A major Republican super PAC is pausing its advertising spending in the North Carolina Senate race and launching a new advertising effort in Kansas, the latest sign that the fight for the majority is shifting to red states amid an increasingly difficult landscape for the GOP. The new measures from the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate GOP leadership, were first reported by Semafor and confirmed by two people with knowledge of the decision. Advertising investment decisions can provide clear signals about which races parties and outside groups consider most competitive and most out of reach. The SLF’s decision to direct resources to Kansas underscores how Democrats are putting traditionally Republican states in play as they try to pick up four seats to take control of the Senate. Democrats will need to win several states that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024, as well as defend seats in battleground states. As Election Day approaches, Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances as Trump’s approval ratings fall and voters express frustrations over high costs and the Iran war. The race in Kansas between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic Pastor Adam Hamilton has become more competitive down the stretch, even though the state has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since. 1932. So far, SLF has booked more than $8 million in airtime in Kansas, according to ad tracking company AdImpact. Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is in a closer-than-expected re-election race in Kansas. Eric Lee/Getty SLF had been active in North Carolina, where former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is facing former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper. In September, the group spent more than $17 million on the race, according to AdImpact. The group still has another $19 million in ads booked through Election Day, but has no plans to add more now. Trump and Vice President JD Vance also traveled to the state last month to boost Whatley, whom the president personally encouraged to run for the open seat. But the decision to suspend spending in North Carolina, a perennial battleground, is a sign that the race to replace outgoing Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is moving away from the GOP. Republicans have been pessimistic for weeks about their prospects in the state, with Cooper leading in recent polls and outspending Whatley. The party’s level of confidence in its chances of defeating Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia has also been declining, but a person familiar with SLF spending noted that the group has not stopped its spending in that race. Trump won Georgia by just 2 points in 2024. Still, the SLF has focused most of its resources on other closely contested Senate races. In September, SLF spent $78 million on ads in Texas through an affiliate group, and SLF itself spent nearly $33 million in Ohio. Elsewhere, the group last month spent $16 million in Michigan, $15 million in Iowa, $13 million in Maine, $10 million in Georgia, $8 million in Alaska and $5 million in New Hampshire, according to AdImpact. From October through the Nov. 3 election, SLF’s Texas group has booked $48 million in ads, while SLF will spend $40 million in Ohio, $18 million in Michigan, $17 million in Maine, $16 million in Georgia, nearly $14 million in Iowa, $8 million in New Hampshire and $5 million in Alaska. Trump carried Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska by double digits in 2024. Even as the SLF looks to spend its resources elsewhere, North Carolina Senate candidates are still preparing for a closely contested race. Whatley spokesman DJ Griffin said in a statement that Cooper recently noted that Democrats are often ahead “until they’re not.” “Late undecided voters decide elections in North Carolina, and most of those late voters tend to become Republicans,” Griffin said. “We are confident we have the resources to highlight career politician Roy Cooper’s 40 years of failures and win in November.” Cooper campaign manager Jeff Allen also suggested the race remains competitive, noting in a statement that a Democrat has not been elected to the Senate in North Carolina in nearly 20 years and describing North Carolina as “a 50-50 state.” “We are building a campaign to win every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them, while Michael Whatley will continue to enrich himself at their expense,” Allen said.
