If you’re willing to lose a little sleep tonight, there might be a good reason to go outside and look north. The Northern Lights could appear in New England overnight, thanks to a coronal mass ejection (CME), essentially a cloud of magnetized solar material speeding past Earth. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center expects a moderate geomagnetic storm, a G2 level of 5, overnight Thursday into the pre-dawn hours of Friday. A geomagnetic storm warning of that level can typically extend Northern Lights visibility as far south as Massachusetts, although some forecasts have line of sight as far as New Jersey. A strong geomagnetic storm is never certain. It is always difficult to predict how strong the CME might be when it emerges from the Sun 91 and 93 million miles from Earth. “This CME is expected to be an indirect hit,” said Vincent Ledvina of Alaska, a doctor in space physics. student known as “the Aurora boy.” “The cloud is a partial halo aimed primarily north of the Earth, so the models have its flank sweeping over us rather than its core, and a flank impact may underperform or miss us entirely.” The University of Alaska shows a forecast line of sight (sharp green line) for the Northern Lights south of New Jersey on Thursday night. The sun is more active in producing these storms. Weather-wise, we won’t have to worry about cloudiness tonight because high pressure will keep the night almost completely clear. Moonlight should also not interfere as we are entering the new moon phase. According to the latest NOAA observations, the best opportunity may come in the early morning hours, approximately between 3 and 5:30 a.m. Forecasters expect geomagnetic activity to develop overnight, peaking near dawn. Again, forecasting space weather from millions of miles away isn’t easy, so it’s also worth checking out between 11pm and midnight. So if you’re motivated to catch something, find a dark place and get away from street lights and other types of light pollution. I don’t expect this to be a blockbuster event. The most likely scenario is that the geomagnetic storm remains on the weaker side and perhaps New Englanders will be able to see some brightness on the horizon to the north with the naked eye. Be sure to take some photos with your phone if you can’t see anything. Your cell phone can often pick up wavelengths and capture what you can’t see. The Northern Lights seen over the Sandwich Boardwalk in Massachusetts in November 2025. Paul Ruszala Tracking Aurora Chances in Real Time Of course, you can always track the Northern Lights in real time through an app or the NOAA site. Simply head to the Space Weather Prediction Center website to monitor Earth’s magnetic field. Below is an example of two main metrics to consider. The Bz (red) shows the orientation of the Earth’s magnetic field. The Bt (white) shows its strength, and the speed of the solar wind is tracked in yellow. Look for a jump in Bt intensity (white), a change to negative in Bz orientation (red), and a jump in solar wind speed (yellow), then go outside and look up. An example of a plot map that tracks geomagnetic storms. SWPCI mentioned it above, but there’s a big reason why I think it’s worth watching. 11-year activity cycle, meaning that as solar activity gradually decreases, these geomagnetic storms and opportunities to view the aurora should become less frequent in the coming years. That doesn’t mean the aurora will disappear, but the chances of frequent and widespread displays should decrease as we move away from the peak. The number of sunspots has decreased dramatically in 2026 after Solar Maximum was reached in late 2024. Solar Maximum occurs approximately every 11 years. SWPCS So if you’re on the fence, I recommend setting the alarm. Maybe you won’t get anything. You may see a faint green glow hugging the northern horizon. Or maybe the night sky surprises us and puts on a show. Either way, it’s probably worth losing a little sleep to find out. You can contact Ken Mahan at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.
