Brent crude nears $120 as rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis fuel another weekly rally in oil prices, putting fresh pressure on Trump. Friday, October 23, 2026 The slow advance of oil prices towards the $120 per barrel mark is a nightmare scenario for US President Trump, even though there have been few fundamental changes in crude oil markets. A slight decline in freight rates and a pervasive flattening of backwardation curves reduced spreads for most grades globally, offsetting some of the pressures from higher crude oil benchmarks. Be that as it may, the escalation of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis paved the way for another 4% weekly gain, with ICE Brent trading around $117 per barrel. The first Russian diesel shipment is headed to New York. An unauthorized tanker, the Maltese-flagged Agioi Fanendes, left the Russian port of Primorsk on the Baltic Sea bound for New York, marking the first shipment of diesel under Trump’s deal with Moscow, with final delivery expected on November 7. Oil production in Libya falls after resurgence of protests. Libya’s NOC said unauthorized persons closed the valve on a pipeline serving the Hamada and Tahara fields, reducing output by 50,000 and 40,000 b/d respectively, as recurring protests jeopardize crude production that provides 90% of state revenue. Europe enters winter with gas at four-year highs. Europe’s TTF gas benchmark rose above €93/MWh ($30 per MMBtu), the highest level since December 2022, as tight LNG supplies from Qatar coincided with colder weather and storage peaking below 75%, leaving Europe heavily exposed ahead of winter. Aramco evacuates its headquarters after Houthi attacks. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) ordered staff to evacuate its headquarters in Dhahran and temporarily work from home after the Houthis attacked the headquarters, the first such move since the war with Iran began, and drone strikes also killed two people in the Shaybah oil field. Qatar seeks to rebuild its LNG supply base. QatarEnergy is seeking additional long-term cargoes from the US and potentially Asia after closing its first deal with US developer Cheniere (NYSE:LNG), securing 4 million tonnes of LNG per year until 2054, as domestic LNG outputs remain limited. Trump takes advantage of emergency diesel reserves. The U.S. Department of Energy is offering 315,000 barrels of diesel, a third of its reserve in the Northeast, to ease regional disruptions as global diesel exports decline, while presenting the loan as temporary relief as the first Russian shipments arrive in early November. Japan considers gradually eliminating gasoline subsidies. The Japanese government is considering gradually reducing gasoline subsidies starting in December as the program costs billions a month, quickly depleting a $20 billion budget, with average prices potentially rising from $4.1 per gallon now to $4.35 per gallon in January. Trump sees wind turbines as a security threat. US President Trump declared that imported wind turbines and their components were a threat to national security on the grounds of cybersecurity and foreign dependency, citing a Commerce Department investigation, and ordered trade officials to discuss the issue with their trading partners. Indonesia considers stopping gas exports. Indonesia could halt pipeline gas exports to neighboring countries as Jakarta seeks to prioritize growing domestic demand, which could be a major blow to Singapore as such a move would remove about 7 bcm of supply, equivalent to 45% of the city-state’s consumption. Mexico doubles its commitment to oil exploration. The Mexican state oil company, Pemex, committed to allocate $99 billion to its upstream business in the period 2025-2030, 80% of its entire investment budget, seeking to counteract the decline in production while crude oil production hovers around a meager 1.34 million b/d in 2026 to date. Kashagan Arbitration Court rejects $12 billion cost claims. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has rejected the Kazakh government’s $12 billion cost claims against the international oil majors operating the giant Kashagan field, saying it is too late to claim costs incurred between 2011 and 2015. The EU begins work on the 22nd package of sanctions on Russia. The EU’s draft 22nd sanctions package would add 12 individuals and 105 entities linked to Russian oil production, trade, refining, shipping and logistics, doubling the pressure as Washington and Moscow discuss broader bilateral economic issues. The oil spill in the United Arab Emirates threatens civil infrastructure. UAE authorities closed coastal areas around Umm Al Quwain and launched containment operations after an oil tanker – the VLCC Gem No.2 hit by missiles two weeks ago – began spilling oil, with currents carrying pollution toward desalination plants. Beijing orders an increase in domestic oil supplies. The Chinese government instructed state oil companies PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC to accelerate oil exploration and production to protect the country from supply shocks, going beyond the 2% annual growth rate with current oil production of 4.43 million b/d. The gas glut in the United States challenges the global rebound. Henry Hub gas futures fell to a two-month low of $2.66 per MMBtu as mild weather, recovering offshore supply and above-average US inventories outpaced record LNG demand, and calendar year 2027 futures fell to a 5-year low of $3.09 per MMBtu. By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com More Top Reads from Oilprice.com
