Where does this super-charged El Niño stand?The entire globe is entering uncharted territory with this rare, burgeoning El Niño, because it’s not just a strong phenomenon; it has a legitimate chance of becoming the strongest we’ve ever observed, in over a century. This El Niño reached “super” status this summer, occurring when ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America, heat up at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal. The last time we broke that threshold was in 2015-2016. This particular event, however, is set to surpass that one and even eclipse the strongest El Niño on record, back in 1877-1878, when sea-surface temperatures reached a very hot 2.7 to 3.5 degrees C above normal. What’s also eye-opening is that the sea-surface temperature covering the stretch of ocean that comprises the El Niño region has been setting new daily high records since June 1. That’s every single day so far this meteorological summer. Sea surface temperatures over the El Niño region across the Equatorial Pacific have set new daily highs since June 1.Climate BrinkEl Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern that develops naturally across the tropical Eastern Pacific. Every two to seven years, the seas just west of South America warm significantly while the trade winds weaken or even reverse. Take a look at the sea-surface temperatures compared to average across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean since the start of July. The darker areas indicate where it’s the hottest.Sea surface temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific over the past 30 days have really heated up.Cyclonic WxThis “atmospheric adjustment” changes how the jet stream moves around the globe, influencing where storms develop, where they track, and whether regions turn hotter or colder. Strong El Niño winters have one steadfast characteristic — warmthHistory tells us that the stronger an El Niño event, the greater the odds that temperatures will finish above normal December through February. NOAA scientist Jared Rennie put it plainly: “Strong El Niños bring warmer temperatures to the Northeast during the winter.”I took a quick look at the last four Super El Niño events, dating as far back as 1982-83, and all of them finished with New England notably warmer than average (around an average of 3 degrees). And with climate change boosting our starting temperatures for winter, a warmer season is almost certainly guaranteed. Temperatures across New England usually trend warmer than normal during an El Niño pattern.Boston GlobeGet ready for more precipitation this winter, just not much snowThat doesn’t mean winter will disappear. In fact, a more active jet stream will likely send a steady parade of storms across the Northeast, and we’ll wind up with more precipitation than average. This often means more nor’easters, too, but not necessarily more snowstorms.We’ll still have our cold snaps. Snow will still fall, but the periods of mild weather will likely last longer, and more of our winter storms will produce rain instead of snow, especially along the I-95 corridor across New England — that means less snow for Portland, Boston, and Providence with the relatively warmer ocean nearby. We can even expect more mixed precipitation events for the interior and the mountains across New England. I certainly expect snowfall may be interrupted by periods of rain or rapid thaws, which will make it a challenge for our ski and snow sports industry up north. Our past El Niño winters, seen below, have fared rather dismally in terms of seasonal snowfall totals.Moderate to strong El Nino years often bring less snow than average to most of the Northeast.NOAAIf this El Niño ultimately becomes the strongest on record, forecast to peak between 3.7 and 4 degrees warmer than average by December, according to the August model updates, those odds only become more pronounced. Winter season precipitation totals compared to the average during El Niño since 1982.NOAADuring the last Super El Niño, 2015-16, all of New England saw less snow than average, from 10 to 30 inches below average across Southern New England, and as much as 60 inches below average for the mountains up north. Snow totals from the average for the winter season 2015 to 2016.NERCCOne important wildcard: climate changeToday’s oceans are already running at or near record warmth, and global temperatures are forecast to challenge the hottest ever, especially the record set in 2024. On top of that, the atmosphere can hold roughly 7 percent more moisture for every degree Celsius of warming. These are important variables. Layer in a record-strength El Niño on top of an already warmer climate, and weather extremes can become amplified. Essentially, heavy rain events may become heavier. Mild stretches become even milder. And when Arctic air does arrive, the atmosphere will still have plenty of moisture available to fuel high-impact storms.In the end, we may be laying rock salt and using our umbrellas more than our shovels this winter. Here is the extended outlook for this winter, December 2026 through February 2027, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center:The winter outlook forecasts warmer than average temperatuers across New England, with a bit more precipitation south.CPCKen Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.
