Israeli voters will go to the polls on Tuesday in an election with implications beyond the country’s borders. They are Israel’s first elections since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, which killed about 1,200 people and kidnapped more than 250. The Palestinian Health Ministry says Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza has killed more than 74,500 people. It is also the first vote since the United States and Israel began their joint war against Iran in February. How elections work in Israel Israelis vote by party rather than directly electing a prime minister, and the Knesset’s 120 seats are allocated through proportional representation. Parties must win at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter parliament. Since absolute majorities are rare, parties often form coalitions. The president asks a Knesset member (usually the leader best positioned to muster a 61-seat majority) to form a government. If repeated attempts fail, another election can be called. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (C) greets his supporters during a Likud Party meeting held as part of the campaign leading up to Israel’s legislative elections, at the King Solomon Hotel in Netanya on October 22, 2026. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP via Getty Images)Jack Guez | AFP | Getty Images Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads the right-wing Likud party, returned to power in late 2022 with a coalition that included far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. Since then, the alliance has been strained by disputes over a ceasefire in Gaza and the recruitment of ultra-Orthodox men. Recent polls put both Netanyahu’s bloc and the main opposition bloc, led by centrist former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, below the 61 seats needed to govern, making smaller parties potentially decisive. Arab parties are also in the race, but most of the major Jewish parties have ruled out alliances with them. More than 20% of Israel’s population is Arab, but Arab parties have rarely joined governing coalitions. Wartime Priorities The impending vote is effectively a referendum on Netanyahu, and the Hamas attacks have “transformed Israeli society,” according to László Csicsmann, a Middle East expert at Budapest’s Corvinus University in Hungary. Without a doubt, Netanyahu has worn down Israeli society,” he told CNBC. “The side that can best convince voters that it can protect the population will probably win. Other campaign issues include conscription, which is particularly sensitive for Jewish religious parties and Haredi communities.” Military service is mandatory for most Jewish, Druze and Circassian Israelis over the age of 18, while most other Israeli Arabs are exempt. The conscription of ultra-Orthodox men remains a major legal and political dispute. The economic cost of the war is also a major issue, Csicsmann said. “Due to the war and high spending military, economic issues are also dominating the political campaign,” he told CNBC, noting that Israel currently spends about 8% of its gross domestic product on military spending. “In addition, almost every family has a soldier or reservist who has been called up and left his job for months.” Defense and security are also at the forefront of the elections, said Daniel Schatz, a political scientist and former visiting scholar at Harvard, Stanford and Georgetown. “For Israel, what is at stake includes restoring trust in the government and deciding how military power translates into lasting security,” he told CNBC in an email. “For his neighbors and international partners, the question is whether the next government will be able to turn battlefield gains into viable political agreements.” Schatz said that while Netanyahu’s supporters see the current prime minister as “an experienced leader facing formidable threats,” his critics see failures in preparedness, accountability and strategic direction. In September, book excerpts published by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz alleged that Netanyahu had been warned that Hamas was planning a major offensive about a week before the Oct. 7 attacks. Netanyahu called those claims an “absolute lie” and reportedly filed a defamation lawsuit against the newspaper. But Schatz told CNBC that any lingering dissatisfaction with Netanyahu should not be confused with support for the left. “Some voters want different leadership precisely because they believe it would provide security more effectively,” he said. change of prime minister and ruling coalition will bring about a dramatic shift in Israel’s stance on Palestinian statehood, Iran and other foreign policy issues. Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party presents a manifesto promising “security without compromise,” along with promises to maintain a free economy and financial markets and an attempt to strengthen “Israel as a regional and technological power.” national security, including a proposed policy to integrate Arab and ultra-Orthodox communities into conscription. Palestine, Iran and international relations Farzan Sabet, senior analyst at the Eurasia Group think tank, told CNBC that the main blocs vying for power are “quite tough on security” and would have comparable policies in key areas such as confronting Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. But he added that a new coalition government made up mainly of parties from the anti-Netanyahu bloc. “would probably prefer to review Israeli strategy toward Tehran” before undertaking any major escalation for possible new attacks on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms, while Iran’s army chief has said he is ready for an “asymmetric war.” He said a government composed primarily of the anti-Netanyahu bloc would likely take fewer actions in the West Bank, crack down on settler violence against Palestinians there and prevent the annexation of Palestinian lands. The West Bank is a Palestinian territory west of the Jordan River where Israeli settlements have been expanding for decades. In recent years, violence and the forced displacement of Palestinians by settlers has drawn condemnation from lawmakers. in the United States and other countries. But Sabet told CNBC: “While the opposition to Netanyahu has an advantage in the latest Israeli election polls, this will be a close race, with several possible outcomes.”
