New Zealand voters sent a clear message to both main parties last night. They expect more. In a resounding rejection of the incremental political managerialism that has characterized governments led by the main parties over recent decades, seven in 10 voters switched to the Labor Party and the same number jumped to National. Between them, the two parties received just over half of the votes, 58% on election night. It was the lowest combined major party vote in history. Instead, a large proportion of the electorate shifted their partisan vote toward the more transformational minor parties, those with a clearer sense of purpose and vision for the country. Both Act and the Greens recorded the best results in their history. New Zealand First had its best result since 2002. Te Pāti Māori won more seats than expected. Opportunity crossed the 5% threshold for the first time, to win seats in parliament, and could be decisive on November 27, when the count ends. This was never going to be a final result or a government decided on election night. For months, polls had predicted a very close result that would ultimately depend on the counting of “special votes” cast mainly by people outside their electorate or abroad. That prediction was accurate. As was the prediction that the two major parties would be neck and neck. The Labor Party won 29.3% of the party votes and the National Party 29.2%. The major parties have no one to blame for this stalemate except themselves. Not only did his vision and policy offerings fail to work, but for the past four years two middle-aged men called Chris (Luxon, the leader of National and Hipkins for Labour) have struggled to excite the electorate. The campaign strategies of both parties failed. Luxon and Hipkins spent much of the campaign attacking each other, while the real damage to their party’s numbers came from minor parties on their own side of the political spectrum. Like the family in Judith Kerr’s The Tiger Who Came to Tea, Luxon and Hipkins held the door open and passively watched their guests raid the pantry. Neither major party will feel comforted by the outcome. Labor improved by 2.2 points and two seats in 2023, but it was not enough to govern with the left bloc that night. Nacional fell 8.3 points and the cost was brutal. Because Nacional won more electorates than its party’s share of votes, it does not obtain any seats on the list. Senior figures relied on on the list are likely to have disappeared, including vice-president and finance minister Nicola Willis, justice minister Paul Goldsmith, speaker of the house Gerry Brownlee and senior MP Chris Bishop. They may have been abandoned by National’s party vote, but in a quirk of the MMP voting system, National was still able to retain more seats from the electorate than its share of the party vote, causing a surplus and giving the party more seats overall. Parliament normally has 120 seats and the majority is 61. On election night, the size of the chamber had increased to 131, with six seats outstanding for National and five for Te Pāti Māori. That raises the bar to 66. On election night, the coalition passed it with one seat to spare: 42 from National, plus 25 from ACT and NZ First. Voters outside Khandallah Town Hall on election day in Wellington, New Zealand. Photograph: Marty Melville/AFP/Getty ImagesSeveral hundred thousand special votes remain to be counted. In 2017 and 2023 the specials cost Nacional two places. This time, with National on the slope, the special offers are unlikely to cost National seats directly. But if Act or New Zealand First lose the party’s share of the vote to the left or National loses a nearby electorate (like Wairarapa, where its majority on election night was just 139), its one-seat margin will disappear. Luxon seemed to know this. When he finally appeared to address the nation at midnight, he gave no victory speech and admitted that while National was still the largest party in parliament and had a path to form the next government, the election was too close to call. Serious negotiations and compromises would wait until the final count on November 27. Until then, the government continues in interim mode. If the count holds, Luxon’s early decision to rule out working with Opportunity will have paid off with just one seat. Whether by choice or luck, he will have avoided eating his words and calling Opportunity’s leader, Qiulae Wong. But if the specials move even one seat, that decision is back on the table. Nor will a one-seat majority facilitate government. In a closed parliament, every government MP is a kingmaker. An MP with a grievance or a grudge over the leadership can demand a ransom from the government. The defection of a single member could bring it down. The same could happen with a by-election, if an MP from the electorate dies, resigns or becomes caught up in a scandal. Luxon ruled out anyone who could make changes. Last night’s score may have given him a 67.
