Hurricane Nolo continues to strengthen and is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend, likely making it the strongest storm to pass so close to the Big Island since the late 1950s. This will be Hawaii’s fourth tropical system of the 2026 hurricane season, and is once again forecast to bring heavy rain, life-threatening flooding, and gusty winds. Moving on Nolo is currently a Category 1 hurricane and its outer bands are beginning to approach the Big Island. The storm is centered about 240 miles south of the Big Island and is moving north at 5 mph. Conditions will deteriorate throughout the day on Friday and will continue to worsen through the weekend. Winds are already gusting to 30 mph on the southern part of the Big Island. Here are the current alerts and warnings in effect, as seen on the map below: Get more of our news on Google Set The Weather Company as a ‘Preferred Source’ for faster access to the news you value. Hurricane Watch for Big Island Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island Tropical Storm Watch for Maui What’s the forecast? Nolo will continue its journey north throughout the day on Friday, before making a sharp turn westward as we approach Saturday. The storm will continue to strengthen, reaching major hurricane status (at least Category 3) by the weekend. The current forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center is shown below. (MORE: What a forecast cone really means) On Thursday, models dragged Nolo’s track farther south, leaving the island chain outside the cone of uncertainty — the storm’s potential track. If this trend continues, more of the most severe impacts could remain offshore. But storms tend to wobble in the cone of uncertainty, so if the storm turns westward later, there could be increased winds as the storm moves closer to the islands. A similar event occurred with Hurricane Lowell a couple of weeks ago, when the storm approached the Western Hawaiian Islands on its closest pass, bringing heavier rain and winds. The most important conclusion is this: even if the Big Island remains outside the cone of uncertainty, impacts will continue to occur well beyond the cone. At least parts of the main islands will suffer the triple threat of rain, wind and waves. This will happen regardless of how close the center of Nolo is to the Big Island and whether or not it ever makes landfall. Potential ImpactsFlood RainAs the storm passes south of the islands, it is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe. Flood alerts remain in force. Locally heavy rain on the outer bands of Nolo could fall well before the storm moves closer. Here are the maximum rainfall forecasts from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. These maximum totals are most possible on the mountain slopes: Parts of the Big Island: Up to 35 inches Parts of Maui: Up to 15 inches Rest of the islands: Up to 6 inches This could lead to potentially catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding, as well as landslides on the Big Island and Maui, according to the National Hurricane Center. The Big Island and parts of Maui County were severely affected by flooding, mudslides and high winds caused by Hurricane Lala in mid-August, and power was recently restored in some locations. WindsThe map below shows the probability of at least tropical storm force winds (39 mph or greater) from Nolo. Given the forecast track, the highest probability of winds capable of causing at least some tree damage and power outages is expected in the southern part of the Big Island. As mentioned above, we cannot rule out a threat of gale-force winds for parts of the Big Island, depending on how close the center is to Nolo. These winds can cause more severe damage to homes and businesses. Additionally, wind gusts will likely be stronger both atop and downwind of mountain slopes across the island chain. Nolo’s maximum wind potential for Hawaii Coastal flooding, high surf Larger storm surges are expected to arrive from the storm on Friday, causing dangerous surf and rip currents. Nolo’s approach will also bring a threat of coastal flooding to parts of the Big Island. A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is also likely around the Big Island. The Big Island’s strongest hurricane in decades? Only one other major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) has hit within 150 miles of the Big Island, according to NOAA’s hurricane database. That was Hurricane Dot of August 1959, which hit Kauai after brushing south of the Big Island. Therefore, Nolo could be the strongest hurricane impact on the Big Island in 67 years. Fourth Potential Flood Event This system will become the fourth to at least graze Hawaii, causing flooding and winds across most of the state. We first had Hurricane Lala in mid-August, whose eyewall grazed the southern tip of the Big Island. Torrential rain and gusty winds caused power outages to skyrocket. (MORE: Lala Recap) Next up was Tropical Storm Moke, which moved farther south than Lala but still pummeled parts of the Big Island with rain and winds from its outer bands. Moke’s impacts were less significant, but flooding still occurred because the ground was still saturated by Lala. Then came Hurricane Lowell, a powerful hurricane that reached Category 5 at its peak. The storm weakened before reaching its closest point, but battered the western islands with wind, rain and waves. (MORE: Lowell Summary) Zombie Storm This system originally formed as Tropical Depression Fifteen-E on September 13 southeast of Hawaii. The system then failed as it traveled westward, moving into strong wind shear that altered its structure. But the system continued its journey westward and has now moved to areas with less shear, allowing it to have a second life.
