Oil and gas prices rose on Monday after an “energy ceasefire” announced by President Donald Trump on Sunday failed to gain traction. Brent crude oil jumped 2% to nearly $108 a barrel and US crude oil rose more than 2% to around $94. Meanwhile, diesel futures completely erased a small decline they experienced last week. With the Nov. 3 midterm elections just weeks away, price pressures are mounting. Republicans face a steep climb to maintain their majorities in Congress, and voters across the country cite high gas prices as a key issue affecting their votes. The national average price of diesel fuel on Monday was $6.26 per gallon, nearly 80% higher than at the beginning of the year, according to AAA data. Monday’s price increase came less than 24 hours after Trump declared that a ceasefire had been agreed upon. “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASE FIRE in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Both sides have agreed. Do not violate it!” Trump wrote in Truth Social. Shortly after the president’s release, Russia renewed attacks on Ukrainian energy assets. When asked by reporters on Monday why neither the Kremlin nor kyiv had firmly committed to their ceasefire, Trump indicated that when he made the announcement on Sunday he knew he did not yet have a commitment from either side. “They agreed, you know why? Because I said, ‘You agree,'” Trump told reporters at the White House. As for getting Russian President Vladimir Putin to commit, Trump said, “Let’s see what happens.” Asked if he knew Russia had already violated the ceasefire Trump had announced, the president responded, “I’m not sure about that,” before stating that there had been “violations on both sides.” Ceasefire déjà vu President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine learned about Trump’s ceasefire through media reports and received no prior warning. He reiterated his position that Ukraine was open to an agreement not to attack enemy energy infrastructure as long as Moscow also agreed to it. Meanwhile, Russia continued “glider bomb attacks and attacks on our energy infrastructure,” Zelenskyy said Monday, noting that a power plant in Kharkiv had recently been attacked. “Ukraine has proposed many de-escalation measures. Putin had an answer for all of them: ‘nyet,'” Zelenskyy said, using the Russian word for “no.” On Monday, the Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied reaching an agreement. Trump’s Sunday announcement closely mirrored a similar post he made in September, when he announced that “Ukraine has agreed not to meet Russian energy goals. Russia has agreed to do the same!” There too, Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s participation depended on Russia’s agreement to comply, which never came. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian attacks on each other’s energy assets slowed in September. Trump’s deal with Putin The dubious ceasefire Trump declared over the weekend followed a surprise announcement Friday in which the president said Russia would supply millions of barrels of diesel “to the U.S. and global market.” The announcement came after a phone call Friday between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that reportedly lasted more than an hour. Trump said the deal with Putin would “immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the U.S. and global markets.” That would translate to about 2.25 million barrels of diesel, or less diesel than the United States uses in just one day. Further details and logistics of Russia’s plan had yet to be announced Monday. In addition to the deal with Russia, Trump has pressed G7 allies to release more diesel fuel supplies in recent days and lifted domestic restrictions on a variety of off-road diesels. To clear a legal path for the diesel deal, the Treasury Department announced a six-month suspension of fuel sanctions imposed on the Kremlin in 2022 for its illegal invasion of Ukraine. the agreement and the United States’ decision to unilaterally ease sanctions on Russia. Trump defended the deal on Monday, calling it “the right choice for the American people.” Trump also said there would be more diesel fuel available “in a short period of time” if Russian refineries could produce it. Questions over Russia’s capacity However, experts are highly skeptical that there will be a significant resumption of Russian diesel exports any time soon. Due to Ukrainian attacks inside Russia, refineries that produce oil, gas and diesel have been severely damaged. “Reported gasoline production is down 20% compared to 2025 levels, while diesel production is estimated to have fallen almost 30%, prompting the government to restrict fuel exports to protect domestic supplies,” International Energy Agency analysts wrote in a September report. For weeks, Trump has focused on the price of diesel fuel, which began to rise as a result of the war against Iran that the United States and Israel launched in February. In July, escalations in the war between Russia and Ukraine began to increase pressure on diesel prices. As Ukrainian drones systematically attacked Russian energy assets, the Kremlin responded by restricting diesel exports in order to preserve its supply for domestic use. Until then, Russia had been one of the world’s leading exporters of refined petroleum products, including diesel fuel. Russia said on Friday it would lift some of its export restrictions to accommodate the deal with Trump. But it was unclear how quickly it would happen.
