Tel Aviv – After three years with their country at war on multiple fronts, Israelis will go to the polls on Tuesday in a hotly contested election that will shape their next government. Polls show it is an incredibly close race, and as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fights to keep his job, there is no guarantee of a quick and definitive outcome for him or his political opponents. Polls vary widely in their expected outcome. Right-wing pollsters give an advantage to the religious and right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu, while left-wing pollsters show an advantage for the so-called change bloc that opposes the incumbent. Most polls show that neither party is likely to win a decisive majority of the 120-seat Israeli parliament, the Knesset, which would allow it to unilaterally form a new government. The narrow margins mean the vote could end in a deadlock, which could lead to protracted negotiations across ideological lines, the formation of a minority government or even a rerun of the election. “It seems that an undecided outcome is the most likely outcome,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute. This will be the first election since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, which authorities have recognized as Israel’s most catastrophic security failure since the country’s founding in 1948. Israelis will go to the polls on Tuesday as their country continues to fight the ensuing multi-front war in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, and then two direct rounds of conflict with Iran and Netanyahu arguing for a third. In that context, there are some key issues that could determine the outcome of the election, even if it takes days or weeks to resolve. But first, here’s a look at the two main factions competing for votes. Netanyahu’s camp Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister and leader of the Likud party, is seeking to form another coalition similar to his current government, which is based on partnerships with Jewish religious and ultranationalist parties. He has two main arguments for voters: first, that only he can form a government without the support of Israel’s Arab parties, which he claims would be a danger to the country if they win enough seats to influence Israel’s involvement in its myriad conflicts. Netanyahu’s second argument to voters is that Israel’s campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and especially Iran are ongoing and that he needs more time to finish what his government started. President Trump offered a full endorsement of Netanyahu last week. He reiterated his administration’s strong support for the war the two men jointly launched against Iran nearly eight months ago, and warned that he may be unwilling to continue it if Netanyahu does not cling to power. “If Israel has the wrong leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, the United States will have to do this job ourselves, and I’m not willing to do that,” Trump said. A campaign sign depicting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump is seen in Tel Aviv, Israel, on October 26, 2026. JACK GUEZ/AFP/Getty Images Since that endorsement, Netanyahu has argued that only he can work with Trump to ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon, which many Israelis see as an existential threat. Netanyahu’s campaign slogan, which rhymes in Hebrew, is: “Either the right or Palestine, or the right or a nuclear bomb.” Over the weekend, Netanyahu posted on social media an AI-generated photo of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv, with a caption reiterating his insistence that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel. Netanyahu’s supporters see him as a top global leader. “Bibi can handle the whole world,” restaurant owner Benny Abraham told CBS News, using Netanyahu’s nickname. “Bibi is charismatic. He has a strong voice. The world loves him.” “He is the king of Israel,” Abraham added. Competing against Netanyahu is the “change bloc” (anyone but Netanyahu), a diverse group of Arab parties from the right, left and center that have a clear common denominator: they all want Netanyahu out of power. The favorite to lead the “change bloc,” should its various parties collectively win enough seats to form a coalition, is former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who heads the centrist Yashar party. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews while serving in the army in Gaza. He was part of the Israeli war cabinet for much of the first year of the Gaza war, working alongside Netanyahu. About half of his party’s candidates in Tuesday’s election are women, in stark contrast to Netanyahu’s male-dominated coalition. Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot greets supporters at a campaign rally on October 25, 2026 in Tel Aviv, Israel. Erik Marmor/Picture Alliance/Getty Images Eisenkot presents himself as a humble veteran who wants to reunite Israel after years of division for which he blames Netanyahu. Eisenkot on Monday responded to Netanyahu’s rhetoric about Iran posing a nuclear threat by accusing him of “relying on a campaign of scaremongering, lies and threats, including images of nuclear bombs in the heart of Tel Aviv.” “This time, it won’t work for him,” he said. Eisenkot’s key campaign promises include launching a state investigation into intelligence and security failures to prevent the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, something Netanyahu has so far blocked. Uzi Aharoni, 73, an engineer from Tel Aviv, told CBS News that he saw Eisenkot as the only real alternative to Netanyahu. “Eisenkot is not leftist, he is not right. He is upright and honest. He is the kind of leader who will take care of us, the people of Israel, and not himself or his corrupt family,” Aharoni said. The Arab vote and the ultra-Orthodox draft There are some factors that analysts believe could give either party a victory. One thing that polls cannot predict well in Israel is voter turnout. Past elections have shown that voters backing Netanyahu’s Likud party, and Arab-Israeli voters, vary the most in their enthusiasm for coming out on election days, so there could be room for surprises in turnout that significantly change the electoral math in favor of either side. Israeli Arabs, also known as Palestinian citizens of Israel, make up about 20% of Israel’s population. “The greater the Arab participation, the less likely it is that Netanyahu, within the current coalition, will be able to form another government,” Plesner said at the Israel Democracy Institute. More Arab voters will go to the polls this year because of their strong desire to prevent Netanyahu from forming another government with far-right allies, who have made their lives difficult over the past four years, Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in the predominantly Arab town of Baqa al Gharbiya, told CBS News. “The last four years were a real catastrophe, both socially and in terms of wars,” he said, adding that many Israeli Arabs feel that under Netanyahu, “Without hope, there is no future.” There are also two new parties running in these elections, and polls show each of them hovering around the threshold of support needed to win seats in the Knesset. Whether either party finally crosses that threshold could also tip the balance – in either direction – towards a new coalition government. Both parties are focused on challenging Netanyahu’s alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties by demanding that ultra-Orthodox Jewish citizens be formally included in Israel’s mandatory military service. Ultra-Orthodox Jewish leaders from the Breslev Hasidic community participate in a demonstration against conscription on October 12, 2026 in Netanya, Israel. Amir Levy/Getty Images It is a key issue that directly affects Netanyahu’s traditional support base and his coalition partners. Not all election results are clear and orderly. In the event that neither bloc obtains a clear majority in parliament, there are several paths forward toward a new Israeli government. One option is that individual parties or lawmakers could break their election promises and switch sides, something for which there is plenty of precedent in Israeli politics. It could be weeks of negotiations before a coalition is agreed upon. Another possibility is that the change bloc, if it obtains a significant proportion of the votes but not a majority, may attempt to form a minority government. To do this, the parties only need to win more seats collectively than the other side, even if it is not more than 50% of the 120 available. The Arab parties could give that plurality to the bloc of change by voting in favor of a minority government or simply abstaining and not voting against its formation. If there is a deadlock and neither side can form a coalition government, the country will have to hold new elections. There is also plenty of precedent for that scenario. Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five elections due to electoral deadlock. Plesner told CBS News that if all politicians running actually keep their campaign promises and refuse to switch sides in the event of a stalemate, “we’ll get to another election.” “I’m sure most politicians are not interested in that,” he added. Go deeper with The Free Press on:
