Ukraine faces growing uncertainty about its ability to sustain war against Russia as a series of moves by US President Donald Trump have raised new questions about Washington’s reliability as kyiv’s most important military partner. Trump’s deal with Putin to ease sanctions on Russia to supply diesel to global markets, as well as restrictions on US intelligence sharing with Ukrainian forces, have put President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a difficult position as winter approaches. Higher prices for diesel, essential for transporting goods and agricultural production, tend to drive up costs. throughout the economy and fuel inflation. With the November US midterm elections approaching, Trump is under pressure to reduce fuel costs. But experts told CNBC that the diesel deal would provide only a marginal financial benefit to Russia and would not have much influence on global energy prices. Its broader political implications may be more significant, potentially bolstering the Kremlin’s belief that it can extract concessions from Washington without making concessions on Ukraine. “Russia’s main benefit is political: Trump’s decision relieves sanctions pressure and undermines Western unity,” Sergey Aleksashenko, senior researcher and head of economics at the NEST Center, told CNBC. Diesel Deal Trump’s deal with Putin called for Russia to supply the world market with 4.8 million metric tons of diesel, the equivalent of about ten days of U.S. domestic demand, or about a single day of global demand. Experts say it will do little to affect prices. “It doesn’t even touch the parts; it’s very, very small,” Neil Atkinson, former head of the IEA’s oil markets and industry division, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday. Aleksashenko estimated that the initial part of the phased deal covering 1.8 million metric tons of diesel could generate up to $1.25 billion in additional export revenue in three months, equivalent to about 1% of Russia’s revenue. However, the benefit to Russia’s federal budget would be substantially smaller, less than $30 million per month, or less than 0.07% of monthly federal revenue. The deal was therefore unlikely to significantly strengthen Russia’s war finances, Aleksashenko said. Instead, its main benefit to Moscow is political, because it eased sanctions pressure and undermined Western unity without requiring Putin to make concessions on Ukraine, he told CNBC. The researcher also argued that the additional Russian diesel entering global markets is not enough to produce a noticeable reduction in consumer fuel prices in the short term. 2027. The biggest problem for Ukraine: “Instead of encouraging compromise, [diesel] “The deal likely increases Moscow’s belief that continued pressure will eventually lead to more Western concessions,” Maria Snegovaya, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC. Speaking to reporters in Brussels on Friday, Zelenskyy also warned that the diesel deal could set a precedent for further sanctions relief, while highlighting Ukraine’s continued dependence on US military technology and intelligence despite efforts to develop alternatives. “Sanctions will be lifted after gas,” Zelenskyy said. raised on something else. This will then trickle down to the banking system, to certain individuals, to the chemical industry.” Earlier this week, reports emerged that SpaceX’s Starlink military application, Starshield, has been restricted in Ukraine. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said in a post on White House, according to a Reuters report citing three officials familiar with the matter. CNBC has contacted the White House for comment. The consequences were severely felt in Ukraine. As Starlink speed limits were reduced, Ukraine became unable to shoot down some Russian drones this week. Ukraine transportation, Starlink restrictions emboldened Russia “If the United States limits the use of Starlinks on the battlefield, Russia feels this is the time to try to inflict even more pain and suffering on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure,” Derkach told CNBC on Friday. Russian authorities did not respond to multiple requests for comment from CNBC. A political blow The diesel deal was a political and moral blow for Ukraine and the Western coalition, according to Snegovaya. United States, which extends until April 2027, could facilitate Russian diesel exports beyond the initially announced shipment, potentially increasing Moscow’s economic benefits, he warned. “If [the] “The White House uses its military and intelligence support as leverage to limit Ukrainian attacks, the implications could become much more significant,” Snegovaya said, adding that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries have inflicted substantial economic costs on Moscow. Such a move could have much larger consequences for Ukraine’s efforts to weaken Russia’s war economy, he added. and its European allies as it appears to reward Moscow without gaining concessions while increasing pressure on kyiv, he said. The problem, Snegovaya said, is that achieving military autonomy for Europe and Ukraine is extremely difficult in the short term, and Europe has been slow to develop the necessary capabilities. “Nearly five years after the war, Ukraine and its European partners remain heavily dependent on the United States in critical areas, such as intelligence and missile defense. These dependencies are unlikely to be overcome during the remaining years of the Trump administration,” he told CNBC.
