Yemen’s Houthi rebels are waging a concerted campaign to take full control of the country’s Red Sea coast, reclaiming control of the key port of Mocha, in the most serious wave of clashes with the Saudi-backed government in years. Seizing the coast would be a strategic disaster for Saudi Arabia and the United States, bringing Iran and its proxies closer to full control of two choke points for Western shipping on opposite sides of the Arabian Peninsula: Bab al-Mandeb at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula. Sea and the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf. Observers have said a reduction in hostilities, the most intense since the U.N.-sponsored ceasefire in April 2022 ended major military exchanges, now appears unlikely in what is seen as an attempt by the Houthis to open a second front in the war between Iran and the United States, alongside the battle for control of Hormuz. The Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a London-based defense and security think tank, said the situation in Yemen was getting out of control, adding that the UN-recognized Yemeni government was opening new fronts against the Houthis in the hope of being able to put more pressure on the rebels than they could bear. A screenshot of a video released by Saudi-backed forces shows a rocket launching during fighting in Taiz province. Photograph: Yemen National Resistance Forces/AFP/Getty Images The fighting has also raised questions about whether Saudi Arabia, which launched up to 40 airstrikes against Houthi targets on Thursday, will activate the Makkah defense deal and ask its co-signatories Pakistan and Turkey to send forces. The pact is designed to be defensive in nature and is believed to be unlikely to apply to Saudi military activities in Yemen. By taking control of more of the Red Sea coast south of the port of Hodeidah, the Houthis aim to pressure Saudi Arabia and the United States to reach a deal that lifts the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf. Donald Trump acknowledged Wednesday that he did not expect the war with Iran to end before the US midterm elections in early November. The latest phase of the escalation began when the Houthis attacked energy facilities and cities in southern Saudi Arabia using drones and ballistic missiles. In response, the kingdom’s military forces launched at least 15 attacks between September 3 and 7, following Houthi attacks on Mocha last month. The rebel group claims it now controls the port. Photograph: Al Joumhouriya TV/Reuters Conflict data monitor Acled estimated there were 276 deaths during the five-day period alone. Fighting has continued with the Houthis claiming control of Mocha in Taiz province, as well as the inner city of Hays and the Khalid ibn al-Walid camp, the largest military base in the region. One estimate linked to the Houthis suggested that rebel forces had taken control of more than 2,320 square miles (6,000 square kilometers) of land. The commander of Yemeni government forces, Major General Tareq Saleh, admitted that he had organized a strategic withdrawal south of Mocha to regroup in a safe location. “Armed forces on the west coast have paid a heavy price – martyrs and injuries – in recent days as they confront the Houthi attack planned and supported by Iran,” he said. A satellite image shows smoke billowing from an Aramco oil depot near the Saudi city of Abha after a Houthi attack. Photograph: Planet Labs/AFP/Getty Images Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, continues to leverage its air superiority to attack Houthi positions, although government sources acknowledged the rebels’ ground advances along the coast and their missile attacks on the strategic Red Sea islands of Zuqar and Hanish. Clashes have spread throughout Yemen, including Ad Dali, al-Bayda, Marib, Shabwah, al-Jawf, Hodeidah and Taiz. In the early days of the renewed conflict, the Houthis were forced to retreat in some areas as battles on multiple fronts strained their resources and numbers of fighters. The Houthis hope that political divisions within the Yemeni government, reflected in the lack of an integrated army, will gradually give them the advantage. The United Arab Emirates, previously a powerful player in southern Yemen, where it backed separatist forces in the Southern Transitional Council, withdrew its financial and military support at the beginning of the year. Southern forces have refused to fight outside their own region. A screenshot of a video released by Saudi-backed forces shows a fighter firing at Houthi rebels in Taiz province. Photograph: Yemen National Resistance Forces/AFP/Getty Images “A de-escalation of hostilities appears unlikely in the short term, as both sides continue to escalate with the aim of inflicting enough damage on the other side to force a compromise,” said Sherwan Hindreen Ali, Yemen analyst at Acled. “In terms of military capabilities, both sides are more evenly matched compared to the immediate period before the 2022 ceasefire, when the Houthis had the advantage.” He added: “Fighting will remain focused on the Red Sea coast fronts in Hodeidah and Taiz, where both the Houthis and the government of Saudi Arabia and Yemen have a strong interest in claiming the entire territory to deprive the other side of effective control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.” with the price of oil rising above $100 a barrel after weeks in which it was trading closer to $80. A screenshot of a video reportedly showing Houthi attacks on Saudi-backed forces in al-Jawf province. Photograph: Ansarullah Media Centre/AFP/Getty Images The escalation to full violence this week has been a slow process. It began after a senior Houthi delegation from the group, which has long been in a complex alliance with Iran, flew to Tehran for the funeral of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in July, returning on an Iranian plane that the Saudis refused to land in rebel-held Sanaa. Instead, the Saudis bombed the runway, prompting the Houthis to announce a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea in what Yemeni rebels described as a blockade for blockade. The announcement of the blockade on July 20 was followed by an attack on the Jazan refinery in Saudi Arabia on July 25 and an oil tanker off Yanbu on August 24. Saudi Arabia has become dependent on the Red Sea route for trade after Iran strangled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following attacks by the United States and Israel.
