The Child ‘Godzilla’ is here and he is already breaking records that the world would have preferred not to be broken. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have already surpassed the highest recorded during any previous El Niño, and the climate phenomenon is still strengthening. Between June 2026 and February 2027, experts estimate that the extreme heat associated with it could contribute to 451,000 additional deaths. The forecast has raised alarm bells among weather agencies, health authorities and governments around the world, including an unprecedented mobilization by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to prepare for the extreme weather ahead. “El Niño is growing before our eyes,” outgoing UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in early September. “The planet is in uncharted waters and those waters are warming.” But even as governments prepare for what could be a devastating year of extreme weather, experts say much can still be done to limit the damage, both now and in the future. Why is this El Niño so worrying? Records aside, many worry about what an El Niño of this strength could mean for climate around the world in the coming months. An El Niño event begins in the Pacific, but its effects can be felt around the world. When waters near the equator become unusually warm, they release heat into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures and changing where rain falls. With ocean temperatures already at record levels, this El Niño could bring more intense heat, droughts and heavy rain to vulnerable regions and push global temperatures to new highs, earning it the nicknames ‘Godzilla’ and ‘Super’ El Niño. Some of those effects are already being felt. India has already experienced below-normal monsoon rainfall, while southern Africa faces a higher risk of drought. Although Europe is unlikely to experience the most severe direct effects, El Niño can influence winter weather, and droughts or crop failures elsewhere can disrupt the supply of imported food to Europe. The threat is already prompting governments around the world to act. This month, California Governor Gavin Newsom preemptively declared a state of emergency to prepare for possible flooding, mudslides, coastal erosion and powerful winter storms. How can we prepare for an inevitable El Niño? Despite all the preparations we make, one thing remains inevitable: El Niño is a natural phenomenon. But even if we can’t avoid it, the forecasts give us months to prepare. “The key is to manage water and prepare for changes in where and when precipitation occurs,” says Davide Faranda, research director at France’s National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) and lead author on the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For example, he explains, governments can store and distribute water more carefully, better control how reservoirs and groundwater are used, adjust agricultural schedules and irrigation practices, and prepare communities for droughts or floods. The FAO has also offered concrete advice. Farmers, FAO officials say, can reduce losses by changing planting dates, irrigating at cooler times of day, storing water before droughts and taking steps to protect their crops and livestock from extreme heat. Some governments have stepped up financial support. The UK has pledged up to £15 million (€17 million) to help vulnerable countries prepare for this El Niño. The money will fund measures ranging from vaccinating livestock before droughts to shoring up homes before floods and providing cash to farmers before crops fail. Climate action could limit future damage Most El Niño events increase global average temperatures by about 0.2°C. While this is enough to trigger extreme weather conditions across the Global South, it is a fraction of the additional warming caused by climate change. The burning of fossil fuels has raised the global average surface temperature by 1.3°C to 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, paving the way for Europe’s scorching summer that triggered droughts and massive wildfires. The impacts of El Niño are therefore compounded by an already warming world. That’s why 2025 was the third warmest year on record (warmer than the El Niño year of 2016) despite the natural formation of a La Niña event. Recent research suggests that climate change is also driving El Niño. A study published in August found that El Niño is 36 percent stronger than before the industrial era, a trend researchers link to human-caused warming. If climate change is making El Niño stronger, then preparation won’t go as far. But Faranda says reducing emissions can make a big difference in the long term. A hotter planet means more extreme heat, more pressure on water supplies and, in some places, more precipitation. Reducing emissions would not stop the natural climate cycle that leads to El Niño, he explains, but it would reduce the human-caused warming that is exacerbating those threats. That means the damage is not completely out of our control. “We can’t eliminate El Niño through climate mitigation,” says Faranda, “but we can reduce the extent to which climate change exacerbates its consequences.”
