will happen next.” Diplomatic sources said explosions were heard in several parts of the capital, including near the Ethiopian army headquarters. Reuters reported separately that a source linked to an opposition alliance claimed the group had carried out drone attacks in Addis Ababa, including against military facilities. The claim could not be independently verified. For Abel, the economic consequences are as worrying as the fighting itself. “If the war becomes bigger, ordinary people will suffer,” he said. Bisrat, a university student in Addis Ababa, said the overnight explosions had reinforced his fear that Ethiopia could be entering a much broader conflict. “If Ethiopia enters a full-scale war, ordinary people will suffer,” he said. “I fear seeing another Sudan.” Sudan has been embroiled in war since April 2023, when fighting broke out between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, displacing millions and creating a major humanitarian crisis. The current fighting also involves a broader set of actors than the Tigray war that ended in 2022. The TPLF is part of a broader opposition alliance that includes armed groups from various parts of the country. Eritrea has deteriorated markedly. Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea of interfering in Ethiopia’s internal affairs and supporting forces opposed to the federal government. Eritrea has rejected the accusations. On Thursday, Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, alleging that they had been involved in activities that posed a threat to Ethiopia’s national security. Eritrea subsequently announced that it was cutting diplomatic relations with Ethiopia. The diplomatic breakup has raised concerns that the new fighting could take on a broader regional dimension. trying to understand what comes next after the TPLF withdrawal. Goitom, 37, said there was a period of uncertainty after TPLF forces left the city, with what he described as a security vacuum allowing robberies in some areas, including government offices. “Friday night, we heard gunshots but we didn’t know what was happening,” he said. By Saturday, Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters had taken control of key locations, including the airport, according to Goitom. Reuters and The Associated Press news agency also reported that government-aligned forces had entered Mekelle following the TPLF withdrawal. “It feels like we’re back to square one,” he said. “We’ve already seen what war can do to this city and to our families. People are worried about what will happen next.” He said the decision was aimed at preventing further destruction in the city and indicated that his forces would continue the conflict from other positions. For the federal government, the capture of Mekelle represents a significant step toward restoring federal control over the region. Abraham Belay, former president of the Interim Administration of Tigray, said on Sunday that preparations were underway to establish a new interim administration in Tigray, with the aim of holding regional elections within months. “We are working to establish a new administrative structure that allows the people of Tigray to govern themselves,” Abraham said in an interview with Fana Broadcasting Corporate. He said new administrative structures would be organized from the kebele level upwards, with community participation, before the regional elections were held. The competing accounts leave the next phase of the conflict uncertain. The federal government says it is trying to restore its authority and establish a new regional administration, while the TPLF says its forces will continue fighting from elsewhere. Civilian fears come to the fore again For people who lived through the previous war, the return of fighting has once again brought fears of displacement, destruction and another prolonged humanitarian crisis. Berihu, the driver of the Bajaj, said he had seen villages bombed and civilians caught in fighting during the previous conflict, experiences that have shaped his fears about what might follow. “It’s painful to even think that civilians could bear the cost again,” he said. After years of displacement, loss and disruption, he said, many people in Tigray simply want the fighting to stop. “We have suffered enough,” Berihu said. “We just want peace. We don’t want to go through the same thing again.”
