Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi said in a televised interview on Sunday night, only three to four million barrels of oil per day (bpd) move through the route, dismissing the amount as “insignificant” compared to pre-war traffic. Fadavi said that for the first time, there were no US ships present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman or even the northern Indian Ocean and US warships are “100 percent vulnerable” to IRGC attacks. Data from Kpler showed that the region’s crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, rising to 19.5-22.5 million bpd. Around that time, Iran claimed to have attacked ships – including US Navy ships – near the Strait of Hormuz, saying the attacks had forced Washington to move its warships away from the Iranian coast. Before the US-Israel war against Iran began, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026. According to Kpler data, the overall tally for crude oil, petroleum products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days through September 30. On October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude oil exports was 18.5 million bpd. This includes transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. The number of liquefied natural gas shipments leaving the Strait of Hormuz also rose in September to its highest monthly level since February. The figures exclude any vessels that may have crossed the strait with their automatic identification system transponders turned off to avoid detection. The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden since October 2. On Sunday, Iran’s top negotiator and speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States agreed to Tehran’s seven-day plan to reopen the waterway.
