“Bitcoin now belongs to a global asset class with institutional ownership. Spot ETFs have created a regulated channel for investment. Derivatives markets have changed the way risk is transferred. The 2,000%+ rally that followed the 2012 sequence cannot become a reasonable expectation for 2026,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based exchange Giottus, commenting on the data. He explained that the current market structure is different and is driven by institutional capital. “The real change is therefore one of market structure. Bitcoin’s rise in 2012 began in a market that could be transformed by a small group of buyers. The case in 2026 depends on whether large pools of capital continue to be allocated after the easiest profits have been made,” he noted. Institutions have returned to the cryptocurrency market, if US-listed spot ETFs are a substitute. These funds have attracted more than $5.5 billion in investor money since August, according to data source SoSoValue. “The durability of those assignments matters more,” Subburaj said. History often rhymes Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes, referring to the odd pattern and four-year cycles. “We’re always looking for patterns, and Bitcoin, for better or worse, has continued to adhere to the 4-year cycle. Sometimes a little late, sometimes early, so it’s not surprising that we see certain patterns repeating themselves.” and again (to some extent, of course),” Sondergaard told CoinDesk.
