In July, the Pew Research Center found that, for the first time in about two decades of global surveys, the world now views China more favorably than the United States. The sentiment was not universal, but in 25 of the 36 countries surveyed this year, the percentage of respondents giving favorable ratings to China exceeded that of the United States, including several close US allies. Some analysts have taken these findings as confirmation that the golden era of American soft power is over and China is on the rise. According to them, Trump’s policies on tariffs, aid and allies have eroded the United States’ position, opening the door for people around the world to switch allegiance to China. But this interpretation, however convenient, deserves further scrutiny. A closer look at the data reveals that although global opinion of the United States has indeed plummeted and opinion of China has risen since 2022, most of the world still prefers the United States as an economic partner, including most countries that now view China more positively. This is a fundamental distinction, since associations and economic interests tend to drive national policies. In fact, it indicates that something more nuanced is happening than simply the end of American hegemony and an imminent era of Chinese global supremacy. The world’s increasingly pro-Chinese attitude is not meaningless. The fact that more and more people think more highly of Beijing than of Washington could eventually prove important as Beijing seeks to strengthen its soft power. For now, however, what the numbers actually show is a world that is adapting to the new reality of great power competition, feeling forced to choose a side without having the luxury of liking it. STILL AT THE TOP Favorability is, in essence, a feeling. When people are asked to say how favorably they view something, they are actually asked if they like it and how much they like it, and little else. Pew’s favorability question also asked only whether respondents had a positive or negative impression of China and the United States, not whether they liked one more than the other. Still, Beijing clearly emerged victorious on these questions. Favorable views of the United States fell significantly in 15 of the 24 countries surveyed in both 2025 and 2026. Additionally, in several U.S.-allied countries, including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, favorability ratings are now at or near their lowest level since Pew began surveys in 2002. In contrast, China’s image has consistently improved in several Western countries. The percentage of Italian respondents with a favorable opinion of China, for example, rose from 31 percent in 2022 to 51 percent in 2026. In Spain, preference for China rose from 37 percent in 2025 to 54 percent in 2026. Media and observers have fixated on these numbers, but the same Pew survey asks another, more consequential question: “Is it more important for your country to have strong economic ties with China? China or with the United States? This message forces respondents to weigh the two powers against each other and choose one. Crucially, it asks them to consider not only how they feel about each country, but also which one they would prefer to work with. In 2025, the latest year for which individual-level country-by-country data is available, more respondents in 20 of 24 countries chose economic ties with the United States over ties with China. In seven of those 20 countries, the answers to the two questions diverged. More respondents in Canada, France, Greece, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and Turkey rated China more favorably than the United States, but more people chose economic ties with the United States over China, sometimes by wide margins. In Sweden, for example, respondents preferred economic ties with the United States over economic ties with China by 48 percentage points. Turkish respondents rated China 13 percentage points more favorably than the United States, but still preferred economic ties with the United States by ten percentage points. As the only country that favors economic ties with China but views the United States more favorably, Australia is an outlier. This isn’t a huge surprise given China is already the country’s biggest export destination, accounting for 30 per cent of everything Australia sells to the world. But it is noteworthy that half of Australians believe China is the country that most threatens Australia, and a third believe the United States is Australia’s most important ally, compared to seven per cent who believe China is. However, when asked whether Australia’s economy should have closer ties with China or the United States, 54 per cent chose China, compared to 43 per cent who chose the United States. Favorability, it seems, cannot adequately capture the nuances of public opinion about the two countries, much less divine a shift in the balance of soft power. Globally, individual respondents who preferred China as an economic partner appear to have done so because they believe China is already the world’s leading economic power. Sixty percent of global respondents who preferred economic ties with China believed the same, compared to 20 percent who think the United States is the world’s leading economic power. The same pattern applies to the United States: About 58 percent of people who prefer economic ties with the United States think it is the global economic hegemon, while 26 percent believe China is. This makes intuitive sense: people want to associate with whoever they think is the winner. But the Pew data also suggests that people still want to partner with Washington on economic issues, because many still say they want to do so even when they don’t believe it is the winner. Of those who believe the United States still leads the world economy, 75 percent chose economic ties with the United States, compared to just 15 percent who chose a closer economic relationship with China. However, among those who believe China has taken the lead, 49 percent chose China and a notable 38 percent still chose the United States. THOSE WHO SIT ON THE FENCE Not everyone feels forced to choose between the United States and China. Across the 24 countries surveyed in 2025, about one in nine respondents preferred their country to maintain strong economic ties with both powers rather than supporting one over the other. In some countries, this group of undecided people is too large to ignore. 39 percent of Nigerians (a plurality of respondents) refused to choose between Washington and Beijing. So did 32 percent of Israelis, 27 percent of Hungarians, 23 percent of Germans and 20 percent of Turks. Across all countries, 16 percent of those who named the United States as their country’s most important ally but believed China now leads the world economy chose not to choose a single most important economic partner, compared with 11 percent of all other respondents. That’s not to say that undecided publics will remain undecided as competition between the United States and China intensifies. They may still be prompted to commit to one side if it seems like a reliable protector against a clear danger. For Washington, this is still good news. In 20 of the 24 countries surveyed, more people named the United States than China as their country’s most important ally. China leads only in Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa and Türkiye. In no country did a majority name China, while the United States obtained majorities in five countries. That gap is Beijing’s weakness and Washington’s remaining advantage. The Trump administration’s faltering commitment to its allies threatens to undermine it. The same could be said for the common (and incorrect) belief that China has already won the economic race. By most measures, the U.S. economy remains the largest and most productive in the world. In the eyes of the rest of the world, however, every new trade war and break with an ally risks reinforcing the belief that the American economy is headed in the wrong direction. For now, however, fears that public opinion has shifted toward China are overblown. When forced to choose, most of the world still prefers to work with Washington, and most of those who choose Beijing are probably betting on predictions about its economic rise. Beijing, then, should not confuse favorability with partnership. And Washington must keep America’s markets open and its commitments credible before the belief that the country’s economic future is behind it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
