The U.S. military has developed new attack plans that include potentially using the so-called “mother of all bombs” to attack Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites should President Donald Trump give the order to resume combat operations before or after the midterm elections, according to several U.S. officials familiar with the matter. Using the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Aerial Bomb or MOAB, the largest non-nuclear bomb in the U.S. arsenal, for the first time in the conflict with Iran would mark a notable escalation, although there are questions about how effective it would be in achieving any of Trump’s stated strategic goals or tipping the balance of the war, multiple sources familiar with internal military planning discussions about the weapon’s potential deployment said. Trump faces pressure to end a deeply unpopular war, as Republicans brace for a possible political backlash from voters in the upcoming midterm elections and there are few signs the two countries are close to a negotiated resolution after more than six months of US bombing. As the U.S. military continues to provide Trump with options for possible strikes against prominent Iranian targets, some officials continue to privately question whether the White House has a strategy that incorporates those plans in a way that could truly end the war, something only the president has the power to do. For months, Trump and his advisers have discussed options that could act as a “definitive” end to the war, at least from a messaging standpoint, aware of how unpopular the conflict has become among Americans. While some administration figures have characterized the war as essentially won, Trump has been more cautious in recent comments, stopping short of declaring victory and saying the United States still has unfinished business at home. Behind the scenes, Trump has also cast doubt on some outside allies who have encouraged him to simply bring American troops home and move on. Doing so, Trump has argued, would seem like a defeat. Over the course of recent weeks, White House advisers have held meetings to discuss various options for Iran. While Trump publicly announced that he would take no new action before the midterm elections, several advisers said privately that they did not know whether that statement was final or could change before Election Day. Trump has ordered the military to develop additional strike packages against Iranian targets that include “a lot of energy infrastructure” and the potential use of a MOAB, one of the sources told CNN. The same source said the phrase used was that this strike would occur “before the United States pulls back into the CENTCOM AOR (area of responsibility),” indicating that the administration could launch additional strikes, try to declare victory, and get everyone out quickly. A second source told CNN that military plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites, including Pickaxe Mountain, also explicitly call for the use of the MOAB. In recent months, Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack Pickaxe, where the United States and Israel believe Tehran has stored components of its nuclear program, even after suspending all combat operations earlier this year, and Trump continues to emphasize that his goal is to ensure that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. Another U.S. official noted that when the military plans, it develops a menu of options for policymakers that range from high to low. Higher-level targets, including those at great depth, require larger bombs, and the MOAB is the largest, the official added. But there are questions about whether the MOAB would be an effective munition to use against Iran’s nuclear facilities and other deep-sea sites. While the GPS-guided bomb is capable of destroying an area equivalent to nine city blocks, it likely lacks the ability to penetrate deep enough below the surface to destroy the suspected nuclear facility at Pickaxe, which is believed to be fortified with layers of granite, and other remaining Iranian nuclear sites, the sources said. What you need to know about the MOAB bomb Called the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, or MOAB bomb Nicknamed the “mother of all bombs” It is the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in the United States It weighs 21,600 pounds. “The MOAB is a massive information operation-type weapon that is great for clearing huge areas, but not much else,” a third source familiar with military planning discussions in Iran told CNN. “It’s definitely not designed as a deep penetration warhead.” If used, the MOAB would have devastating effects on the area it impacts, but likely only at the surface level, the sources said. And the bomb’s enormous blast radius would almost certainly raise concerns about the possibility of civilian casualties, particularly if used against Iranian infrastructure targets located near populated areas and in close proximity to non-military sites. Still, Trump could choose to use the MOAB as a psychological weapon at a time when the Iranian regime appears entrenched and unwilling to give in to his diplomatic demands. While U.S. officials warn that its deployment is unlikely to force Iran’s capitulation or achieve a strategic military victory, it could provide Trump with an additional option, short of restarting full combat operations, to alter the conflict’s current status quo. “Unfortunately, POTUS has put himself in a situation where he is almost forced to do something and, without munitions designed to penetrate that level… you have to consider the psychological effects for which the MOAB is well equipped,” added the third source familiar with recent planning discussions. Many within the administration, as well as outside analysts, agree that the only way to decisively defeat Iran would be through a major operation involving ground troops, a commitment that could potentially cost thousands of American lives. The Pentagon considers all scenarios, so those plans exist, but so far no one in the administration is advocating for such drastic action. Trump has indicated he has little interest in sending U.S. troops to Iran, but his desire to end the conflict as quickly as possible presents a political dilemma for a president who is well aware of how unpopular the war has become but has been unable to secure a diplomatic agreement to end it. Senior Trump administration officials and military planners have been focused, for weeks, on finding a way out that would give Trump a “symbolic” victory (at the very least) that he can try to sell to the American people without impeding a potential diplomatic breakthrough, starting with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, CNN reported. A fourth source familiar with recent Pentagon planning discussions on Iran told CNN that military officials had developed some options that would amount to a “fireworks show,” aimed at giving Trump a path out of the conflict even if those strikes fail to achieve their stated goals for starting the war in the first place. And despite Trump’s recent promise to postpone launching additional strikes before the midterm elections, the US military already appears to be preparing for possible Iranian retaliation should the president give the order. The next change of U.S. troops deployed to CENTCOM is also expected to take place in the coming weeks, according to a fifth source, a U.S. official who acknowledged that some personnel rotating out of the region may not be replaced by new service members. When asked about the plans, a White House official told CNN that they do not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist, adding that “President Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.” In response to CNN’s request for comment, a Pentagon official said, “The War Department plans for a wide range of operational scenarios to execute direction at the presidential and secretary levels and ensure mission success in any operational environment.” Developed during the Iraq War, the MOAB is an airburst-type warhead that explodes before hitting the ground to project a massive explosion from all sides. During the final stages of testing in 2003, military officials told CNN that the MOAB was intended primarily as a weapon used for “psychological operations.” Military officials said then that they hoped such a large explosion would shake Iraqi troops and pressure them to surrender or not even fight. As originally conceived, the MOAB was to be used against large formations of troops and equipment or against reinforced above-ground bunkers. The target set has been expanded to include targets buried beneath softer surfaces, such as caves or tunnels. Trump was the first US president to deploy the MOAB, during his first term when he authorized the military to use its most powerful non-nuclear bomb on ISIS positions in Afghanistan in 2017. See: The moment the ‘mother of all bombs’ exploded after being deployed in Afghanistan in 2017. See: The moment the ‘mother of all bombs’ exploded after being deployed in Afghanistan in 2017. 0:42 That attack had targeted a network of fortified underground tunnels that ISIS had been using to stage attacks against government forces, killing 36 ISIS fighters, Afghan officials said. The explosion destroyed three underground tunnels, as well as weapons and ammunition, but no civilians were injured, Afghan and US officials added at the time. At the time, the attack marked a dramatic shift in attitude for Trump, who advocated an isolationist, “America First” foreign policy during his first election campaign. Following the 2017 attack, U.S. military officials were pressed about whether the 21,600-pound bomb was necessary for that particular target and would likely face similar questions if the munition were deployed against Iran.
