Kimi Antonelli will become more than just Formula 1’s youngest world champion if, as seems almost certain, he clinches the 2026 title at the Mexican Grand Prix later today. The 20-year-old needs just two more points, equivalent to ninth place, from the remaining races to be champion, while mathematical rivals George Russell and Lewis Hamilton need to win the rest of this season’s races. Antonelli’s campaign already statistically highlights past first-time title winners. He will be the 36th F1 world champion, but he should be in the minority as 20 of them won their first title in a decisive race. Antonelli, by comparison, is moving towards the title and is ready to get it after 19 rounds. That will be with 82.6% of the season completed, by that metric the fifth fastest among first-time title winners. He maintains that position even if this season drops to 22 rounds, regardless of how the calculation is adjusted. Those ahead are led by Nigel Mansell, who finally won his only championship at the age of 39 in 1992 and sealed it when just 68.8% of the season had elapsed. However, he was a veteran of title fights dating back to 1986. Jim Clark (70% of the 1963 season) and Jackie Stewart (72.5% of the 1969 season) are next. The only other driver who won faster than Antonelli seems was Alberto Ascari (75% of the 1952 season), when the world championship was contested with Formula 2 machinery. Antonelli is set to be one of only three drivers in the last 30 years who have sealed their first titles before the last round. That will put him in the illustrious company of Fernando Alonso (89.5% of the season in 2005) and Jenson Button (94.1% of the 2009 season). All of these championships were won with different machines against different levels of opponents, but Antonelli’s also stands out as something of an easy win. Even among the 16 first-time title wins that didn’t make it to the final round, some were genuine title fights that dragged on well into the season before tipping in one driver’s favor. For example, Alain Prost’s 1985 championship for McLaren was sealed with two races to spare, but Ferrari’s Michele Alboreto was right there with him before failing to score in the final five races. Alan Jones (1980), Button and Ayrton Senna (1988) and Alonso were part of real battles. And while it can be argued that Mercedes’ dominance played a part in this, Russell’s performances in the second car show that it could have looked like a profoundly different season without Antonelli’s brilliance.
