With three weeks until Election Day, the Senate battleground is getting bigger. MS NOW is moving Kansas toward “lean Republican” and Minnesota toward “lean Democratic,” moving two seats that once seemed safer into competitive territory. Kansas Kansas joined our list of races to watch last month, when we categorized it as “likely Republican.” While we still give the GOP the edge in defending this seat, several factors have pushed it into a more competitive category: leaning Republican. On the one hand, polls continue to show Democrat Adam Hamilton neck and neck with incumbent Senator Roger Marshall. As we explained a few weeks ago, the national environment looks bleak enough for the Republican Party that even a state as red as Kansas could be decided by single digits this year. Hamilton, a well-known United Methodist pastor, appears to be a strong candidate, while Marshall has been dodging questions about his past medical billing practices and, as MS NOW recently reported, his campaign finances. Still, it is striking that polls have shown Hamilton tied or even slightly ahead of Marshall in a state that Trump won by 16 points. However, the surveys warrant some caution. Voters who backed Trump in 2024 are more likely to be undecided than those who backed Kamala Harris, a pattern visible in recent New York Times/Siena and YouGov polls. If those undecided voters finally swing toward Marshall, in line with their previous votes, he has room to gain some points. Polls also show a good split of votes, with Republican gubernatorial candidate Ty Masterson ahead of Marshall. But the bigger question is how many voters will actually back a Republican for governor and a Democrat for the Senate in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century. And while midterm polls have been fairly accurate on average in recent cycles, polls in individual states often miss by several points. It’s not hard to imagine that pollsters are once again struggling to reliably reach Republican voters. Trends in voter registration offer Democrats another somewhat encouraging sign. Statewide, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, between 45% and 26%. But recent months have suggested some energy on the part of Democrats: Democrats outpaced Republicans in new registrations by a 2-to-1 margin in August and September, according to the Kansas Secretary of State’s office. While new registrants are just a drop in the bucket compared to the Republicans’ overall lead, it is a markedly different pattern than in 2022, when Republicans outperformed Democrats during the same period. Kansas also has a sizable group of unaffiliated voters, who will likely play a large role in determining the final margin. Polls suggest they favor Hamilton. Finally, Republicans and their affiliated groups are acting as if Kansas is truly competitive. Vice President JD Vance visited the state last month to drum up support, and the Senate Leadership Fund PAC began spending heavily in this race in late September. It now has more than $10 million in advertising time reserved, according to AdImpact. This may reflect a lot of caution, since wave elections often bring surprises that benefit the party that comes out of power. Either way, it’s notable that Republicans feel the need to shore up support in a seat like this. More Articles Kabir Khanna Kabir Khanna, Ph.D., is Director of Elections and Analytics at MS NOW. Monitors elections and public opinion coverage, guiding the newsroom in interpreting data and accurately reporting on it across all platforms. Gabe Borelli Gabe Borelli is a Data Analytics Manager on the MS NOW Elections team. His expertise is based on public opinion and political science research. In her role, she analyzes demographic and polling data to identify polling trends, explain voting patterns, and provide context for elections and political coverage on MS NOW’s streaming and digital platforms. Shawna Thomas Shawna Thomas is the Political Director of MS NOW. Previously, she was executive producer of “CBS Mornings,” ran VICE News’ Washington bureau and was senior producer of “Meet the Press.” Hunter Woodall Hunter Woodall covers politics for MS NOW. He has reported on politics and presidential campaigns for The Associated Press and CBS News and on Congress for The Minnesota Star Tribune.
