New Zealand’s right-wing coalition, led by the National Party, hopes to cling to power after Saturday’s tense general election. But the shape of the next government will not be clear until November 27. Here’s why the result remains unclear and why nearly 400,000 special votes yet to be counted could influence the outcome. So who won? It’s currently too close to say. Neither National Party leader Christopher Luxon nor Labor’s Chris Hipkins achieved victory on Saturday night. While preliminary results show Labor just ahead in the popular vote (29.3% to National’s 29.2%), National won more seats in parliament, 42 seats to Labour’s 36, under the mixed member proportional (MMP) voting system. It appears that 66 seats will be needed to obtain a majority, and it is not yet clear whether this can be improvised by the left or right bloc. What we do know is that there will be seven parties in parliament: probably Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori on the left bloc, and National, NZ First and Act on the right. Depending on what happens next, newcomer Opportunity, which has positioned itself as centrist, could hold the balance of power. Why don’t we have a clear result yet? It’s not typical for the two major parties to post such low numbers on the same night. With the current results, the right-wing bloc could form a government, but not all votes have yet been counted. The Opportunity party, which according to current results has won seven seats in parliament with its 6% of votes, crossing the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament for the first time, could play an important role. Opportunity party leader Qiulae Wong celebrates as her party crossed the 5% threshold on Saturday night. Photograph: Phil Walter/Getty Images Luxon previously said he would not talk to Opportunity and its leader Qiulae Wong, but might not have a choice. Talks cannot begin until Nov. 27, once all special votes are counted. What are special votes and what makes them so important? Special votes are those cast by people who live abroad or who voted outside their geographical electorate that day. This year, special votes total just under 400,000, according to the electoral commission. The results of special votes tend to lean to the left. In 2023, Te Pāti Māori won two more seats than the election night results suggested and the Greens won one. National lost two seats. This election is so close that one or two flipped seats could tip the balance of power between the coalitions. Why is everyone talking about “outstanding” after this election? New Zealand’s parliament is usually made up of 120 seats. Voters get two votes: for their preferred party and for the individual candidate in their electorate. There are 71 electoral seats and 49 list seats. The seats on the list are divided by parties depending on the proportion of votes they obtain. The party’s vote share should generally reflect how many seats that party wins in parliament. It’s a bit complicated, but if a party gets more seats in the electorate than votes, parliament has to expand to make room. This is known as surplus. On Saturday, both National and Te Pāti Māori gained more electorate share than their party’s vote, meaning parliament could be 10 or 11 seats larger. Should a surplus occur under the MMP? Not specifically, no, but you can accommodate it. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, there have been five surpluses, but this will be the largest parliament in New Zealand’s history. It is also the first election in which political groups have loudly and specifically asked voters to only give them the vote of the electorate, to create a surplus. Te Pāti Māori are on track to win five of seven seats in Māori electorates with this strategy, while several right-wing groups called on their supporters to vote for the current Act or NZ First coalition partners, while backing MPs in the national electorate. National, which will have five or six seats outstanding, warned against this, apparently to no avail. Critics say this strategic voting undermines the spirit of MMP, which New Zealanders voted for in the 1990s after a series of skewed results under the first-past-the-post system. Since 2012, two reports have proposed abolishing the surplus, but the governments of the time chose to ignore them. When will we know who the next government will be? It could be December until the final result is known, just in time for Christmas.
