With the Federal Reserve’s decision and most of earnings season behind us, the last full week of September features lighter financial programming, opening the door to whatever unexpected news the universe has in store. For example, a gigantic essential meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in which the most important figures in AI will participate, and a large Meta conference. Last week, stocks remained mostly stagnant despite the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023, as investors looked hard at bonds and stocks, trying to get a read on the various rooms in the market. Trying to figure out what the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike really means (and whether it will make any difference to inflation) will be high on the week’s to-do list. Stocks have largely plunged as the two competing forces have canceled each other out: high bond yields and strong earnings forecasts. Read more: How the Fed’s Rate Decision Affects Your Bank Accounts, Loans, Credit Cards and Investments While the earnings calendar is relatively quiet, we’ll be keeping an eye on corporate reports from Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) and Darden Restaurants (DRI), which will provide controls for consumers and, in the case of Costco, a key place where inflation meets the road. We’ll also be keeping an eye on comments from KB Home (KBH) as mortgage rates rise again. Without major economic data releases, some of the more specific data may take center stage. Keep an eye on our calendar. Trump and Xi prepare to dine with AI titans President Trump will host Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week for the second time in 2026. A lot has happened since Trump’s visit to China in May: a messy war with Iran, a corresponding energy crisis, and rising risks amid an AI arms race between the two countries, just to name a few plot points. Going into this, one has to imagine that Trump is seeking victories with low approval ratings and that growing list of things the public cares about, on a bipartisan basis no less. U.S. President Donald Trump, right, takes part in a friendship walk through Zhongnanhai Garden with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Friday, May 15, 2026. (Evan Vucci/Pool Photo via AP, File) · Evan Vucci/Pool Reuters via AP The obvious thing markets are looking for is a continuation of the trade truce between the two countries before it expires in November. While that is expected, any meeting between volatile parties could always turn into something worrying. Especially when discussing sensitive topics like Taiwan or a war with no visible way out. It’s not hard to see how this last issue could present problems: China, which is close to Iran, has reportedly been circumventing sanctions and possibly even sharing intelligence with Tehran. One thing both parties can be aligned on is setting aside the risks of AI, as both Xi and Trump appear to have little interest in stopping the arms race. But with numerous AI titans attending a state dinner on Thursday (OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang among those confirmed) things could get interesting. And, like everything related to the Trump administration and the negotiations, be prepared for the unexpected. Markets look to FedSpeak and oil for answers. We have seen that the markets have found it difficult to analyze the Fed’s rate hike last Wednesday. Wall Street rightly pointed out that the Federal Reserve cannot control the oil crisis and, as BlackRock’s Rick Rieder cleverly pointed out, inflation occurs in the part of the economy that is not cyclical. That is to say: things that are more of a need than a want, like healthcare and public services. And you can’t really suppress the demand for that, can you? At the same time, the bond market is a little happier. And the shares have barely moved. John C. Williams, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks at the Milken Institute Global Conference at the Beverly Hilton Hotel on May 6, 2024 in Beverly Hills, California. (Apu Gomes/Getty Images) · Apu Gomes via Getty Images This head-scratcher is why Wall Street will look to FedSpeak to try to make sense of things. As TD’s macro research team noted in a research note, New York Fed President John Williams is “the highlight, although he will likely appear elusive in October.” Others, including Barr, Jefferson, Goolsbee, Barkin, Paulson and Hammack, will complete a busy comment schedule. But TD points out that Paulson, who has been a dove, should be the one to watch as “a sign of how aggressive the Committee has become.” As everyone has rightly said, FedSpeak is only part of the equation. The other part is the “oil language.” Any news about changes in supply would be a welcome relief for markets. Meta and Qualcomm take the stage from both sides of the AI spectrum Meta (META) kicks off its Connect conference on Wednesday and the company is expected to unveil a new version of its glasses, fresh off Snap’s foray into the space. The company recently launched a subscription platform called “Meta One,” in an effort to monetize its AI business for consumers. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg wears AI smart glasses and a wristband as he speaks during the company’s Connect developer conference on Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025, in Menlo Park, Calif. (AP Photo/Nic Coury) · ASSOCIATED PRESS While the business side of the AI revolution has primarily been the factor driving markets, recent developments from Apple and Meta have put the consumer potential of AI in the spotlight. According to Reuters, Meta’s new wearable device may not have a camera, adding a new twist to the recent boom in hardware innovation beyond the phone. Markets will also see some action on the infrastructure side of the AI supply chain with Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Summit (QCOM), which begins Tuesday in Hawaii. Economic and Earnings Calendar Monday Economic Data: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, August (expected -0.06, previously -0.08) Earnings Calendar: No notable gains. Tuesday Economic data: ADP weekly employment change, week ending September 5 (+16,250 previously); Philadelphia Federal Reserve Non-Manufacturing Index, September (previously -10.6); Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, September (previously 4); Richmond Fed Trading Conditions, September (-12 previously) Earnings Calendar: THOR Industries (THO), KB Home (KBH) Wednesday Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Applications, Week Ending September 18 (-4.1% previously); S&P US Global Manufacturing PMI, preliminary September reading (expected 53.6, previously 53.9); S&P Global US Services PMI, preliminary September reading (expected 56, previously 56.5); S&P Global US Composite PMI, September Preliminary Reading (56 previously) Earnings Calendar: Cintas Corporation (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), General Mills (GIS), HB Fuller Company (FUL), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) Thursday Economic Data: Current Account Balance, Q2 (-$226.8 billion previously); Initial unemployment claims, week ending September 19 (previously 196,000); Continuing claims, week ending September 12 (previously 1.73 million); New home sales, month-over-month, August (+1.3% expected, -10.5% previously); Construction permits, month-over-month, final August reading (-2.7% previously); Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, September (10 previously) Results Calendar: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC), BlackBerry (BB), Scholastic Corporation (SCHL) Friday Economic Data: Durable Goods Orders, August Preliminary Reading (-0.3% expected, +1.1% previously); Kansas City Fed services activity, September (-3 previously); University of Michigan Sentiment, final September reading (expected 47.8, previously 47.8); U. Michigan Current Conditions, Final September Reading (previously 50.9); University of Michigan Expectations, final September reading (45.8 previously); US 1-year inflation, final September reading (+4.6% previously); U. Michigan 5-10 Year Inflation, Final September Reading (+3.4% previously) Earnings Calendar: Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) Click here for an in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events influencing stock prices Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
