WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans appeared to have firm control over the Senate heading into the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term. But with less than two months until Election Day, control of the chamber is now up for grabs. Democrats have found themselves competing in states that once seemed out of reach, as President Donald Trump’s sagging approval ratings and voter dissatisfaction with the economy create a difficult political environment for Republicans. But races that Democrats once counted on winning have also become more complicated. It’s a battle that’s expected to top $3.4 billion in spending across all races during the midterm campaign. The implications are enormous for Trump’s agenda and his ability to fill administrative positions and court vacancies for the remainder of his term, since the Senate is empowered to confirm or block presidential nominees. Republicans say it’s unlikely everything will change in Democrats’ favor, but they acknowledge they face a difficult outlook. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told South Dakota’s KELOLAND News last week that he is “concerned” about losing the chamber. “I’m a realist,” Thune said. “I never try to sugarcoat things. I think it’s a competitive environment right now.” Democrats face a difficult path to the majority. Democrats need to gain four seats to win the majority. The original path had been to retain Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire while regaining Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. But things have changed. “We now have multiple paths to a majority,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said last month. “We found new states (Iowa, Texas) that people didn’t even pay attention to a year ago.” Some of the states where Democrats were most optimistic at the start of the election cycle, such as Michigan and Maine, have become murkier. In Michigan, where there is one seat up for grabs this fall, no Republican candidate has won a Senate race since 1994. But Democrats are struggling to unite behind candidate Abdul El-Sayed. The progressive favorite narrowly defeated moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in the August primary, and feelings remain raw over a bruising race that saw nearly $70 million spent against El-Sayed. Republicans believe Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race by fewer than 20,000 votes, has a better chance against El-Sayed. The Senate Leadership Fund, the spending PAC of Senate Republicans, added $6 million to its advertising spending in Michigan after El-Sayed won, bringing its total spending to $51 million, the third-highest total. Sign up for the Ground Game newsletter: your guide to the biggest stories in American politics, policy and elections. Democrats also saw a prime opportunity to finally defeat five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, where Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris won more votes than Trump in 2024. Progressive Graham Platner easily won the nomination in June, but dropped out of the race the following month over a sexual assault allegation that he denies. In late July, Democratic delegates chose Troy Jackson, a lesser-known former state legislative leader, to replace him. Jackson has been forced to play catch-up. Collins and aligned super PACs have spent nearly $80 million so far, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact, while Jackson and Democratic-aligned groups have spent and set aside nearly $45 million since becoming the nominee. As one path narrowed for Democrats, others widened. Democrats increasingly see a real possibility in Texas, a state that has been an elusive target for decades, and in other GOP-led states, including Iowa, Alaska and Ohio. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who unseated four-term Republican Sen. John Cornyn to win the Republican nomination. The Senate Republican leadership endorsed Cornyn, considering him the strongest candidate for the general election. Paxton has been dogged for decades by legal and ethical issues, including accusations of securities fraud, although he was not convicted. Talarico and allied groups have spent nearly $30 million on advertising since the May runoff, compared to less than $3 million from pro-Paxton groups. The political fund associated with Trump last week spent $10 million on television and digital ads to help Paxton, MAGA Inc.’s first major investment in the general election for the midterms. Senate Republican leaders had asked Trump’s political team to spend some of the more than $400 million he had last month to help Paxton. Democrats have also increased their spending in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina, all states currently held by Republicans. Meanwhile, the GOP is feeling more optimistic about New Hampshire and Michigan, while spending more to defend seats in Iowa and Alaska. The expanded map has raised the total spending planned for this cycle. In June, AdImpact projected $3.4 billion in ad spending in the Senate elections, a significant increase from the $2.8 billion the ad spending firm projected in the fall of 2025. Why are more states in play than expected? Democrats’ path has widened in part because of Trump’s declining job approval, particularly on his handling of the economy, which was at 32% according to an AP-NORC poll in July, down from 40% in March 2025, shortly after. took office. Trump’s trade policies and the war in Iran, with their corresponding inflated fuel costs, have increased economic uncertainty for voters with less than two months until Election Day. “Things still cost too much. That’s why we have to work on that issue,” Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio told The Associated Press. “We understand it and we know it’s real.” Ohio Sen. Jon Husted heard the concern firsthand at a roundtable last month. Husted looks to fend off the return of former Senator Sherrod Brown in another key matchup for both parties. During the housing discussion, an aide told Husted that costs were “skyrocketing” in part because of uncertainty around tariffs. “Uncertainty is the cause of death of this economy,” said Dean Windham, a real estate developer who previously ran for Republican office. Some Republican Senate candidates have defended Trump’s policies while facing concerns about their economic impact. In Michigan, where Trump’s tariffs on Canada have become a central issue, Rogers has supported the president’s approach, although he has left room for disagreement. “President Trump is right to put America first, and tariffs are necessary, but they are not a one-size-fits-all solution,” Rogers said in a recent statement. They would need to flip at least two seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024 to win a majority. Republicans are betting that those underlying advantages will matter more as Election Day approaches, particularly as Trump and the party turn their attention to mobilizing the voters who helped return him to the White House. Trump told reporters last week that he will “make a lot of stops” in the final 30 days before the election. Next week, Republicans will hold a midterm convention in Texas, where Trump will speak and leading Senate candidates, including Rogers and Husted, are expected to attend. But Republicans recognize they have work to do. “Politics is local,” said Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota. He pointed to Trump’s decision to import beef, which he said made farmers and ranchers “feel like the administration pulled the rug out from under them.” “They’re hurt,” Rounds said. “They feel like they’ve been let down.” ___Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa.
