Follow Us Add us as a preferred source on Google Newsletter Subscribe to our newsletter This year marks a rather auspicious anniversary for meteorite observers. Sixty years ago, one of the most stupendous Leonid meteor displays lit up the predawn skies over the central and western U.S. So what will the Leonids of 2026 bring us? And what might they bring in the years to come? The Leonid meteor shower is one of the most famous annual “shooting star” displays of the year. The mere mention of the Leonids often provokes mental images of a sky full of shooting stars falling like rain. In fact, these types of meteor storms have occurred with the Leonids, such as in 1833 and 1966, when meteor speeds of tens of thousands per hour were observed. In more recent years, notably 1999, 2001, and 2002, minor Leonid displays of up to “only” a few thousand meteors per hour occurred. Unfortunately, that’s not likely to be the case this year. In fact, comparatively speaking, this will be a difficult year for the Leonids, mainly due to the expected lack of significant activity. Although the Leonids are one of the most famous annual meteorite displays, this year they are not likely to be very productive. They are likely to be quite faint and there will probably be long periods when not a single Leonid will be seen. I’ll explain why in a moment. First, let’s discover the lineage of this rain. What causes the Leonids? The Leonids are so called because the shower’s radiant point, from which the meteors appear to unfold, lies within the constellation of Leo the Lion, the backward question-mark pattern of stars known as “The Sickle.” The meteors are caused by Comet Tempel-Tuttle, which travels through the inner solar system every 33⅓ years. Each time the comet passes closer to the Sun, it leaves a “river of debris” in its wake: a dense trail of dusty debris. A meteor storm would be possible if Earth directly impacted a trail of fresh dust ejected by the comet over the past few centuries. The “lion’s share” (no pun intended) of the comet’s dust can be found just ahead and behind Tempel-Tuttle. That comet last passed through the inner solar system in 1998. That’s why spectacular meteor showers were observed in 1999, 2001 and 2002, the number of which decreased thereafter. You may like The most famous depiction of the Leonids from 1833, actually produced in 1888 for the Adventist book Bible Readings for the Home Circle. The engraving is by Adolf Vollmy and is based on an original painting by Swiss artist Karl Jauslin, which in turn is based on a first-person account of the 1833 storm by a minister, Joseph Harvey Wagoner, on his way from Florida to New Orleans. (Image credit: Adolf Vollmy – Bible Readings for the Home Circle. Public Domain) When is the best time to look for Leonidas? According to the International Meteor Organization’s 2026 meteor shower calendar, the Leonids are expected to reach their usual maximum at 23:45 UTC (6:45 pm EST) on November 17, with around 15 meteors per hour possible under ideal viewing conditions. Other forecasts place the peak at slightly different times. Margaret Campbell-Brown and Peter Brown, meteorite experts at the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, predict that the peak of this year’s Leonids will occur at 00:00 UTC on November 18. Russian meteorite expert Mikhail Maslov believes the peak will arrive about a third of a day early, at 16:00 UTC on November 17. Several weaker encounters with traces of older debris are also predicted between November 17 and 19, although no major meteors. Storm is expected. A meteor streaks across the sky over Payson, Arizona, during the Leonid meteor shower. (Image credit: mdesigner125 via Getty Images) Almost no crumbs this year In September 2014, Comet Tempel-Tuttle was the furthest it could be from the Sun: 1.84 billion miles (2.96 billion kilometers). Since then, the comet has spent the last dozen years slowly approaching the inner solar system, but it is still 1.11 billion miles (1.79 billion kilometers) from the sun, which is still well beyond Saturn’s orbit. In contrast, at the point in the comet’s orbit where we will pass on Tuesday morning, there is nothing except a few scattered particles; Fragments likely broke off from the comet’s nucleus a millennium or two ago. What to read next So, this year’s Leonids are expected to show only low activity; “Maybe” at best you can see 10 to 15 Leonids per hour, but more likely the hourly counts will be less than that. The moon won’t be a problem; It is in the first quarter phase, but will set before 11 pm local time on Monday night, leaving the rest of the night dark. What to look forWatching a meteor shower involves lying down, looking at the sky… and waiting. Keep in mind that any local light pollution or obstructions such as trees or tall buildings will further reduce your chances of spotting a meteorite. Leo doesn’t start to come fully into view until after midnight, so this would be the best time to focus on looking for the Leonids. When dawn is about to break around 5 a.m., the Sickle will have risen more than two-thirds of the way from the southeastern horizon to the point directly overhead (called the zenith). Because the Leonids move in their orbit around the sun in a direction opposite that of Earth, they hit our atmosphere almost head-on, resulting in the fastest possible meteor speeds: 45 miles (72 km) per second. These speeds tend to produce bright meteors, which leave long-lasting streaks or persistent trains in their wake. A powerful Leonid fireball can be quite spectacular, but there are likely to be very few (if any) meteors that bright and very distant this year. 1966: Stormy Times It was a different story 60 years ago, in 1966, when anticipation was high for a potentially intense display of Leonid meteors. The previous year, Comet Tempel-Tuttle passed around the Sun and that same year was accompanied by an unexpected increase in Leonid activity, with bright meteors crossing the sky at one or two per minute, seen from Hawaii and Australia. The most optimistic prediction for 1966 came from Dr. Kenneth L. Franklin (1923-2007), chief scientist at New York’s Hayden Planetarium. Dr. Franklin had carefully examined the orbit of Comet Tempel-Tuttle and concluded that “…the position of the comet is approximately what it was in 1833. Therefore, a dramatic shower such as that which occurred that year may still be in sight by 1966.” Based on Dr. Franklin’s prediction, a “meteor party” was planned for the peak night of the Leonids in Central Park. New Yorkers of all ages were invited to gather on the Great Lawn at midnight to watch the shooting stars. Ten thousand people attended, but unfortunately the skies were hopelessly cloudy. But across the central and western United States, where skies were mostly clear, the Leonids were falling at a rate described by many as “too numerous to count.” An observer stationed north of Mission, Texas, said the meteors falling in all directions gave the impression of a “gigantic umbrella,” which appeared to “cascade” from Leo’s head. Perhaps the best views were those of California and Arizona. At the Table Mountain Observatory near Wrightwood, California, a resident astronomer commented that he and a colleague “…watched a meteor shower, turn into a meteor shower, and finally into a meteor storm, too numerous to count at 3:50 a.m. Pacific time. We instinctively tried to shield our upturned faces from imagined celestial debris.” From Kitt Peak, 6,850 feet high in southern Arizona, thirteen amateur astronomers watched the Leonids fall at the astonishing speed of 40 per second (144,000 per hour). Of Sun, Moon and Stars by Agnes Giberne. (London, 1884). This artwork shows the Leonid meteor storm over Greenwich, London, in 1866. (Image credit: Photo by Oxford Science Archive/Print Collector/Getty Images) Looking to the future. . . In 2005, French meteorite expert Jeremie Vaubaillon published a technical paper with two colleagues in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics that forecast Leonid activity for years to 2100. Unfortunately, in the year 2029, Jupiter is expected to knock Comet Tempel-Tuttle off its current path through space, making it nearly impossible (at least until the early 22nd century) to see a repeat of the Great Storm. Leonids of 1966. But Vaubaillon expects the next big Leonid outbreak to occur in the year 2034, when rates could reach up to 2,000 per hour. That’s only 8 years from now. Mark your calendars. Joe Rao serves as an instructor and guest lecturer at the Hayden Planetarium in New York. He writes about astronomy for Natural History magazine, Sky and Telescope, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, and other publications.
