Listen to this articleEstimated 4 minutesThe audio version of this article is generated using AI-based technology. Pronunciation errors may occur. We work with our partners to continually review and improve results. In last year’s federal election, tariff threats and Donald Trump’s rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state produced an unusual plot twist in Quebec: Talks about defending the province’s interests suddenly took a backseat to defending Canada against its neighbor. On election day, Mark Carney’s Liberals capitalized on that sentiment, earning the party’s best showing in the province in decades and sidelining the Bloc Québécois. Debates over Quebec identity, secularism and language were drowned out by the noise from Washington. With the provincial election beginning today, could the president of the United States play that enormous role once again? The newly imposed tariffs dominated discussions in the days leading up to the campaign launch, forcing all party leaders to show they can protect the province from the economic fallout. “It seems that managing the economy in times of uncertainty could be the question of the ballot box,” Philippe Fournier, polling analyst and founder of the website. Qc125, told CBC News. Trade War and Everything Else Before the trade war escalated, polls suggested that health care, housing and the cost of living were top issues for voters. In that sense, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) was facing an uphill battle after two terms in power and a disaffected electorate, said André Lecours, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa. The CAQ has the most to gain if economic stability ends up being a priority for voters, he said. “Almost overnight, the key question went from, ‘How do you judge the last eight years of government?’ to, ‘Who do you want to handle this crisis?’” Lecours said. According to a recent report by Oxford Economics, Quebec is among the provinces that will take the biggest hit from the new tariffs, given its heavy dependence on automobile, metals and manufacturing exports. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, whose Parti Québécois (PQ) leads opinion polls, attempted to defuse the issue last week by confirming that he would not call a referendum until the end. of Trump’s second term in the White House. “This election is about Quebec and what we need to do for the future of Quebec,” St-Pierre Plamondon told reporters. However, the latest polls suggest the race is tightening, with the ruling CAQ, stuck behind the PQ and the Liberals for months, gaining ground. Comparisons with CarneyCAQ leader Christine Fréchette have the advantage of being in power during the unrest. weeks leading up to the campaign, first to announce the Churchill Falls energy deal and then on Tuesday to unveil $11 billion in funding for six new icebreakers built in Quebec. Fréchette also announced two new financial aid programs aimed specifically at small and medium-sized businesses in the manufacturing and primary sectors most affected by tariffs. The CAQ hopes Fréchette will replicate Carney’s rise after taking charge of an unpopular ruling party. Carney’s popularity immediately boosted the Liberals, while the CAQ did not see the same continued improvement under Fréchette. And, he added, there is no similar opponent to conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who was “accused of sounding too much like Trump.” The government’s negotiating tactics had failed to protect Quebec interests Charles Milliard, leader of the Quebec Liberals, said his party would be best suited to forge stronger relationships with the federal government and other provinces. Meanwhile, Québec Solidaire has proposed a $1 billion-a-year “Trump provision” to directly support affected workers and businesses, while Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives are promising $47 billion in spending cuts and tax relief. “I think he’ll take the lead,” Fournier said, “but we don’t know who it will be yet.”
