Washington, DC – Democrats have the momentum; Republicans are increasing on defense and cash. That narrative has emerged ahead of the US midterm elections in November, as races across the country enter their final stretch. Recommended Stories list of 3 articlesend list With control of the US House of Representatives and Senate at stake, Democrats enter October with a surprisingly optimistic outlook as more congressional seats are seen to be up for grabs. Meanwhile, Republicans appear to be doing damage control, pouring millions of dollars into races once considered safe. The party’s standard-bearer, President Donald Trump, who has embraced the notion that the election is a referendum on his leadership, enters the final month with staggeringly low approval ratings. The most recent Associated Press-NORC poll, released Thursday, showed Trump with 31 percent approval, the lowest during either of his two terms. Only 26 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, falling two points below his predecessor, former President Joe Biden’s lowest rating on the issue. Polls continue to show that voters rank the economy as their top issue, with issues such as gasoline prices, raised by the US-Israel war with Iran, dominating their concerns. Immigration and corruption also feature regularly. “Broadly speaking, Americans are disappointed, bordering on angry, that President Trump has not delivered on major promises he made when he won re-election,” according to Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Center for Ethics and Public Policy in Washington, DC. The 435-member Republican chamber would give the party renewed legislative power to influence Trump while launching investigations into his administration’s dealings. Top Democrats have already signaled that investigations into Trump’s family businesses would be their top priorities. Two nonpartisan election prediction authorities, the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball, have recently assessed that the probability of Democrats winning the House has only increased. “shooting”. One of those changes occurred in a Texas border district represented by Republican Mónica De La Cruz. Her district was emblematic of a broader Latino swing toward Trump in 2024. Cook, once considered ahead of her rival, Democrat Bobby Pulido, now calls her race a “disagreement.” In total, the Political Analysis Clearinghouse now predicts that Democrats are on track to gain 5 to 15 House seats. at the Sabato Crystal Ball. Once considered a pipe dream for Democrats, who need a net gain of at least four seats to gain a slim majority, the 100-member chamber has moved into more comfortable striking distance. Unlike the House, where all seats are up for re-election, only 35 Senate seats are up for grabs this cycle, creating a much narrower path to control. The Republican mood is getting worse,” Kondik said, adding that “the Senate appears to be getting more and more competitive as the cycle goes on.” To be sure, the quality of polls can vary across the country, and Kondik cautioned that gauging the political temperature of the Midwest has been particularly difficult for pollsters. Still, in North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to defeat former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley in the race for a Senate seat currently held by Republicans. Major conservative donors have already begun diverting funds from the race. Polls have consistently shown Democrats leading in three other races for seats currently held by Republicans: Democrat James Talarico against Republican Ken Paxton in Texas; Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown against incumbent Republican Sen. John Husted in Ohio; and Democrat Mary Peltola against Republican Dan Sullivan in Alaska. Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson remain separated by less than a point, according to Real Clear Politics poll averages. In total, at least $4 billion had been spent on midterm ad buys for governors and Congress, putting the race on track to become “perhaps the most expensive midterm on record,” according to Michael Franz, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. Republicans entered September with a considerable financial lead. The Republican National Committee had $125.6 million on hand, with the Democratic National Committee far behind with $16.9 million and $17.6 million in debt. When accounting for the three major committees associated with both groups, the GOP had $233.4 million in cash, according to a CNBC analysis, while the Democratic Party had $130.4 million. Trip Yang, a New York City-based Democratic strategist, told Al Jazeera that spending can be done. use to help boost a candidate’s name recognition or knock down a competitor. According to AdImpact, Republicans and their allies would spend $888 million on advertising from mid-September to Election Day, while Democrats and their supporters would spend $666 million. toxic, you try to spend your hundreds of millions of dollars attacking Democrats to make it more of a food fight,” he said. A New York Times analysis estimated that at least $1 billion had been invested in so-called “dark money” in the midterm elections by the end of August. The term refers to spending in which the identity of the donor is protected, typically through nonprofit and shell company donations to Super PACs. Industry groups, including those supporting cryptocurrencies, intelligence artificial and online betting companies, are the biggest spenders in key races, although their support tends to transcend partisan lines. Trump, meanwhile, has pledged to spend between $400 million and $500 million from his MAGA Inc Super PAC, although he has so far spent about $15 million to support Paxton’s Senate bid in Texas. Ad bookings for Paxton far surpassed Talarico in September, according to AdImpact data analyzed. by NPR, with $94 million spent compared to $30 million to support the Democrat. The Trump Factor Trump has vowed to spend the final days before the election in non-stop campaign mode, after urging his supporters during his Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, to “vote like you’re on the ballot.” voters who are already loyal to the party, according to conservative analyst Olsen. “But the Republican problem is a problem of persuasion with the people in the middle,” Olsen said.[Trump’s campaigning] might help with some participation…but their real problem is persuasion, and it’s not something that’s going to help in the slightest.” Polls have spelled trouble for Republicans when it comes to influencing independents, with a Sept. 23 PBS News/NPR/Marist poll showing unaffiliated voters leaning Democratic at 57 percent compared to 32 percent leaning Republican. Gubernatorial candidate Mike Mazzei at the Events Center Choctaw in Durant, Oklahoma, USA, October 1, 2026. [Nick Oxford/Reuters]The scenario has created a dilemma for some of the leading Republican candidates about whether to break with the president on his most controversial actions, according to Lee Miringoff, director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Marist University. Senate candidates Ashley Hinson in Iowa, Jon Husted in Ohio and Mike Rogers in Michigan recently highlighted the war with Iran between themselves and Trump. Florida. Trump, in turn, reposted a message on social media calling Salazar a “traitor.” “You need to have, you know, something else going for you other than supporting Trump,” Miringoff said. “Some Republicans are starting to act because they are worried.” What can change? Achieving a large-scale change in public opinion remains a difficult task for Republicans in the final stretch of the race. stake. More recently, during an interview with Time magazine, he refused to commit to not invoking the Insurrection Act or declaring a state of emergency around the vote. Miringoff said he believed “the potential for more than just marginal change is there,” while assessing that some Democratic candidates have struggled to present clear visions beyond opposition to Trump. “The result is not concretely formed,” he said, “to the extent that there will still be a lot of money spent.” Analyst Olsen saw that there is less room for maneuver for the party. “Republicans have the time and resources to change the outcome with respect to some close Senate races,” Olsen said. “But to change direction, they would need something that was apocal.”
