Eritrea has cut diplomatic ties with neighboring Ethiopia, escalating a long-simmering conflict between the two states rooted in territorial disputes and mutual accusations of interference. The move comes as fighting breaks out in northern Ethiopia between Ethiopian federal troops and an opposition alliance that Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea of supporting. But this time, the knock-on effects could go further, potentially fueling broader unrest in a region already plagued by numerous interrelated conflicts, analysts warn. Here’s what we know about the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the latest fighting in northern Ethiopia and what it could mean for the region as a whole: Why did Eritrea sever ties with Ethiopia? Eritrea announced it would sever ties with Ethiopia on Thursday, after Addis Ababa announced it would close its embassy in Asmara and expel 10 Eritrean diplomats. In a statement, Eritrea’s Foreign Ministry said Ethiopia’s actions had left it “no choice but to reciprocate in kind and sever all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia.” Eritrea’s ministry accused Ethiopia of carrying out a years-long “agenda of relentless hostility,” including infringing on its coastal areas and arming fighters opposed to the Ethiopian government. groups opposed to his government. Both sides have rejected the other’s accusations. The diplomatic split comes after months of worsening relations, driven largely by disputes over landlocked Ethiopia’s push for access to the Red Sea and accusations that Eritrea is backing the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which leads the Ethiopian People’s Survival Forces Alliance, a rebel alliance fighting for control of parts of northern Ethiopia. Have Ethiopia’s ties with Egypt and Sudan also been affected? Yes. Ethiopia accuses Egypt and Sudan of joining Eritrea in backing rebel forces in Tigray, worsening already strained ties with both countries. Ethiopia has long been at odds with Egypt over the status of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, which Cairo views as a risk to its water security and stake in the Nile. Ethiopia and Egypt have also expelled diplomats. Cairo ordered an Ethiopian diplomat to leave the country on Thursday, after Addis Ababa earlier expelled an Egyptian diplomat, state-linked Egyptian media reported. Egyptian state-linked broadcaster Al-Qahera News quoted an Egyptian official calling Ethiopia’s move to expel the Egyptian diplomat “regrettable and unjustified” and saying that Cairo responded in accordance with “the principle of reciprocity.” The latest conflict also has implications for Sudan, whose military-backed government accuses Ethiopia of backing rebel forces and is fighting its own civil conflict. Ethiopia rejects those accusations. “The conflicts in Ethiopia and Sudan have become more interconnected, with the Ethiopian government and the Sudanese Armed Forces accusing each other of harboring and equipping respective opposition forces from within their own borders,” Ahmed Soliman, senior researcher for the Africa program at think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera. “Egypt has also been dragged into the escalation due to its long-standing feud with Ethiopia over the Nile.” What is happening in northern Ethiopia? Tigrayan-led rebel forces have been engaged in clashes with forces backed by the Ethiopian government in the north of the country since last week. The fighting is concentrated in three regions: Tigray, Amhara and Afar. Al Jazeera Ethiopia bureau chief Mohammed Taha Tawakel reported that forces loyal to the federal government have made significant advances in the Tigray region, taking control of several cities and approaching the regional capital, Mekelle. Further east, in Afar, a pro-government armed group claimed on Thursday to have recaptured the town of Erebti, which rebel forces had taken earlier in the week. The pro-government group thanked the Ethiopian military for its “magnificent air support” and said it would seek further progress. Despite the pro-government advances, Tawakel reported that rebel forces still maintain what he described as a “strong rear link with Eritrea” along the countries’ border. He also reported growing fears that fighting could move to Tigray’s main urban centers such as Adwa, Axum, Shire and Mekelle. Some people have already started fleeing to Amhara and Afar, he added. Outside northern Ethiopia, the conflict appeared to spread to the capital, Addis Ababa, for the first time early Thursday, when an explosion was reported at the Defense Ministry. AFP cited a diplomatic source as saying that small drones were the most likely cause of the explosion. ACLED monitor.What are the roots of the dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea? Ties between neighbors have historically been fragile. In 1962, Ethiopia annexed Eritrea. An armed struggle for independence, led by current Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, secured independence in 1993. The countries fought another border war between 1998 and 2000. When Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, he took steps to end tensions and normalize diplomatic relations with Eritrea. During Ethiopia’s last civil war in 2020-2022, Eritrea even backed the Ethiopian government against the TPLF. But Abiy’s ambitions to seek direct sea access for landlocked Ethiopia have contributed to recent tensions, analysts say. Abiy has repeated that Ethiopia has the right to access the sea, words that officials in Asmara take as a declaration of territorial conflict with Eritrea. Could the current conflict spread to the region? Many analysts fear that this will be the case. Laura Hammond, professor of development studies at SOAS University of London, told Al Jazeera that this scenario is already underway. TPLF and the Alliance for Survival,” Hammond said. “There is a strong possibility that Eritrea will become more involved in the conflict on the ground inside Tigray if it continues for much longer,” he continued. “There is also a risk that the conflict will inflame relations with and within Sudan.” Martin Plaut, an analyst specializing in the Horn of Africa, also said there is a “real danger” that the conflict will spread. “The situation is extremely tense and it would only take one spark to ignite one. conflagration that could devour [Ethiopia and Eritrea]as well as neighboring Sudan,” he told Al Jazeera.
