Some Republicans are increasingly concerned that two key Senate races once considered critical to maintaining their majority are slipping out of their hands. More than a dozen interviews with campaign officials, senators and operatives acknowledge that North Carolina and Georgia appear less competitive than the party once anticipated and that decisions need to be made soon about whether to continue investing, even as party officials insist they will not back away from their candidates there. Republican senators like North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis said it was time for the party to make some tough decisions on spending. “Money is spent where we get Republicans elected,” Tillis said. “I want you to do that now. I mean, you don’t spend money just because you want to help someone.” Both Rep. Mike Collins, who is trying to unseat Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, and Michael Whatley, who is running against former Gov. Roy Cooper to replace Tillis, are trailing in the polls and facing questions about their campaigns. A GOP loss in North Carolina – a state President Donald Trump won three times – would give Democrats one of the four swings they need to take back the Senate. A Republican super PAC, Old North Action, reduced its advertising reserves in North Carolina by about a third last week, one of the clearest signs yet that the party may be losing confidence in the race. Whatley said this week that he feels “very comfortable” that he will have the money he needs. “I don’t know what the path is for Michael. I mean, I’ll just say that. Unless Cooper just completely stumbles,” a North Carolina Republican strategist, speaking on condition of anonymity to freely discuss the political environment, told CNN. Collins’ campaign recently made it clear to allies that she needs more help in Georgia. In a memo posted on its website and dated Monday, the campaign argued that 1 in 10 voters “is still in play” for Collins. The campaign said they are mostly voters who supported Trump in 2024 and are backing Rick Jackson for governor, who is in a tighter race with Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms. “They should vote for Mike Collins, and they haven’t yet, mainly because they don’t have a strong opinion about him,” the memo says, suggesting that more advertising spending could change that. But the party and its allies are having to spend big to shore up even redder seats, including an investment of more than $100 million in Texas. “We’re putting up a big wall around all of our candidates,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune. “There are headwinds we face in every race in the country.” Party leaders are sending signals that they are still committed to Georgia and North Carolina in particular. Thune headlined a fundraiser for Collins Thursday night in Atlanta along with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. And Trump and Vice President JD Vance recently visited North Carolina as part of their first stops for candidates after the Republican Party’s midterm convention. An NRSC spokesman, Nick Puglia, criticized Ossoff and Cooper in a statement for this article and promised that Republicans “will continue to work to expose their far-left records to permanently remove them.” NRSC Chairman Sen. Tim Scott on Thursday rejected any suggestion that the committee was deprioritizing Georgia and North Carolina. “Swill!” Scott wrote in X. His denial came after a closed-door meeting with Senate Republicans where he discussed the Senate map. An NRSC spokesperson said Scott spoke positively about Collins and Whatley, saying they were reducing their polling deficits. A crisis of trust… and some blame for Trump But trust is waning in other corners of the Republican Party. Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who hosted a fundraiser Monday for a group of Republican Senate candidates in other states, questioned the party’s decision to continue pouring money into races that may no longer be winnable. “Here we are, what? 40 days later? So I don’t think there’s much that can be done,” Cornyn said. “I think it will be a question of where resources should be deployed.” Cornyn’s fundraiser, which he spearheaded alongside former President George W. Bush, sent a clear message about his vision for the map. The guest list included incumbents and nominees from Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire and Minnesota. Collins and Whatley were not there. Notably, Cornyn also excluded Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general who defeated him in this year’s primary after winning a late endorsement from Trump. He said he focused his fundraising on the other states “because I think the money will go much further in those places.” Cornyn said he didn’t think Whatley could do anything to change his campaign at this point. “I think if Thom Tillis was on the list, things would be very different, but the president basically went after him, and now we have someone who’s not as well known and is struggling,” Cornyn said. Whatley painted a rosy picture of his campaign during a recent radio interview in which he was asked about outside funding. “We certainly need groups, like the Republican Party, to come out and support us … because the Democratic Party is going to send hundreds of millions of dollars to North Carolina,” Whatley said Thursday. “But I feel very confident that we are going to have the resources we need over the next 42 days to carry out this campaign and win.” Still, speaking with CNN, several Republican operatives in North Carolina questioned Whatley’s campaign strategy in this current environment, noting that campaign ads and events supporting the former North Carolina Republican Party and Republican National Committee chair have predominantly focused on crime. Meanwhile, Cooper, a two-term governor who has never lost a race, has focused his campaign on affordability and economic issues. “I thought the crime theme would be effective, that some of the bad things he did in office would come back to haunt Cooper. It should be a really good message. But for some reason it hasn’t gotten there yet,” the Republican strategist said. “But they’re not doing anything else. Even when the president came, he mainly insisted on crime. It’s not resonating, we should be doing something else.” Outside of Old North Action, Republican groups have mostly maintained their advertising reserves for the final weeks of the election, and the NRSC, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, has already spent $7.9 million in coordinated spending in North Carolina and $3.6 million in Georgia through the end of August. The optimistic argument for Republicans is that North Carolina has a reputation for deciding late. Trump focused heavily on the state in the final days of the 2024 election, sparking speculation that he was worried about it. He then won by 3 percentage points. “These polls look very close,” the North Carolina Republican strategist said of this year’s Senate race. “The good thing is that Republicans always outperform in the polls. But never to this point.” Meanwhile, Cooper’s campaign has long urged Democrats not to become complacent in the state. They were especially outspoken after a Supreme Court ruling lifted limits on coordinated spending with political parties, giving the Republican National Committee – which Whatley previously led – more flexibility to spend on elections. “A Democrat hasn’t won state federal office here in nearly two decades,” Cooper campaign manager Jeff Allen told CNN in a statement. “Whatley’s connections to the DC elite mean Republicans are going to spend whatever it takes to keep this seat.” In Georgia, Collins faces a stronger-than-expected incumbent, Ossoff, who is already generating buzz as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. (Ossoff has said he has “zero interest.”) Thune told CNN shortly before his trip to Atlanta that he still believes Collins can win. “I think part of it is that it’s a big state, it’s an expensive state, and … we have a House member running who just takes a lot of money to get noticed,” Thune said. “I think once you have the identifying name up there, you can litigate the contrast.” “It’s like any other place,” Thune added. “It’s a question of resources.” Thune’s fundraiser for Collins, which also featured Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, raised more than $400,000 for the candidate, according to a source familiar with the event. Like Cooper, Ossoff is also wary of Democrats declaring victory too soon. He told CNN earlier this week that he “doesn’t take anything for granted.” “We’re still seeing significant Republican super PAC activity,” Ossoff told CNN. “As far as national groups and all that, every day I run like I’m behind.”
