Texas, Alabama and LSU lost as top-10 teams on Saturday. Oklahoma beat the No. 1 team in the country with a blocked punt and a pick 6. And Kentucky won in overtime with a 2-point conversion for the second straight week. The market spent Sunday night pricing all that in, and 21 of the 59 spreads on our dashboard had already moved a point and a half or more heading into Monday. Those are the numbers I want to bet on before the week calms them down. AdvertisementHere are three Week 7 college football bets I like right now. 25 Northwestern (-7.5, 48.5) at Michigan StatePat Fitzgerald coached Northwestern for 17 seasons, was fired in the summer of 2023 in the hazing scandal, sued the school for $130 million and settled last August. On Saturday at 12 pm ET, the Wildcats come to East Lansing ranked 25th and Fitzgerald’s Spartans are 2-4 (0-3 in the Big Ten). This opened Northwestern -9.5 and has been bet as high as -7.5 in several books, so I’m not the only one who looked at it. The Wildcats have earned the classification. The only loss was 29-23 at Indiana, they rushed for 413 yards at Penn State in the first game at the new Ryan Field, Aidan Chiles has nine touchdowns and no interceptions and they are 4-1 against the spread. While the Wildcats have the 22nd-ranked offense in the country, the defense is a different story. Northwestern allows 381 yards per game (98th in the country) and 233 of them through the air (100th). The 16.2 points per game he gave up came against South Dakota State, Colorado, Ball State and a Penn State team that has lost three straight. The only real offense on the schedule, Indiana, rushed for 271 yards and scored 29 points. Our deserved points reading flattered Northwestern’s results at about four points per game. Michigan State is also not the same team that scored 10, 13 and 3 in three straight losses. Our new in-season grade ranks Michigan State’s offense with the 25th-largest improvement in the country, two spots behind Northwestern’s. Spartans starting RB Cam Edwards is out for the year and Jaziun Patterson has taken care of that. We make this Northwestern 27, Michigan State 21. Bet on Michigan State to cover the spread at the sportsbooks. It should be 44 degrees and dry at start, both teams are playing slow (Northwestern is 117th in pace and Michigan State is 109th), so there aren’t many possessions to get a 7.5 point margin. The way this goes wrong is Michigan State’s poor red zone defense (129). Fitzgerald is going to have this group ready for one game on the schedule, and this is the one. Bet: Michigan State +7.5 (-108) Fresno State (-8.5, 45.5) at San Diego State San Diego State lost to Oregon State 66-14 last week and the first number in this game was Fresno State by 9.5. Now they are 8.5. The market is still pricing in the 66 points allowed. I’m not defending San Diego State’s offense: It ranks 135th in the country with 278 yards per game, QB Jayden Denegal is completing 53.6% of his passes with six touchdowns and five picks, the Aztecs are 1-5 against the spread and entered October with a mumps outbreak and nearly three dozen names on the availability report. Sean Lewis said that “the football gods haven’t really favored us with injury luck”, and he’s right. The question is whether Fresno State wins by more than eight points. The Bulldogs are 4-2, but we rank the offense 91st in the country, and QB Jayden Mandal has eight touchdown passes in six games. The two best finishes (49-3 at Sacramento State and 26-6 at Washington State) came against an FCS team and a 30-yard rushing team. On Saturday, Boise State rushed for 274 yards with 6.1 YPC, held the ball for 38:58 and won 38-31 at Fresno. Our earned points read flatters the Bulldogs at 4.4 points per game, the largest gap in this article, and San Diego State wins exactly what is shown. In other words, the Aztecs are bad, but not 66-14 bad. The only thing San Diego State does is run. Javion Kinnard has 355 yards, and the Aztecs rushed for 237, 144 and 192 yards in September before the injuries. Fresno State’s run defense allows 165 YPG per game (101). The two teams that ran scored 24 and 38. San Diego State doesn’t need to shoot to get to 17 here. The risk is that it plays the 17th-fastest pace in the country behind a defense that allows 478 yards per game, and fast and mean is how you lose by 50. We make this Fresno State 25th, San Diego State 18th, and Fresno’s +8 turnover margin (fifth in the nation), is the most why the number isn’t lower. It’s 87 degrees at the 7:30 pm local start with no wind. Take the 8.5 while you’re there.Bet: San Diego State +8.5 (-110)AdNo. 15 Kentucky at Oklahoma (-7, 43.5) Will Stein has coached six games at Kentucky and won two of them in overtime on 2-point conversions: 35-34 at South Carolina after a 17-point, 35-34 comeback victory over No. 10 LSU on Saturday. Oklahoma beat No. 1 Texas 27-24 with a blocked punt in the end zone, a 42-yard pick 6 and a 47-yard field goal on the final play. The market saw the Sooners’ 238 yards of offense and opened this total at 41.5. Now it is 43.5. We make it 47.6. Oklahoma’s offense ranks 128th in the country and 126th on third down, going three for seven against Texas, while quarterback John Mateer threw for 155 yards and no touchdowns. According to Bill Connelly’s post-game win expectancy, Texas wins that game 93% of the time. Oklahoma’s defense is the reason the Sooners are alive, as we rank the No. 6 unit in the country. But that only covers one side of the field. Kentucky’s defense allows 28 points per game (108th), 246 passing yards per game (116th) and allows opponents to score on 92% of trips to the red zone (112th). He gave up 34 points to South Carolina and LSU in consecutive weeks, but the Wildcats were missing three linebackers, two defensive backs and a defensive lineman. Oklahoma has scored 10, 14, 13 and 27 against FBS teams since the opener, and isn’t seeing a softer SEC defense than this one. The Sooners score on 90% of their trips to the red zone when they get there, and Kentucky allows teams to get there. The Wildcats’ offense is also real: we have it ranked 29th in the country. Kentucky is +7 in turnover margin (sixth nationally) and Oklahoma is -4 (116), which is how a field goal game becomes 27-24 with a pick 6. Oklahoma’s last four games ended with 27, 20, 54 and 51 points, and the two that surpassed this number were the two with real offense on the other side. It’s 56 degrees and calm in Norman, so there’s no weather to slow this down. We are four points above the number and 43.5 is still posted on BetMGM. Bet: Over 43.5 (-110)
