Silver attacked the Trump administration with a scalpel. Statistician Nate Silver has drawn a clear lose-lose outcome for Donald Trump in the midterm elections. The political analyst appeared on CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS on Sunday, with the host noting, “Their model at this point says Democrats have about a 75, 76 percent chance of winning the Senate and a 95 percent chance of winning the House.” Those probabilities come from FLIPR, the forecasting model that Silver runs on his Substack, Silver Bulletin. Newsweek reported that their model improved Senate Democrats’ chances from “Lean D” to “Likely D.” Silver explained that behind the pro-Democratic prediction was a set of specific, diverse and quite dire Republican statistics. Nate Silver explained the factors built into his very high percentage predictions that Democrats would win both the Senate and the House. “If you step back and think about ‘what are the background conditions in this election,’ you have gas at four dollars and 30 cents a gallon,” he said. “You have a president with a 37 percent approval rating,” he added of Trump’s declining popularity, while noting the common voting trend: “You have a long history of poor performance by the president’s party in the midterm elections, including in 2018, when under President Trump, the Republican Party lost 41 seats in the House.” We can also talk about early voting data.” Zakaria disputed Silver’s bold percentage conclusions, noting, “What worries everyone is that the 2016, 2020, and ’24 polls underestimated support for Trump. Trump voters who don’t reveal their preferences.” “I don’t think it’s fair to assume that there will be shy Ken Paxton voters or shy Roger Marshall voters,” Silver said. “Republicans didn’t outperform their polls in 2018 or 2022. The midterm polls were pretty even.” Toward the end of their conversation, Zakaria asked Silver to confirm the two main metrics he weighs in his evaluations. The host first clarified the “generic voting in which Democrats are leading by a long shot,” followed by Trump’s approval rating. Referencing statistics from his CNN colleague Harry Enten, Zakaria described: “It’s the lowest approval rating for any president before the midterm elections. Worse than Harry Truman in 1946, worse than Bush in 2006. And in both cases, of course, that party lost both the House and the Senate.” “The third number I looked at is gas prices,” he said. Suggesting that empty pockets were one of Republicans’ most prominent threats, he mused, “What if there was another price increase before Election Day? That, you know, every time you see a gas station is basically an ad for Democrats.” Unlock a year of full access to The Daily Beast for $35.What’s includedUnlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersComment accessDaily crosswordRelease preview and eventsAutomatic renewal for $5.99 per month Cancel anytimeWhat’s includedDiscounted annual rate: save 47%Unlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersComment accessDaily crosswordSneak peek at releases and eventsAutomatic renewal for $59.99 per yearBest valueWhat’s includedDiscounted annual feeFull access to the Daily Beast Substack (value of. $60)*Premium ad-free readingUnlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersComment accessDaily crosswordSneak peek at releases and eventsAutomatic renewal at $119.99/year Cancel anytime*Access to Substack provided by the next business day, using your subscription email Choosing the Premium plan constitutes your permission to share your subscription email with Substack and your acceptance of Substack’s Privacy Policy. Substack. It looks like you already have a subscription! You’re done! Thanks for subscribing. Back to Plans Subscription $0.00 Total $0.00 Continue with Google Continue with Facebook Loading Subscription Options Sign up below to read this article for free or subscribe to unlock unlimited access to The Daily Beast. dailyRelease & Event Sneak PeekAutomatic Renewal at $5.99/month Cancel AnytimeWhat’s IncludedDiscounted Annual Rate: Save 47%Unlimited Access (Web + App)Exclusive Ad-Free NewslettersComment AccessDaily CrosswordRelease & Event Sneak PeekAutomatic Renewal at $59.99/YearlyBest ValueWhat’s IncludedDiscounted Annual RateFull Access to Daily Beast Substack. ($60 value)*Premium ad-free readingUnlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersComment accessDaily crosswordSneak peek at releases and eventsAutomatic renewal at $119.99/year Cancel anytime*Access to Substack provided by the next business day, using your subscription email Choosing the Premium plan constitutes your permission to share your subscription email with Substack and your acceptance of Substack’s Privacy Policy. Substack. Already have an account? Sign in It looks like you already have a subscription! You’re ready! Thank you for subscribing. Subscription $0.00 Total $0.00 Continue with Facebook Loading subscription options.
