While it usually takes a few days before we get more official draw rate numbers for any new Pokémon TCG set, early evidence shows that the 30th celebration is the most generous set in years. We’re talking Crown Zenith levels of good draw, with more than one in every two packs having at least one ex card and the best rates on rare special art ever. And that’s despite the fact that this set has half the cards in each pack. As a result, for the first time in two years, the resale market has completely stagnated! The 30th celebration follows the pattern we see every five years, with Pikachu stamps on every card and a mix of new cards and reprinted classics. The difference this time is that, for the first time, international audiences receive these cards at the same time as Japan, with the strange side effect that the rest of the world also receives only five cards per pack, as is the norm in Japan. But despite half the cards to take advantage of luck, the draw rates shown by YouTubers who review hundreds of packs indicate a better than one in two chance of getting an ex or better. And there are many better ones. The 30th anniversary celebration is unique in many ways. Every card in every pack is at least one holo, and each pack comes with a holographic energy card and a guaranteed holographic Pikachu from a subset of 30 cards featuring the yellow mouse. There are the now familiar ex cards, a wide range of Artwork Rare (IR), Special Artwork Rare (SIR), and some new Future Rare cards featuring Mew and Mewtwo. But on top of that, there’s also the Classic Collection, 30 fan-favorite cards from the last 30 years, including the original holo Charizard base set, Gengar Prime, and that glorious Magikarp from Paldea Evolved. And then on top of all that, there are three RGB Mew cards so rare that The Pokémon Company won’t even acknowledge they exist (and may not for months). A New Crown When Crown Zenith, the climactic stage of the Sword & Shield era, was first released in January 2023, fans rejoiced. The special set had a next-level hit rate, with a 50 percent chance of finding a V or better card, and had its incredible Galarian Gallery of exceptionally beautiful cards that weren’t impossible to draw. In fact, it was so good that it made the initial era of Scarlet & Violet sets seem anticlimactic and unpleasantly stingy. In the three years since then, those draw rates have only gotten crueler, with The Pokémon Company International opting to guarantee a holo in every pack (thus making them in bulk) and flooding sets with the new version of ex cards, along with increasingly rare IR and SIR. The latter, the more desirable and intricately illustrated cards, have become so ridiculously difficult to find that you’re unlikely to see even one in a booster box of 36. I think I did three sets in a row, opening 50 packs per set, without seeing a single one. And this, of course, has only worsened the resale misery that has put PTCG in a quagmire for two years. But for now, at least for this collection, that’s all changing. And it is having the excellent effect of seeing prices already falling to pre-bubble levels. Even Future Rare Mew and Mewtwo, which were initially priced at around $1,000 on launch day, are now selling for around $150. Why? Because people can take them out of the packages! Kids and collectors can get the cards they want most, and in a volume that prevents resellers and resellers from being able to charge ridiculous amounts. It usually takes two or three weeks from launch day for prices to level off noticeably, so we could even see these numbers go down (or, as the market itself realizes, in some cases go up). Those who buy cards to gamble for riches are out of luck, and thank goodness. While we have to wait a few days before the usual suspects do their full calculations on the 30th celebration to get the official pull rates, the results are there to see on any number of YouTube channels. The insufferable Leon Hart also opened 151 packs and had very similar results, putting Mew and Mewtwo Future Rares at less than 50 packs. Meanwhile, attraction rate expert Danny Phantump has begun his experiments and is seeing excellent results, with plans to reveal figures on Friday. DigitalTQ also has some starting numbers, but they are based on much larger 420 packs. This shows that Mew and Mewtwo have almost a 1 percent chance of appearing, which is significantly higher than what we saw for Hyper Rares in previous sets. Most striking is the frequency of SIRs, reported at 5.24 percent, four to five times higher than the rates seen in the Scarlet & Violet and Mega Evolution sets over the past four years. SIRs have long been limited to about 1 in 80 packs, making them difficult to get, but this has now increased to more than 1 in 20 packs. Meanwhile, rares double in frequency, appearing in one out of every five packs, instead of every ten. It means that if you get an Elite Trainer Box or a collector’s box, there’s a good chance you’ll get at least one gorgeous card with full art, which makes the hobby a lot more fun. And, just as important, deflate the power of resellers and resellers. There are still those RGB Mews there, which means there’s still the thrill of hunting down something extraordinarily rare for those who need it. There are no official figures on these yet, given how few have been pulled so far, but rumors suggest they could be as rare as one in 20,000 packs. At last. While there’s little reason to believe this could be the start of a new trend, given that Crown Zenith’s delight was immediately toppled by Scarlet & Violet’s sets, it’s still something to celebrate for now. And it’s a rare joy to see those resale prices drop.
