President Donald Trump’s nightmare scenario is taking shape.Colin McPherson/Corbis via Getty Images Democrats have received a major vote of confidence from polling guru Nate Silver in their bid to flip a Senate seat in Kansas. The statistician has changed his grade of the Kansas race from “Lean D” to “Lean D” in his Silver Bulletin Substack, a surprising turn for a race in a ruby red state that once appeared poised to re-elect Republican Sen. Roger Mariscal. It’s been less than a month since Silver changed the race from “Lean R” to “Tossup,” underscoring how quickly the political landscape has changed for Marshall and his Democratic rival, Adam Hamilton. If the polls are correct, Sen. Roger Marshall is set to be the first Republican to lose a Kansas Senate race in nearly a century. with 45 percent backing the Republican incumbent. Silver’s polling average now puts Hamilton at 49 percent, down from 47.4 percent before the Emerson poll was released, while Marshall remains just below 46 percent. The Emerson poll follows a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday that also showed Hamilton leading by four points. going. President Donald Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race there since 1932. Trump was scheduled to appear at a rally Saturday on behalf of Marshall, but abruptly canceled his in-person appearance in favor of a television rally. He then changed course on Friday and said he now plans to campaign for senator on Sunday in Salina. Republicans across the country have been grappling with a difficult political environment, largely driven by Trump’s war and the resulting rise in prices. In Kansas, average gasoline prices have risen more than a dollar since the war began, while diesel has risen more than $2.50. Hamilton, senior pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate in April. Marshall, however, has received particular criticism for the apparent lack of urgency in his re-election campaign. “I think Roger Marshall probably wins the award for running perhaps the worst campaign, and he could have dropped out of this race sooner,” Report’s Cook Political Jessica Taylor said Friday on Inside Politics with Dana Bash. “I know the NRSC told its incumbents, ‘You need to be prepared. This is a tough cycle,'” he said. “And he was one of those who apparently ignored that.” Unlock one year of full access to The Daily Beast for $35.What’s includedUnlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersComment accessDaily crosswordSneak peek at releases and eventsAutomatic renewal for $5.99 per month. Cancel anytimeWhat’s includedDiscounted annual rate – save 47%Unlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersComment accessDaily crosswordSneak peek at releases and eventsAutomatic renewal for $59.99/year. Cancel anytimeBest valueWhat’s includedDiscounted annual rateFull access to the Daily Beast Substack ($60 value)*Premium ad-free readingUnlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersComment accessDaily crosswordSpoiler for releases and eventsAuto-renew for $119.99/year. Cancel anytime*Access to Substack provided by the next business day, using your subscription email. Choosing the Premium plan constitutes your permission to share your subscription email with Substack and your acceptance of Substack’s Privacy Policy. It looks like you already have a subscription! It’s ready! Thanks for subscribing. Back to Plans Subscription $0.00 Total $0.00 Continue with Google Continue with Facebook Loading subscription options Sign up below to read this article for free, or subscribe to unlock unlimited access to The Daily Beast. Subscribe Register What’s included Unlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersAccess to commentsDaily crosswordSneak peek of releases and eventsAutomatic renewal at $5.99 per month. Cancel anytimeWhat’s includedDiscounted annual rate – save 47%Unlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersComment accessDaily crosswordSneak peek at releases and eventsAutomatic renewal for $59.99/year. Cancel anytimeBest valueWhat’s includedDiscounted annual rateFull access to the Daily Beast Substack ($60 value)*Premium ad-free readingUnlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersComment accessDaily crosswordSpoiler for releases and eventsAuto-renew for $119.99/year. Cancel anytime*Access to Substack provided by the next business day, using your subscription email. Choosing the Premium plan constitutes your permission to share your subscription email with Substack and your acceptance of Substack’s Privacy Policy. Do you already have an account? Sign in It looks like you already have a subscription! You’re ready! Thanks for subscribing. Back to plans Subscription $0.00 Total $0.00 Continue with Google Continue with Facebook Loading subscription options
