Tehran, Iran – Decision makers in Iran are now considering the implications of removing Vice President JD Vance from the Iran file to focus on domestic issues, which analysts say could increase the chances of conflict between the two sides. Vance has been the lead U.S. negotiator in talks with Iran, but U.S. President Donald Trump told him to turn his attention to alleged Democratic “corruption,” according to a Trump post on Truth Social on Thursday. He added that a deal with Iran was no longer a priority for the government. The vice president is believed to be viewed by Tehran as one of the most pragmatic figures in the Trump administration since the United States and Israel launched their surprise war against Iran on February 28. Nasser Hadian, a professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, said that by assigning Vance to the alleged domestic corruption case, Trump was mainly signaling a confrontation with Democrats after his But the move may also serve Israel, which is reportedly eager for Trump to launch new attacks on Iran, after Vance blamed the war for the Republicans’ humiliating defeat in the midterm elections. “Another signal is to Iran, essentially saying that reaching a deal now is not a priority, and that the person who is known to have a relatively softer stance on Iran was redirected to other issues,” Hadian said. Negotiator Vance is believed to have The vice president favored a negotiated resolution to the war, due to its increasing economic costs to American citizens and his opposition to the war suggested in opinion polls. The vice president was backed by Trump envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff when he negotiated the now-defunct memorandum of understanding with Iran in June, which briefly halted the war and resumed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. But he also recognized the cost of all-out war and seeks to win through increasing economic pressure and the isolation of all Iranians. US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance look on during a Veterans Day ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, US, on November 11, 2026. [File: Kylie Cooper/Reuters]Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has faced an impeachment vote due to his role in the war, and Central Command chief Brad Cooper reportedly favor renewed military action against Iran. Vance wrote a letter to Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei in late October, as regional mediators redoubled their efforts to bridge gaps between the two sides. Rezaei initially described the tone of the letter as positive, but last week addressed claims of progress and a possible direct meeting with Vance as “fake news about imaginary talks.” “You lost the war and the election. Vance has conceded, Rubio is headed for the exit, Hegseth is about to be fired, and the commander of CENTCOM is now a podcaster.” wrote in X at that time. ‘With or without Vance’ Mediated contacts between the two sides are ongoing, but no progress is expected. Tehran demands seven conditions and a clear sequence of concessions to end the war, but this seems unacceptable to the United States. Mohammad Saleh Sedghian, director of the Arab Center for Iranian Studies, noted that Trump has repeatedly highlighted alleged divisions within the Iranian negotiating team. But he said Iranian officials were also questioning the reliability of another possible deal with Washington. “Even if you can imagine Mr. Rezaei sitting down with Mr. Vance and reaching a deal? What guarantee is there that Trump will enforce it?” he told Al Jazeera. The atmosphere of mistrust between the two sides is also complicating prospects for a deal, he added. This means that the current US siege of Iran and tough sanctions will continue, something that could cost Iran more than a relatively shorter military conflict with Washington, he added. “The blockade and disruptions are significantly raising costs for the Iranian people. The current state of no war and no negotiated resolution is very dangerous,” Sedghian said. Iran’s reformist newspaper Shargh argued this week that Vance’s role vis-à-vis Iran is unresolved rather than definitively over, but also said the conflict could escalate further. The Farhikhtegan newspaper disputed the description of Vance as a genuinely pacifist, arguing that diplomacy, military force and economic pressure ultimately serve a common goal for the US in trying to force Iran to accept its conditions. For now, the two sides continue to fight for control in the Strait of Hormuz, with retaliatory attacks against shipping and military installations. naval mines or being hit by shells after attempting “unauthorized” routes in the critical waterway. The latest weekly UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) report on Friday reported eight incidents in and around the strait, mainly on the southern route near Oman. UKMTO also recorded 139 departures and 169 inbound transits through the strait during the week, around 65 per cent below pre-conflict levels. tolerate the current situation indefinitely. “The authorities will go after their warships, their ships or their military bases,” he added. “The stronger the blockade becomes, including through maritime pressure and disruptions to land borders and air travel, the more likely war becomes.” But Trump’s sidelining of Vance on the Iran issue will not radically alter the current situation, Hadian said, as Washington believes its economic pressure tactic on Tehran may force him to make concessions. “The United States would have done this with or without Vance, and I believe it will continue to do so,” he said.
