College football picks: Predictions, odds for key top 25 games in Week 4

A quick look at Saturday’s college football schedule shows there’s no time to pick apples this weekend. If there was ever a weekend to be locked in front of your television all day, it’s this Saturday. We have six – SIX – matchups between the top 25 alone. That’s more than the first three weeks combined and the most in a single week in three years. College football is like pizza (if you don’t know, all pizza is still pretty good), but we still have to celebrate special weekends like this. We have entered the part of the season where games really start to matter. Like No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 10 LSU. As I wrote earlier this week, that game has all the makings of an underdog-leaving-town shock. Both teams began the season as popular College Football Playoff picks, and yet one will be 0-2 in the conference before even leaving September. The data set is small, but no team has started 0-2 in conference play and still made the playoffs. That’s just one of the four best matchups in the SEC. You can start your day with No. 1 Texas at No. 14 Tennessee at noon ET. Is Arch Manning the guy we saw triumphantly lead the Longhorns to a second-half comeback win over Ohio State or the guy who struggled against UTSA? It’s a big game for Manning and a star-making opportunity for Tennessee true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon. No. 4 Ole Miss against No. 21 Florida might be the most intriguing game of the day. Fresh off a win over former coach Lane Kiffin, will Ole Miss suffer an emotional hangover or are the Rebels so good it doesn’t matter? First-year head coach Pete Golding says all the right things, but escaping The Swamp with a win won’t be easy. However, having a guy like Trinidad Chambliss certainly helps. Kamario Taylor, the other star quarterback at Mississippi State, has a chance to keep No. 24 Mississippi State’s momentum going against No. 19 Missouri. A win over the Tigers would leave the Bulldogs at 4-0 heading into a big home game against No. 8 Alabama. Outside of the SEC, we have two tasty games in the Big Ten’s top 25. No. 17 Iowa travels to No. 18 Michigan in what could be a race to see which team can score 20 points first. Both teams are on the periphery of the CFP race and could take a big step forward with a win on Saturday. And then there’s No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 USC. The Ducks, a popular preseason title pick for some, already have a bad loss to Oklahoma State and can’t afford to fall to 2-2 with what’s still left on the schedule. Oregon coach Dan Lanning has already faced criticism for the hiring of his coordinator, and that noise will only get louder with a loss in Los Angeles. For Lincoln Riley, it’s time to prove that the investment was worth it. The Trojans have a chance to make a real statement at home against Oregon and they can’t pass up that opportunity. All times, East No. 21 Florida vs. No. 4 Ole Miss 3:30 pm on ABC, Fubo (try it for free): I’m a little skeptical that Florida will be a favorite in this game, but I have no real interest in chasing the spread here. No, what I trust most is that points will be added. Florida’s defense hasn’t exactly been incredible despite playing a relatively easy schedule overall, and we’ve already seen Ole Miss allow points to Louisville and LSU. I think we’ll have another shootout here. Pick: Over 58.5 – Tom Fornelli No. 18 Michigan vs. No. 17 Iowa 3:30 pm on CBS CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App Paramount+ Premium: Michigan has been living on borrowed time all season, including the impressive Hail Mary against Western Michigan. Iowa will be the team that finally makes them pay, and ironically, it will start on offense. Running back Kamari Moulton and receiver Tony Diaz give the program one of its best RB-WR combinations in the last 20 years, and they’ll make enough explosive plays to pull off an upset in the Big House. Pick: Iowa SU (+178) – Shehan Jeyarajah No. 2 Georgia vs. Oklahoma 3:30 pm on ESPN, Fubo (free trial): The only quarterbacks in the Power Four more efficient than Gunner Stockton right now are Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss and Miami’s Darian Mensah, and no one is talking about the Georgia signal-caller’s electric start. And when you have an offensive leader with pace while the other team’s player is struggling this season from a confidence standpoint, it raises questions about Oklahoma’s ability to hold up in this matchup. This feels like a 31-7 type game unless the Sooners can get something going offensively for the first time all season against a major opponent. Pick: Under 43.5 points – Brad Crawford No. 10 LSU vs. No. 23 Texas A&M 7:30 pm on ESPN, Fubo (try it free): On the heels of an embarrassing home loss to Kentucky, Texas A&M ventures into the most intimidating nighttime atmosphere in college football. It’s the wrong spot for a team that’s dealing with shaky quarterback play. LSU also has plenty of flaws, but the Tigers are salty enough on defense to make life difficult for Marcel Reed. On the other hand, A&M’s defense never looked comfortable or disruptive against Kentucky. LSU coach Lane Kiffin should game plan for field day after watching that tape. Pick: LSU -7.5 – David Cobb No. 12 USC vs. No. 20 Oregon 7:30 pm on NBC, Fubo (try it for free): While the series between these two teams has tilted heavily in Oregon’s favor, USC hasn’t been short on points against the Ducks. And while bettors have clearly identified the strength advantage for both teams, predicting a high-scoring game with their over-under total, it still may not be enough points. These two teams combined for 69 points in 2025 and 63 points in 2023, leaving some wiggle room with the currently posted total. Pick: Over 61.5 – Chip Patterson No. 1 Texas vs. No. 14 Tennessee Noon on ABC, Fubo (free trial): After watching their dramatic comeback against Ohio State, Texas looks like a legitimate national title contender, and this line is under one touchdown. That makes it tempting to pick the Longhorns, but the Volunteers remain a mystery. Their game against Georgia Tech ended fairly early, so it’s hard to gauge exactly what to expect from that team. Therefore, the total is more attractive. I’ve documented Manning’s road struggles above, and I have to give the Texas defense the edge in a matchup against a true rookie. Points can be at a premium for much of this game. Pick: Under 55.5 SportsLine’s proven computer model has simulated every Week 4 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that has a 22-19 streak on top-rated CFB picks this season.