A worker holds up “I voted today” stickers during early voting on Oct. 14, 2026 in Des Moines, Iowa. Charlie Neibergall/Getty Images hide caption toggle caption i Charlie Neibergall/Getty Images In the final week of the 2026 midterm elections, data on advertising spending suggests the central battle is less about stemming a Democratic wave in the House than determining how high it peaks. An NPR analysis finds the final House competitive landscape is broad, including 70 districts where both parties are spending at least six figures per district in their final days of messaging. That includes more than $10 million each in contested districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York and Florida; Seven-figure ad buys in deep red communities in Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas and last-minute appeals to districts where Republican gerrymandering could backfire. In a midterm environment that disfavors the party in power, the Republicans’ narrow lead of 218-214 seats in the House appears almost certain to give way to Democratic control. The latest ratings from the Cook Political Report find that Democrats are favored in 220 seats, 17 listed as “contested” and another 30 that are potentially competitive but lean toward the GOP. Competitive races on paper Most of the seats that had close margins in the 2024 presidential election cycle have changed the path for Democrats, especially in the 10 districts that voted for one party’s presidential candidate and the other party’s House candidate. That includes seats held by Democratic Reps. Adam Gray (CA-13), Nellie Pou (NJ-09), and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez (WA-03) and outgoing Republican Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02). In those four districts, Republicans have drastically reduced advertising reservations in recent weeks, according to AdImpact data. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds Democrats holding a 10-point lead among registered voters and an 8-point lead among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. That means a much larger number of seats are competitive on paper, before taking into account the quality of candidates or outside spending. The cost of living remains voters’ top concern as rising gas prices, tariffs and the ongoing war in Iran weigh on the economic woes of many Americans. At the same time, a record number of congressional recall announcements have been amplified by an anti-delivery streak in the primaries. A wave of redistricting in the middle of the decade after a Supreme Court decision that further overturned part of the Voting Rights Act further confused the map, as Republicans changed boundary lines to add more conservative voters to districts controlled by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Don Davis (NC-01), Shomari Figures (AL-02), and Darren Soto (FL-09). (Democrats did the same in California for districts currently held by Republican Reps. James Gallagher (CA-01), David Valadao (CA-22), Ken Calvert (CA-41), Darrell Issa (CA-48), and independent Kevin Kiley (CA-06)). Only Figures and Soto are in districts that currently favor Republicans. Big spending in many places As millions of voters have already cast their ballots in the midterm elections, there are dozens of races that Democrats and Republicans consider worthy of a heavy investment in the final hours to help shape the outcome. The most expensive among them: Michigan’s District 7 and North Carolina’s District 1, each with more than $12 million in planned spending; Florida’s 14th, 22nd, and 25th districts; New York’s 17th District; Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd districts and a host of other races that either favor Democrats or are considered out. They include seats redrawn by Republicans this year to minimize Democratic voting power, such as Alabama’s 2nd District and Tennessee’s 9th District, and districts where voters backed Trump in 2024 by more than 10 points, such as Kentucky’s 6th District and Arkansas’ 2nd District. In total, the 70 races that have at least six figures of each party’s ad spending voted for Trump by an average of 9 points in 2024. There are 60 districts listed as priorities for both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms, highlighting the impact of the Trump administration’s unpopularity with voters over the past year. Not all races will end up close or see control of the party change hands. Many of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Swing Districts,” for example, gave Trump about 60% of the vote in 2024 and have seen little to no ad spending from either party.
