The attacks on supermarkets could fit a pattern of collaboration between state services and the criminal underworld that has long been observed in Russia. “As geopolitical tensions rise, I expect more of them to collaborate with criminal groups or pose as criminals, using ransomware and extortion as cover for state targets,” said Joseph Rooke, senior director at cyber intelligence firm Recorded Future. There were numerous plausible explanations for the first round of meatpacking attacks in France, from bored teenagers to a disgruntled former employee. But those attacks highlighted to foreign adversary nations how easy it is to attack supermarkets and the level of disruption and confusion it can cause. Although many supermarket chains reported that only a small number of their stores were affected, the attacks caught people’s attention and conveyed the message that distant cyber attackers can attack critical services. “Cyber attacks do not need to be designed as psychological operations to have cognitive effects,” said Charl van der Walt, head of security research at Orange Cyberdefense. “At this scale, and also with the repetition of this happening, I’m no longer very convinced that this is someone very innocent,” said Inti De Ceukelaire, a cyber researcher. Russia’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Belgium’s Federal Prosecutor’s Office on Monday confirmed local media reports that it had opened a criminal investigation into the attacks. Counterfactuals Experts cautioned that other potential culprits remain entirely plausible. “All options seem to be open as to who could have done this, from state actors to lone actors,” said James Sullivan, director of cyber at the British think tank RUSI.
