The world is heading toward an “unrecoverable overshoot” of global temperature thresholds that will plunge billions of people into disastrous climate impacts because governments have delayed for so long to reduce planet-warming emissions, according to an analysis. Under current policies, the planet will warm by an average of 2.7°C by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times, according to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) report. This is slightly higher than the 2.6°C prediction in the group’s analysis last year. This level of warming exceeds the 1.5 °C threshold agreed by countries a decade ago, but which is expected to be exceeded in just a few years. Scientists have warned that beyond this point, storms, droughts, heat waves, floods and other already damaging impacts will become intolerable for some parts of the world and potentially trigger runaway climate change that cannot be contained. The countries, minus the United States, are meeting in the Turkish city of Antalya for U.N. climate talks that have focused on the imminent “overshoot” of the temperature target. This reality should force governments to act quickly to phase out the use of fossil fuels that are causing the climate crisis, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Tuesday. If countries acted decisively to reduce emissions, future temperature projections would be less discouraging, the CAT report states. However, even in the most optimistic scenario – in which all long-term pledges, targets and other pledges made by countries are met – the world would still warm to 1.9°C by the end of the century. However, these objectives have been systematically failed to be met by the countries that have set them. This means leaders face a critical moment, experts say. “The difficult choice for governments is to continue supporting the fossil fuel industry, which would condemn humanity to insurmountable economic damage, increasing heat mortality and climate-induced diseases and disasters to which they cannot adapt, or turn to solutions that are available and cheaper than ever,” says Bill Hare, executive director of CAT partner organization Climate Analytics. defeatism” and that every small increment in temperature rise will be significant. The CAT analysis is similar to one recently published by the UN, which uses previous CAT data to inform its own projections. While the world is failing to reduce emissions in line with science and countries’ own pledges, carbon pollution will decline slightly this year and CAT pointed to some reasons for optimism. Investment in clean energy is now double that of fossil fuels, use of electric cars is increasing and deforestation of the Amazon in Brazil has declined dramatically. But much more will need to be done to avoid disastrous climate impacts. Greta Thunberg, the Swedish climate advocate, arrived in Antalya on Tuesday and warned that “everything and everyone we love is at stake” due to the failure to confront the climate crisis. The United States, Canada and New Zealand, are even slowing their climate action to a “staggering level,” he added.
