House Democrats appear to be flirting with one of the biggest popular vote victories in decades. CNN’s poll of polls shows them leading the so-called “generic vote” by 9 points, thanks in large part to President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity. The last time either party won the House popular vote by at least 10 points midterm was in 1986. But more than the Senate, the battle for the House is difficult to follow. There are so many races (435 of them, to be exact) and it’s hard to know which ones are important. How can you tell if Democrats are simply running for the 218 seats needed for the majority (which they are expected to win) or riding a wave? The road to the 2026 midterm elections begins now. We’ve picked some races that will indicate whether Democrats are gaining seats, whether that’s enough for a majority, and whether a wave or even a tsunami is building. Follow these races on election night to see how well the Democrats are doing. This is the kind of election that Democrats should really win, under any circumstances. California’s 1st District: This should be the easiest election for Democrats, after the district was redrawn to have favored Kamala Harris by 12 points in 2024. Republican Rep. James Gallagher is seeking reelection, but if Democrats can’t win here, they’re in for some shocking results. Nebraska’s 2nd District: Given the retirement of moderate Republican Rep. Don Bacon and this Omaha-area district’s slight blue trend, this should be a win for Democratic political activist Denise Powell. New Jersey’s 7th District: This is a swing district in a state that moved Democratic between the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 state election. Combine that with Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s unexplained months-long absence (he later cited treatment for depression) and the fact that a major Republican super PAC recently withdrew money from this district, and the signs of a Democratic surge are there. These are the seats where victory should mean Democrats are clearing the low bar for a majority in the House. (Technically they need to flip three Republican seats, but GOP redistricting in the middle of the decade has effectively raised that threshold by a handful of seats.) Arizona’s 6th District: It would seem telling that Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani didn’t show up a couple of weeks ago when Trump was in Arizona for a rally. (Republican candidate Jay Feely, who is running in the state’s first open district, was not there either.) Ciscomani has a bona fide swing district that should be very accessible to Democrats if they are having a good night. Iowa’s 3rd District: Republican Rep. Zach Nunn made big news in September by voting to limit Trump’s authority in the Iran war. He comes from a district that favored Trump by 4 points in 2024, but Democrats appear to be gaining significant ground in Iowa, racing to flip three House districts and win the Senate and gubernatorial elections. Texas District 34: The GOP turned Democratic Rep. Vicente González’s district into one that Trump would have won by 10 points. House Speaker Mike Johnson has staked his job on filling seats like this, saying at a recent campaign event, “South Texas will literally decide the majority in Congress.” But polls show Hispanic voters have shifted significantly toward Democrats since then. That means they should really keep this seat if they want to get a majority. If Democrats are winning these seats, they are probably looking at an electoral wave of at least some kind. Kentucky’s 6th District: This district, which Republican Rep. Andy Barr is vacating to run for the Senate, favored Trump by 15 points, but Republican candidate Ralph Alvarado began distancing himself significantly from Trump in August. This will also be the first major House race in which the polls will close (at 6 pm ET). Montana’s 1st District: This is another open seat race in a double-digit Trump district that has looked competitive for a while. And Democrats have chosen the kind of candidate who can seemingly put it into play: populist union leader and former paratrooper Sam Forstag, who will face off against Republican Army veteran Aaron Flint. Pennsylvania’s 1st District: In this swing district, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, perhaps the House GOP’s most prominent moderate, has proven remarkably resilient over the years. In fact, he won by 13 points in 2024 even though Trump narrowly lost his district. But these are the types of incumbents that tend to lose in a wave. Winning these districts would make 2026 one of the largest midterm election waves in recent history. Colorado’s 4th District: Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert has had her share of personal problems (see: “Beetlejuice”). But it was supposed to be safe when it flipped to a deeply red eastern Colorado district in the 2024 election. The combination of its issues and the environment means this Trump +18 district is up for grabs. Missouri’s 2nd District: Republican Rep. Ann Wagner won by double digits in 2022 and 2024, but a spirited challenge from Democrat Fred Wellman has put this race on the radar screen. The district is not overwhelmingly conservative in Trump +8, but Wagner has proven to be a solid incumbent, the kind you really don’t expect to lose. New York’s 21st District: One of the first big signs of Democrats’ electoral momentum last year was when Trump withdrew Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to become United Nations ambassador because Republicans were worried about losing her Trump +21 district in a special election. It was practically unthinkable at the time that they would have to defend it also in the general elections, when such setbacks are not so common. But Stefanik is withdrawing and Republican candidate Anthony Constantino may lose. If these seats turn blue, Tuesday could be a Republican blowout of epic proportions. Kansas’s 2nd District: If Democratic vet Don Coover can upset Republican Rep. Derek Schmidt in this Trump +20 district, it will probably be because Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton did so well that his coattails pushed Coover over the line. Texas’ 9th District: When Republicans redrawn this state’s congressional map to try to gain up to five additional seats, this district (which Trump also would have won by 20 points) was supposed to be the second easiest of the five. But some outside GOP groups have moved to shore up Republican Alex Mealer after a poll showed a single-digit race. Wyoming At-Large District: The hurdle in the internal elections recently drew attention by moving this open statewide race, where Trump won by 46 points, from “solid Republican” to simply “likely Republican.” He cited Trump’s problems and how divisive Republican Secretary of State Chuck Gray has been. If Democrat Lisa Kinney can pull it off, the 2026 election will be historic.
