Six months after the war against Iran, the largest American oil companies have posted their biggest profits since 2022, selling less oil at much higher prices. But the conflict is also putting its long-standing investments in the Gulf at risk, exposing the industry’s difficult balance between wartime profits and growing geopolitical vulnerability for investors around the world. Since the war began on February 28, Brent crude has risen about 22 percent, from $72 to $88 a barrel. on a temporary sea route. Iran says the strait will not be fully reopened until the United States fulfills its commitments under an expired interim peace deal, leaving long-term management and security arrangements unresolved. In the absence of a lasting resolution, the disruption is likely to continue supporting higher energy prices and creating windfall profits for producers, despite putting regional assets and energy companies’ future projects at greater risk. Rahul Choudhary, vice president of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, an independent energy research firm, said the conflict has already reduced the amount of oil and gas American energy companies are extracting from the Gulf region. “Overall, we expect the participation of American companies in gas supply [from the region] will fall about 40 percent this year compared to last year [and] “The proportion of oil supplies will fall by 30 to 35 percent,” he told Al Jazeera. While higher commodity prices have helped offset the immediate financial impact, Choudhary said a prolonged disruption is likely to delay major projects and impact future growth plans for U.S. oil and gas companies with a presence in the region. Chevron has limited exposure to supply disruptions in the Arab Gulf, as the region accounts for just 5 percent of its total global production. On July 31, the group reported its highest quarterly profit in six years of $12 billion in adjusted earnings. Gasoline prices at a Chevron station in downtown Los Angeles, California, USA [File: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images/Reuters]ExxonMobil, by contrast, has been much more exposed to disruptions in the Middle East, where the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks on US-linked infrastructure in the region affected its operations in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which together account for 20 percent of its global upstream capital supply, according to Choudhary. “We already saw in the first semester [the first half of] In 2026, the company’s upstream profits fell by around $1.3 billion compared to the first half of 2025, due to lower upstream volumes from the Middle East. However, the shortfall was well covered by rising commodity prices,” Choudhary said. The contrast highlights a broader divide between US energy companies that have benefited from tighter global supply – and the corresponding rise in the price of oil – and those with assets, partnerships or operations in the Gulf that are at greater risk of disruptions caused by recent attacks on energy facilities. Where are US energy companies exposed in the Gulf? The Gulf energy sector is dominated by state-owned giants such as Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and QatarEnergy. Although these national oil and gas companies retain control over the region’s reserves and core infrastructure, US energy firms have carved out strategic positions throughout the region. US companies generate revenue through stakes in producing assets, joint ventures, production agreements, refining and petrochemical projects, as well as through long-term contracts to provide equipment, engineering and operational expertise. ExxonMobil has some of the largest US business interests in the Gulf, with several QatarEnergy LNG joint ventures linked to the North Field expansion. The field is the Qatari section of the North Field-South Pars structure, the world’s largest natural gas field, which Qatar shares with Iran, where it is known as South Pars. ExxonMobil also has interests in the United Arab Emirates’ Upper Zakum oil field along with ADNOC. Similarly, ConocoPhillips joined North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) with QatarEnergy in 2022 to increase export capacity in Ras Laffan. US group Occidental Petroleum has become one of the largest foreign producers in Oman, operating the Mukhaizna heavy oil field, the country’s largest producing oil field. smaller but strategically important footprint in the Gulf. Zone, including the Wafra field, said in July that it was exploring potential routes to transport Iraqi crude to export terminals in the Mediterranean, which could reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Where have attacks on energy facilities occurred? According to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), an independent conflict monitor registered in the United States, Iran and Iranian-backed groups in the region have carried out at least 172 attacks on non-military infrastructure in the six Council countries. Gulf Cooperation Organization (GCC) from the United States and Israel launched their war on February 28. Energy infrastructure has been the most affected: oil and gas facilities, along with power and desalination plants, account for almost half (48 percent) of all attacks against non-military targets. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain have suffered the highest number of successful attacks, the majority targeting oil and gas facilities. Kuwait’s Mina Abdullah and Mina al-Ahmadi, the Bahrain Petroleum Company oil refinery, ADNOC’s al-Ruwais industrial city and the Habshan gas complex have also been hit by several attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, most recently a drone attack on July 27 on the Abqaiq processing complex, one of the most critical nodes in Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure, which processes more than seven million barrels of oil per day. “remaining key targets for Iran because disruption of these sectors can increase economic pressure on Gulf states, while disruption of global energy supplies increases prices and pressure on the US during periods of escalation.” The largest LNG export hub, which hosts major joint ventures between QatarEnergy, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, was also the target of repeated attacks in March, at one point forcing the plant to halt production entirely. In June, an explosion as a result of a “technical malfunction” at Qatar’s Barzan gas project, where ExxonMobil has a stake, killed at least 13 people. [dealt to] companies [that are] part of LNG projects in Qatar – ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips,” Choudhary said. He added that ExxonMobil’s share of Qatar’s LNG supply is expected to fall significantly this year to around four million tonnes compared to 13 million tonnes last year, while ConocoPhillips has also seen reduced volumes to one million tonnes this year compared to 2.5 million tonnes last year. The attacks on Qatar’s infrastructure Qatar’s LNG trains could take years to repair, according to QatarEnergy, while delays to Qatar’s North Field expansion projects could slow planned supply growth. Choudhary added that the second most affected gas project has been the Shah gas project in the United Arab Emirates in which Occidental Petroleum has a 40 percent stake and where drone attacks in March caused a fire at the gas plant that halted operations. The conflict has also affected ExxonMobil’s oil interests in the United Arab Emirates, Choudhary said. 28 percent, fell between March and May when export routes were disrupted, limiting the ability to move crude oil offshore. Beyond the United Arab Emirates, the most significant impact on U.S. oilfield operations unfolded in Iraq. A drone attack hit the Sarsang oil field in March, followed by an explosion at one of its storage facilities in April, causing damage to the field. could support cash flows, but risks of prolonged conflict could threaten ExxonMobil’s $10 billion future growth in Upper Zakum and Qatar LNG could face delays, while ConocoPhillips remains exposed through investments in higher-risk markets, including its planned 42 percent stake in BP’s Kirkuk operations in Iraq. Oman respectively, the impact of the escalation will not be as severe as we have not seen significant disruptions in these countries,” Choudhary said. experience across the Gulf, supporting Saudi Aramco, ADNOC and QatarEnergy. For oilfield services companies, the outlook is mixed, according to Chinmayi Teggi, energy research analyst at Rystad Energy, a research group. While higher oil prices and energy security concerns could lift demand over time, near-term margins remain low. pressure due to higher logistics costs, supply chain disruptions and delayed projects. “For the Big Three (SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton), the conflict continues to weigh on regional revenues,” Teggi told Al Jazeera, adding that second-quarter revenues in the Middle East were down 8 to 10 percent compared to the previous year across all three companies, while higher oil prices meant revenues were higher in other geographies. Suspended production could help boost growth through 2027. Therefore, for US companies, the Gulf remains both an opportunity and a risk. “The impact on US companies will depend on the degree of exposure and the countries in which these companies are present,” Choudhary said The investments have secured US access to some of the world’s most important oil and LNG projects, but the conflict has exposed the risk of operating in a region where energy infrastructure has become increasingly vulnerable to conflict. geopolitical. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned Iran not to restrict access to the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that the waterway must remain open to global trade.
