For the third time in five years, we will have the Braves against the Phillies in the National League playoffs. In 2022, the Phillies won the NLDS 3 games to 1. In 2023, the Phillies won the NLDS 3 games to 1. We don’t know what this year will look like, other than to say it won’t be 3 games to 1. The wild card, after all, is a best of three. Breaking it down, position by position… Our first problem comes right away, as we have some receivers with strong name value who simply haven’t performed well this season. Three-time All-Star JT Realmuto, considered the game’s best all-around catcher for a solid half-decade, hasn’t hit anything (OPS+ of 65), isn’t the Gold Glove defender he once was, and was on an 0-for-34 streak before an RBI on the final day. It’s not that former All-Star and Gold Glover Sean Murphy has been better, not with an OPS+ of 49 in a season practically lost to injuries. He’s a weak point on both sides, with the advantage over Atlanta clearly thanks to Drake Baldwin, although it’s not entirely clear how much time he’ll actually spend behind the plate instead of serving as a designated hitter. Here’s the first of several places where Luis Arráez’s ankle injury affects the entire Phillies lineup. It’s pretty easy on Atlanta’s side, because you know you’ll have Matt Olson, along with his 41 home runs and outstanding defense. (And, if we’re fair, a pretty decent second half, although we’ll leave that aside for now.) But for the Phillies, it was Arráez’s arrival that forced a defensive reconfiguration, pushing Alec Bohm to first base – which was just the moment his disappointing bat perked up, coincidentally or not – and Bryce Harper to the outfield. Bohm, it must be admitted, was much better in the second half. It’s still not Olson, on either side of the ball. Without Arraez, we think this will be Bryson Stott back at second base, and while name value might say this is a close race (Ozzie Albies, after all, is a four-time All-Star who just recorded his fifth 20-homer season), we really don’t think this one is close at all. This is because Stott has a considerable advantage on defense, and Albies, while capable of hitting a home run, simply hasn’t hit as much. A .294 OBP won’t do it, and a .195/.255/.325 line in the second half is one of the weakest in baseball. Stott was having something of a breakout year offensively before a slump in September, like the rest of the Phillies, set his overall line back. Trea Turner hasn’t been good. His defense, after a surprising step forward in 2025, has been a major problem in 2026, and the bat has dropped 137 points in OPS. It has been, by all accounts, his weakest season as a full-time major leaguer. And yet: the Braves can start Ha-Seong Kim, who has an OPS+ of literally two. It is one of the weakest hitting seasons in history. If they don’t, it would probably be Mauricio Dubón, who had some big hits early in the year, but generally didn’t hit much after that, and may end up seeing time in left field anyway. The Braves rank 28th in shortstop WAR this year. The Phillies are 25th. That’s not why the Phillies get the advantage here. But it does show how porous both points are. What happened to Austin Riley? Between 2021 and 2023, he looked like the next big thing, hitting 108 home runs with a 135 OPS+ and essentially ranking as the best third baseman in baseball. The last two seasons were worse, and this one has been a complete disaster, hitting .220/.291/.366, leading to just an 80 OPS+. Arráez’s status will help determine whether Bohm or Edmundo Sosa take Philly’s hot corner, and while it hasn’t really been a great year for any of these three, Bohm’s late-season offensive rebound tips the balance slightly toward the Phillies. Finally, an easy one. Philadelphia rookie Justin Crawford’s game is built around speed, but a general inability to get on base meant he stole just 17 bases, thanks to an OPS+ of 79. Atlanta’s Michael Harris II has been one of the best defensive center fielders in the game for years, and he also brought the bat this year, hitting 26 home runs with an OPS+ of 120. Big advantage on offense and big advantage on defense? Big plus, Atlanta. Assuming Harper is here and not at first base, we have a true superstar matchup, with nine-time All-Star and two-time MVP Harper against five-time All-Star and one-time MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. There’s probably no wrong answer here, to be honest, as these are two outstanding players. It’s hard not to notice how strong Harper was down the stretch after Acuña’s return from a hamstring injury, even with Acuña’s late-season success after a stance change. Despite Acuña’s impressive throwing arm, neither is really an asset on defense. This is probably the closest matchup of any position. It’s true that Kyle Schwarber, like most of his Phillies teammates, ended the season in a terrible slump. It is also true that he hit 45 home runs and finished one more year among the top 25 hitters. No combination of Baldwin, who was excellent, or Dominic Smith, who got off to a good start before faltering badly after that, can match one of the greatest power hitters of the generation. Let’s be very specific about what this is and what it is not. It’s not about “who they have on the roster,” which would clearly favor the Phillies, but rather “who’s going to start.” It’s a two-game series, possibly three; Philadelphia used both Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo on the final day of the season. Atlanta is expected to go with Sale in Game 1, followed by Tyler Mahle and then, if necessary, Grant Holmes. For the Phillies, it was such a struggle to finish the season that their rotation is considerably below maximum capacity. Luzardo is expected to start Game 1, but he’s thrown all four pitches in the last month, which may, improbably if you saw it earlier in the season, lead to rookie Andrew Painter playing a big role in Game 1. To his credit, he was much better upon his return after a midseason return to the Minors, but there’s also no version of this where you’d take him over Sale. Cristopher Sanchez would likely be lined up for Game 2, and then probably Aaron Nola, although you’ll note this may end with Wheeler not being available at all. (“I mean, maybe at some point,” Mattingly said when asked.) Philadelphia clearly has the talent advantage. Atlanta, at least for the next few days, has the advantage in availability and reliability. Jhoan Duran remains one of baseball’s elite relievers, but as for how to get him the ball, well, “that’s a real problem,” as Todd Zolecki wrote in his playoff preview. It’s long been assumed that one of Philadelphia’s five good, healthy starters could operate out of the bullpen, but that also assumed the Phillies wouldn’t have needed to call every last pitch from those starters until the final day. Meanwhile, Atlanta not only had one of the best bullpens in baseball, but they are also getting Robert Suarez back just in time. We’re not going to worry about the regular season record, which doesn’t have much predictive power here, nor especially the head-to-head record, because while it’s tempting to value Atlanta’s 9-4 lead this year, it’s also not that important that things like “Taijuan Walker allowed 7 runs in 4 innings in mid-April” happened. Still, the Braves have been planning this for weeks, while the Phillies not only have uncertainty in the rotation and bullpen, but they could be without Arráez, plus two relatively weak spots in the outfield. Prediction: Braves in 3
