Every investor has had a thought from time to time that goes something like this: “If I had bought that stock early enough, I would be rich now.” It’s a tempting thought experiment to go back and calculate how buying Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, or other companies soon after their initial public offerings (IPOs) might have changed your portfolio. And some investors are likely thinking this way about space exploration technologies (SPCX +7.36%) right now. After all, SpaceX has a leading artificial intelligence business, a successful rocket launch business, and a rapidly growing Starlink satellite internet company. So is SpaceX the stock that investors will look back on in a few years and wonder if they had invested $5,000 in it, would they be millionaires? I don’t think so, and here’s why. Image source: The Motley Fool. The math doesn’t add up: SpaceX’s stock price is about $160 as of this writing. Turning a $5,000 investment into $1 million would require SpaceX stock to rise nearly 20,000%. This is an almost impossible feat and very unlikely considering that SpaceX’s market capitalization is already $2 trillion. However, some investors remain optimistic that the company could see significant gains in its stock price. And there are some legitimate reasons to be optimistic about SpaceX. For one thing, the company has a thriving satellite Internet business. SpaceX says Starlink has 12 million paid subscribers, of which about 3 million reside in the U.S. The number of U.S.-based Starlink customers could reach roughly 15 million in just four years, according to analysts at Oppenheimer. Starlink accounts for about 60% of SpaceX’s top line and is the company’s only profitable business, with about $2.6 billion in EBITDA in the second quarter. An expanding Starlink business could boost SpaceX stock for years to come if the company can continue to expand its user base. Just don’t expect out-of-this-world returns for SpaceX stock because of Starlink. Space Exploration Technologies Today’s Change (7.36%) $10.89 Current Price $158.96 Key Data Points Market Capitalization $2.2T Market capitalization calculated using only publicly traded shares outstanding. Does not include unlisted, private or dual class non-tradable shares. Implied market capitalization may vary. Day Range $149.34 – $159.845 2 Week Range $104.83 – $225.64 Volume 286.4 KA Average Volume 92.8M SpaceX’s overspending is a problem for the stock. I think one of the biggest inhibitors to SpaceX stock gains is the company’s accelerated capital spending. SpaceX spent $28.5 billion in the first six months of 2026, a 309% increase from the first half of 2025. The vast majority of that amount was funneled into the company’s artificial intelligence initiatives, including building large data centers. The AI boom is underway and many investors have been quite patient with all the spending. But their patience is starting to wear thin for companies that are not profitable, which is not the case with SpaceX. If the company continues on its current capital spending trajectory, I doubt SpaceX stock will make significant gains from its current level. There are simply too many other AI stocks to choose from that spend less and still generate impressive returns for their shareholders. All of which means that if you don’t know where to put $5,000 right now, SpaceX probably isn’t your best option, and it certainly won’t help you become a millionaire.
